Orcish inquiry confirmed that replays were down until Wednesday’s update, so I fell back on Plan B: come up with Plan B. I considered starting from scratch on a column without a walkthrough, but I didn’t feel I had the time. Then it occurred to me that I had a pretty substantial draft writeup already, and that there had been several places I could have written more but hadn’t, in anticipation of including game breakdowns. How about filling out the draft walkthrough with some deeper limited theory, and calling it a column?
Sounds like a plan (B). This means I have no game breakdowns for you this week, but there’s some extra meat in the draft walkthrough—hopefully enough for you to chew on until replays are back in order and I can finish up this draft.
Lessons Learned:
- If the backbone—nay, the central nervous system—of your Magic column relies on having a nonessential Magic Online feature enabled, have a Plan B ready.
- Check the functionality of your central nervous system every Wednesday at noon PST.
The Draft
While my belief in the superiority of Swiss is well-documented, I recognize that for a draft column, some 84 is warranted. If you have a strong desire for either 84 or Swiss walkthroughs, let me hear it in the comments—I want to give the people what they want.
Pack 1 pick 1: 
My Pick:
Wow, this is the kind of pack you want to open in sealed, not draft: my first six picks out of this pack would all find a home in Jund. I take one of the (Resounding Thunder)s, and I keep in mind the Jund heading downstream. I pick the non-foil (Resounding Thunder) on the print-run signal theory. Foils always replace a common in a pack, and commons have print runs some serious players try to learn.
If I take the foil, a print-run-savvy neighbor may think I’ve taken the common that the foil thunder replaced in the pack based on print runs. By taking the non-foil, I might clue that player in that the missing card in the run is another (Resounding Thunder). If they figure this out, they will say, “Ah ha! I know what the player to my right picked!”
Right before they take the other (Resounding Thunder) just the same.
Look, the chances of this affecting this draft in any meaningful way are close to zero (although it is 84). Heck, to be honest, the most I know of Alara-block print runs is that (Oblivion Ring) is next to (Branching Bolt) (worth knowing when P1P2 has a common missing and a (Branching Bolt) available). Print runs are never perfect—there are times when you open a ring or a bolt but not both, so maybe the thunders aren’t even in an identifiable run, here.
Ultimately, I just like implementing correct corner-case pick theory, and foils just clog up my collection anyway.
Pack 1 pick 2: 
My Pick: 
Is (Cruel Ultimatum) a bomb?
“Bomb” is a tough term to nail down in limited Magic—players throw it around so much it starts to lose meaning beyond “very good card.” A place I like to start is: a bomb is a spell that, when resolved, pulls you even in games where you were behind, pulls you ahead in games where you were even, and ends games where you were ahead.
(Cruel Ultimatum) certainly fits that description, but of course, it that definition doesn’t take into account casting cost or color commitment. (Cruel Ultimatum) for (mana=3)(mana=b) would be outright broken, but tack on an extra (mana=u)(mana=b)(mana=r) to its actual casting cost, and it would be unplayable.
So, is the ultimatum a bomb then? I don’t think so; the casting cost is simply too extreme for it to fall into that category. Another litmus test for a bomb is: do good players generally windmill slam it P1P1? (Battlegrace Angel), (Broodmate Dragon), these qualify. The fact that (Cruel Ultimatum) is even there for me P1P2 attests to its status as a non-bomb, and there are several other legitimate picks in the pack to boot.
Of those, (Rhox Charger) is the safest pick and (Bant Charm) the most powerful, but I go with a rare I’ve never drafted before, cannonballing into what I believe will be base-(mana=U)(mana=B) Grixis. I do this partly to avoid writing up a third consecutive Naya draft, partly because of my desire to try rares I haven’t played with before, partly because I expect the (Kederekt Creeper)s from this pack and the last to table, and partly because I’m passing good green/white here after passing good red in pack one.
I’m more interested in the signals I’m about to receive in the next few picks than the ones I’m sending with my first two picks, but I should certainly get a good Grixis hookup in pack two with what I’m shipping here—and everybody gets a good hookup in Alara Reborn. If Grixis completely dries up in the next few picks, I will either have to bail on the ultimatum and head back into Naya, or make the best of a disaster draft.
