Waiting for Godot: ACR #5 – Swiss – Round 3

I win the roll and examine my seven:

This hand amounts to six mana sources and a (Zap). Not keepable—it would be asking for flooding. Sometimes keeping a hand like this will work out, but it won’t win as often as a random six.

Less land, more power. Not perfect, but I like it better. Let’s see where it takes me.

I miss my third land drop, but find a (Druid of the Anima) to approximate it. Villain goes Island, (Rupture Spire), Swamp, T3 (Windwright Mage). Not surprisingly, it’s a finals Esper matchup. I pull a Plains for Nayatron plus the druid on my fourth turn, and play out the (Rhox Brute). If Villain had an artifact in his graveyard I would consider the (Dark Temper) play, but it’s pretty straightforward to lead with the 4/4 here.

He has the (Sedraxis Alchemist) for a brutal tempo blow. They say (Man-o-war) is good…

(Windwright Mage) hits me for the four-point life swing before I untap, draw into (Qasali Pridemage), and recast the (Rhox Brute). This time he applies a more permanent solution to my brute in (Grixis Charm), and both life totals continue to head in undesirable directions. Villain caps his turn with a (Thopter Foundry), and I’m feeling the pressure. I pull a Plains, drop it, and consider my recovery plan.

With four three-drops and a (Qasali Pridemage), the only way I can maximize my mana this turn is to cast the pridemage with no activation mana available. The question is, then: do I need to use the pridemage while Villain is tapped out at the cost of playing a second spell, or can it wait a turn so I can spend all five mana this turn?

There are several relevant considerations:

• Between Villain’s life total and my lack of evasion, I will be winning a relatively long game if I'm going to win at all.
• I have no defense against flyers other than my removal, although I have two outs to a (Stun Sniper) that, left unanswered, would reduce (Thopter Foundry) to a life-gain artifact.
• The (Dark Temper) can deal with the (Windwright Mage) at some point if not now.
• The (Naya Charm) seems destined to be creature burn, but could bring back a blown (Qasali Pridemage) for another spin if (Naturalize) can do something for me that a (Lightning Bolt) can’t.
• If I tap out for two spells, he will have a window to remove the pridemage without me being able to respond.
• If I let him untap with (Thopter Foundry), I probably won’t be able to destroy it again this game without leaving at least one 1/1 flyer behind.
• If I take out the (Windwright Mage), it leaves him with the (Thopter Foundry) as his only artifact in play and three cards in hand, so the foundry may not even be an imminent threat.
• I can cycle the (Jund Sojourners) at some point to deal with one thopter token.
• If I cast two spells now and draw a land next turn, I will have six mana available, again leaving me unable to maximize my mana without stranding the pridemage without activation mana.

So yeah, Magic is pretty simple: just identify, parse, synthesize, and act optimally upon this kind of information in a few seconds, and then do it again next turn after the information has changed. No problem!

A friend of mine, on a bad run in the draft queues but a good run at the poker tables, recently declared Magic to be unequivocally more luck-based than poker. He is unequivocally wrong. You rarely have to deal with analysis of this depth in poker, whereas it happens constantly in Magic. This density of complex situations creates way more opportunities for skill to overcome luck in Magic than in poker. The best Magic players are the ones who can process this information correctly most often, and most quickly.

Back to the situation at hand. It’s tough to know exactly how threatening that (Thopter Foundry) is. If he has a lot of artifacts in hand or on the way, it could wreck me to leave it on the board. If he’s out of artifacts, though, it’s pretty harmless for now, especially if I take out the (Windwright Mage) this turn.

I decide to maximize my mana and play the (Qasali Pridemage) and (Dark Temper) the (Windwright Mage). If he plays a threatening artifact flyer next turn, I can use the pridemage on the foundry and my (Naya Charm) on the flyer, then cycle the (Jund Sojourners) to take out the 1/1 token at some point later.

Villain drops a land, casts a (Sewn-Eye Drake), and hits me for 5. I untap at 9 life, pull a (Sylvan Bounty), and reassess the board. Now what?

I had the (Jund Sojourners) earmarked for the eventual thopter token, but it clearly has to take out the (Sewn-Eye Drake), and now. The next play depends on the draw, which turned out to be (Wildfield Borderpost). I will put it into play, but do I attack with the (Qasali Pridemage), or leave him back on defense?

Again, it comes back to whether or not I intend to use the (Qasali Pridemage) on the (Thopter Foundry). If I am, I want the pridemage back on defense either to dissuade the alchemist from attacking, or to set up a stacked-damage response. The foundry isn’t that big of a threat until I am in a position to take out another artifact, though, so I decide that won’t be destroying it before my next turn, and attack.