Pack 1 pick 3: 
My Pick:
Well, not dry for Grixis at least. It’s (Infest) or (Tidehollow Strix), and I opt for the sweeper, although the strix is certainly in the “(mana=u)(mana=b) splash (mana=r)” Grixis mold I’m looking for. (Infest) did right by me before, I’ll take it for a spin again here.
Pack 1 pick 4: 
My Pick:
More rare testing. (Corpse Connoisseur) is the more straightforward pick, but (Goblin Assault) is another rare I’ve never drafted but have wanted to try. It has always seemed sketchy to me—the “must attack” clause is obviously hand-tying—but others I respect have reported success with the card, so I decide to give it a shot.
There’s a pretty good (mana=g)(mana=w) deck flowing through here, but (Infest) over (Knight of the Skyward Eye) at P1P3 was the crossroads for bailing on Grixis for GWr.
Pack 1 pick 5: 
My Pick:
That (Rakeclaw Gargantuan) continues to show me the Naya deck I might have drafted, but it’s not a huge signal, and nothing worth veering two colors off of the Grixis plan to heed. Perhaps I should have taken the pano in case of 5c or a fourth splash color coming my way. Those just don’t seem like great options if I intend to resolve (Cruel Ultimatum), though.
Pack 1 pick 6: 
My Pick:
(Mosstodon) asks me why I’ve forsaken my comfort shard as I stay the course with the (Corpse Connoisseur).
Pack 1 pick 7: 
My Pick:
A 2/3rds panorama is solid at this point, and at least there’s nothing torturously Naya in the pack.
Pack 1 pick 8: 
My Pick:
(Resounding Wave) is a bit of a bellwether pick: it could make the cut, but it will be a sign that I’ve drafted a solid deck if it doesn’t.
Pack 1 pick 9:
My Pick:
(Kederekt Creeper) number one wheels, which means #2 probably will as well.
Pack 1 pick 10:
My Pick:
It does, but I’m surprised the (Resounding Roar) and the (Esper Charm) are still there over the (Sighted-Caste Sorcerer). It was a deep pack, though.
The rest of the round dries up as expected, and I sang these beauties:
I count eight playable spells out of the first pack, with one I’m not thrilled about. That’s about par, maybe above par for Shards. It’s good to assess your playable count between packs, as it can make the difference between choosing land-slot cards or spell-slot cards in Conflux and Reborn.
Pack 2 pick 1: 
My Pick:
Do I overvalue (Armillary Sphere)? Maybe a little, it is clunky, but in this case, I’m trying to resolve a (Cruel Ultimatum), so I think it’s more valuable for me than normal in this spot. What are my alternatives, here? (Unsummon) I like but isn’t first-pickable over sphere. (Goblin Outlander) is the same. (Viashino Slaughtermaster) is playable without the ability to pump, but also doesn’t seem worth the pick in this spot.
(Elder Mastery) is on-shard and better than most auras, but it has never been great for me. On the one hand, it comes down later when you are less likely to face a two-for-one, but on the other hand, that also means Villain may not have any discards for it. Another big problem with auras is that they take up a precious non-creature, non-removal spell slot in your deck. Factor in the need to fill some of those slots with fixing in Alara-block draft and you can run out of space pretty quickly. This is why (Scepter of Fugue) isn’t really a consideration for this pick, either.
Still, it’s an aura that basically turns the target into a double-hypnotic dragon, and if it hits for two cards, it has prepaid in full for any two-for-one that might be coming (if it hasn’t sent Villain’s removal spell to the bin in the process). If I didn’t have an ultimatum to cast I might pick it over the sphere, but not here.
Pack 2 pick 2: 
My Pick:
Sure, let’s shore up mana in two quick picks. I don’t see anything else here making a strong case to be in my pile. I’m tempted to try (Nyxathid), but it doesn’t have evasion and seems like a threat that your opponent can manage and contain.
Pack 2 pick 3: 
My Pick:
(Sedraxis Alchemist) is tempo monster if I can pick up the appropriate blue 1- and 2-drops for it.
Pack 2 pick 4:
My Pick:
I really want to turn my two (Sedraxis Alchemist)s into (Man-o'-war)s, so (Zombie Outlander), (Mistvein Borderpost), (Grixis Grimblade), and (Esper Stormblade) all go up in value for me now.
Pack 2 pick 5: 
My Pick: 
Now that’s the kind (mana=u)(mana=b) hookup I was looking for, although right now I am bone dry on artifact creatures. Esper obviously likes this more than I do, but I should end up with a couple other artifact creatures to hunt up with it before the draft is over, and a 3/3 flyer for 5 isn’t terrible anyway.
Pack 2 pick 6: 
My Pick:
(Vectis Agents) turns on (Sedraxis Alchemist) and is searchable by the (Sphinx Summoner), but it’s just not strong enough to take over the underrated (Unsummon). (Unsummon) is particularly good in a deck with twin (Sedraxis Alchemist)s and (Sphinx Summoner) under pre-M10 rules. I certainly hope to demonstrate some damage-on shenanigans with this deck.
Pack 2 pick 7: 
My Pick:
Hey! I was looking for you!
Pack 2 pick 8: 
My Pick:
I’m not a big fan of countermagic in limited, but at least (Countersquall) is cheap, making it a card you can keep the mana up for in the middle turns, really messing with a combat trick or crucial midgame removal spell. (Vectis Agents) as a weak maindeck card or (Controlled Instincts) as a strong sideboard card are also options here, and in retrospect I would take one of those.
Besides having to keep mana up for it, it also suffers from the “non-creature, non-removal” syndrome that afflicts auras. A draft deck can only have so many such cards before it is not affecting the board consistently enough to be effective.
Pack 2 pick 9:
My Pick: 
Sure, because why not beat that drum a bit more? As far as discard in limited goes, (Scepter of Fugue) is actually pretty good. It has reasonable casting and activation costs, is repeatable, and unlike one-shot discard, constantly forces your opponent’s hand. “You get no tricks or bluffs for the rest of the game” is a relevant effect for a card that may seem like it’s just sitting there doing nothing.
It is, however, another card that isn’t removal, fixing or a creature, and my pile is getting uncomfortably thick with such cards. We’ll see which of them make the cut.
Pack 2 pick 10:
My Pick:
Being the 5c guy isn’t totally out of the question with two spheres, but cutting (Sacellum Archers) may have been the superior pick. The rest of Conflux goes like so:
Well, the second (Countersquall) makes me wish I had taken the (Vectis Agents), but I’ll manage. I picked up another nine playables in Conflux if I include the (Scepter of Fugue) and one (Countersquall), so I’m looking somewhat flexible heading into Reborn. Two (Armillary Spheres) and an (Esper Panorama) have me feeling good about fixing, but I’d love a (Mistvein Borderpost) somewhere along the way. Really, though, I’ll need lots of creatures and removal from Reborn to feel good about this deck.
Pack 3 pick 1: 
My Pick:
Pretty straightforward: destroy target creature for two mana at instant speed in my colors. Check.
Pack 3 pick 2: 
My Pick:
I wince at all the great Naya picks before taking the on-color blade that turns on (Sedraxis Alchemist), which is clearly better for my deck than (Giant Ambush Beetle).
Pack 3 pick 3: 
My Pick:
That’s a relief, I thought I may have missed my opportunity for an (Esper Stormblade). A (potential) 3/2 flyer for 2 that turns on a turn-three (Sedraxis Alchemist) and is searchable by (Summoner Sphinx) is really the creature I was looking for out of Reborn. Naya continues to be scorching hot.
Pack 3 pick 4: 
My Pick:
(Sewn-Eye Drake) is a nice creature for the tempo-oriented deck emerging, here.
Pack 3 pick 5: 
My Pick:
Just kidding! You can read a more thorough debunking of the “Singleton Mind Funeral” strategy by myself and others in the comments of JBushEsq’s Musings: A Look at Alara Reborn Limited: Blue/Black, but I figured I’d take a moment to speak to it in the context of a pick where (Mind Funeral)’s supporters might actually take it.
I’ve drawn attention to the non-creature, non-removal factor as a significant drawback to three playable cards in this draft, and (Mind Funeral) is a fourth. Unlike the other three, though, unless it wins you a game through milling that you would have lost otherwise, (Mind Funeral) does nothing except re-randomize your opponent’s draws, potentially feeding unearth, (Vengeful Rebirth), or (Soul Manipulation) in the process.
I’m going to repeat that with emphasis for the benefit of anyone with even a shred of doubt that a singleton Mind Funeral is unplayable: unless it wins you a game through milling that you would have lost otherwise, (Mind Funeral) does nothing except re-randomize your opponent’s draws.
If you disagree with that, you are ignoring the math and can’t be helped until you stop it. If you agree with that, the question then becomes: what are the chances a drawn singleton (Mind Funeral) will win me a game I would have lost otherwise, and what is the overall cost to my deck strength to give myself that chance?
The answers are “slim” and “high,” respectively. If an opposing deck runs 16 lands, (Mind Funeral) is going to mill a quarter of the lands, which will conversely mill about a quarter of the deck on average, or about ten cards. Even with a fairly controlling deck, you are rarely going to see an opponent with a library under ten cards, and (Mind Funeral) serves a purpose only in that rare instance. All other times, you should be as happy to draw a (Mind Funeral) as you would be to draw the Queen of Spades.
Oh yeah, I had an actual pick to discuss, which came quickly down to (Veinfire Borderpost) vs. (Skyclaw Thrash).
My Pick:
Late (Skyclaw Thrash)es are one of the benefits of being the Grixis drafter, and I should have taken it here, particularly given the needs I identified at the beginning of this pack. If it had been a (Mistvein Borderpost) to turn on both the blades and the (Sedraxis Alchemist)s, it’s much closer, but I needed good creatures, and this was the spot for one.
Pack 3 pick 6: 
My Pick: 
Argh! There’s my (Mistvein Borderpost), but it’s there alongside a five-ticket card in (Uril, the Miststalker). I’d love the post, obviously, but I’m not passing a pack and a half for it. Perhaps knowing there is a good chance I’ll write a draft up should cause me to forego money picks, but the question of when to sacrifice deck power for ticket value is one I think is worth exploring.
Pack 3 pick 7: 
My Pick:
I may or may not run this, we’ll see what the deck looks like.
Pack 3 pick 8: 
My Pick:
My instinct is to take posts over the landcycling creatures in Reborn, but the (Igneous Pouncer) was the better pick here as a very playable threat. (Igneous Pouncer)s out of the blue can have a race-changing impact on a game.
I sigh again for the Naya deck that could have been as I ship the (Gloryscale Viashino) downstream.
Pack 3 pick 9:
My Pick:
It was either cut this or the (Cerodon Yearling).
Pack 3 pick 10:
My Pick:
I should have taken the (Jund Sojourners) as a (Zap), but with (Uril, the Miststalker), (Fusion Elemental), and two (Armillary Sphere)s, I was seriously considering adding a Plains and a Forest to the build and running Uril and the elemental. I wasn’t sure if I would or not at this point, and figured giving up a (Zap) to keep the option open was a fair trade.
Pack 3 pick 11:
My Pick:
Swiss…just Swi…oh, wait, this is 84. OK, I’ve demonstrated a clear card crush on (Colossal Might) so maybe I’m biased, but I’m surprised to see it here. (Sigil of the Nayan Gods), (Winged Coatl), (Kathari Bomber), and (Naya Hushblade) were all taken out of this pack over the (Colossal Might). Certainly some of those picks were by drafters who could cast the might, and I like might over all of those in a vacuum. I was hoping the bomber would make it back to me.
Pack 3 pick 12:
My Pick:
You’d rather just have a (Tidings) almost every time, but this is a twelfth pick that I’ve been wanting to try in Grixis, and will almost certainly make my deck despite being yet another non-creature, non-removal spell.
Pack 3 pick 13:
My Pick:
Visit the draft converter today!
The (Demonic Dread) could make my deck, particularly if it effectively increases my creature/removal count, but I don’t want to hit a timing spell like (Unsummon) with it, and it would be downright awful to hit a (Countersquall). I follow with a fourteenth-pick (Godtracker of Jund) and work on my deck. I build a 5c version with the Uril and the (Fusion Elemental), but neither seems quite powerful enough to warrant making my (Cruel Ultimatum) that much harder to cast. This is what I submitted:
The Deck
| Creatures 1 Zombie Outlander 1 Esper Stormblade 2 Kederekt Creeper 1 Sphinx Summoner 1 Dreg Reaver 2 Sedraxis Alchemist 1 Grixis Grimblade 1 Sewn-Eye Drake 1 Jhessian Zombies 11 cards Other Spells 1 Demonic Dread 2 Veinfire Borderpost 1 Unsummon 2 Armillary Sphere 1 Goblin Assault 1 Cruel Ultimatum 1 Drastic Revelation 1 Terminate 1 Scepter of Fugue 1 Countersquall 1 Resounding Thunder 1 Infest 14 cards | Lands 6 Island 4 Swamp 1 Esper Panorama 4 Mountain 15 cards Sideboard 1 Resounding Wave 1 Colossal Might 1 Countersquall 1 Uril, the Miststalker 1 Corpse Connoisseur 1 Firewild Borderpost 1 Fusion Elemental 1 Grixis Illusionist 1 Worldly Counsel 1 Obelisk of Jund 10 cards |  |
In Editor
The Spells
I definitely have concerns about this deck. As a result of all the non-creature, non-removal spells that were a recurring theme in my comments, the creature count is extremely low—11 creatures plus the (Goblin Assault), but one of the creatures is the (Jhessian Zombies), which I think of as fixing. I end up not running the (Corpse Connoisseur) because I have no other unearth to support it. 15 creatures is about average, but a low creature count doesn’t necessarily mean a bad deck—it just works best when the majority of the non-creature spells are quality removal, and that’s not the case here. Past the (Cruel Ultimatum), I have the excellent (Terminate), (Infest), and (Resounding Thunder), but the rest are a hodgepodge of fixing, card drawing, discard, countermagic, bounce, and cascade.
Speaking of countermagic, bounce and cascade, I somehow missed the (Resounding Wave) during deckbuilding. It should be in the main deck over either the (Demonic Dread) or the (Countersquall), since those two spells do not play well together. I think I caught this during sideboarding and made the swap for the (Demonic Dread) in some of the games.
This deck is ultimately a great illustration of why countermagic and discard generally aren’t high picks in limited. In constructed, countermagic and discard can be played in densities that allow the mechanics to be counted on and built around. In limited, countermagic and discard are essentially weaker forms of removal. While they can preemptively “remove” threats, neither help you come back from behind. Ripping a timely (Terminate) when you are up against it can easily turn a loss into a win. (Countersquall) and (Scepter of Fugue) in that same spot are not going to stave off defeat.
Not picking the (Skyclaw Thrash) or the (Igneous Pouncer) seem like glaring mistakes in the light of my final decklist.
The Mana
The mana base, counting the spheres and the (Jhessian Zombies), provides eight sources of red, 10 sources of blue, and 10 sources of black. This is way above par for what I try to hit for my colors in a limited deck, but again, I’m trying to cast the ultimatum reliably, which requires above-par fixing.
I could have played a Forest and a Plains and the (Firewild Borderpost), gone to nine sources for blue and black, three sources for white, and four sources for green. That move allows me to play (Fusion Elemental) and (Uril, the Miststalker) (and possibly my beloved (Colossal Might)). I didn’t quite have the guts to do it, but given the weakness of my creature base, it may have been warranted. I’m running a (Dreg Reaver), here…ouch.
The Games
I’m nearly in mourning over the comfortable Naya deck I could have had, particularly given the marginal 40 I ended up with, but we play the games because the best deck doesn’t always win. Join me next time, when—replays willing—I’ll try to prove it.
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