I cast the (Wildfield Borderpost) and replay the land before passing the turn.

Villain attacks as expected, then makes life tough on me with a (Faerie Mechanist) revealing (Parasitic Strix). Any play before the end of the turn?

Villain has really turned the screws. I thought I was close to stabilizing, but now I am about to face three artifacts that need to die, and I only have two ways to do it. The strix is going to drain me for two, so my effective life total is 5. I consider cycling for land, but I may need the 8 life from (Sylvan Bounty) more than the Swamp at this point.

In retrospect I think the correct play is to blow the pridemage now to take out the foundry, but I decide to untap without a play. I draw (Bant Panorama) and have seven mana available. The play?

With seven mana, I like swinging with the pridemage, casting the (Matca Rioters), then saving three for the (Naya Charm) and one for the pridemage activation. I come close to this play, but not quite. He swings with the (Faerie Mechanist), and I make a pretty big mistake by underestimating the importance of the (Thopter Foundry), and use the (Naya Charm) on the mechanist without taking out the foundry first.

In my thinking at the time, I was extremely concerned about the (Parasitic Strix) about to come, and wanted to save the pridemage for that. The foundry is a much bigger threat, though. I can limit the flying threat to a 1/1 thopter token and the strix with the correct play, but instead he plays the strix, passes the turn, and I’m facing this scenario after I draw and play a Forest:

Even with the correct play I'm in a tight spot, but now it's even tighter. If I take out the strix, he has two 1/1 flyers plus a still-active foundry. If I take out the foundry, he'll have four power worth of flying. On his turn, the correct play was to take out the foundry. That mistake has changed the correct play for this turn. Now I’m better off taking out the strix on his turn, and keeping the fewest points of flying damage possible in the air. This means I have to hope he doesn’t have or draw into any more artifacts, or I will succumb to his air force for sure.

I know I’ll be using the pridemage on his turn, so I attack with the rioters and pass. He swings in with the team, and I have my first opportunity for a play that wouldn’t be possible post-M10. The question is, is it the right play?

The choice is either to take 2 from the strix but take out the (Sedraxis Alchemist), or make the post-M10 play and spare the alchemist but save 2 damage. The rioters will be able to hold off the alchemist if I let it live, but since I'm about to gain 8 life, I go for board control, and take out the strix with damage on the stack.

Now I’ve made my first pre-M10 move that changed the outcome of a play, but will it change the outcome of the game? Doubtful at this point. I’m still up against it, even if I’m back to 10 life. He plays a (Zombie Outlander) and passes, and I draw (Resounding Roar). I have the 8 mana to cycle, but with his pro-green man, there’s no reason to attack.

I pass, he drops me to 6 and casts a (Sanctum Plowbeast). I draw (Naya Sojourners), and it is effectively gg. Is there anything I can do to prevent defeat?

He can sacrifice the plowbeast and the foundry itself to the foundry, and put 6 damage on board that I can't stop. My only hope is to do nothing, bluffing a trick to keep him from making that play. I fail and go down the next turn.

Would better play against the foundry have changed the outcome?  Possibly. Had I played it correctly, he only would have had one 1/1 thopter token, a 2/2 flyer, and a pro-green bear. Five a turn would still have been tough, but I would have had at least one more draw.

R3G2

I bring in (Molten Frame), (Filigree Fracture), and (Nacatl Savage) for, I believe, a (Jund Sojourners), (Cavern Thoctar), and...something else? I will try to record my sideboarding more carefully, it's the one thing I can't pull from replays and draft captures. Here’s my seven on the play:

This is effectively a five-land hand, but a pro-artifact play on T2, all my mana including the Swamp splash, and a nice T6 in (Bull Cerodon) prompt me to keep.

I drop my (Nacatl Savage) while he cycles his (Jhessian Zombies), and I draw (Gleam of Resistance) and (Molten Frame) by T3. He has T3 Espertron and passes, so I cycle to (Sylvan Bounty) for my Swamp. T4 brings more land, so I swing in to his untapped Espertron, for once unconcerned by the prospect of an (Ethersworn Shieldmage). No response, and I pass hoping he’ll provide me with a good target for the (Molten Frame).

He makes a (Dreadwing) and a (Parasitic Strix), draining us back to even at 18 a piece. Use the (Molten Frame) on the strix?

I think it’s probably correct to burn the frame, here, but I decide not to. It’s a bit greedy, but in limited, it’s not a terrible thing to be greedy with key removal spells. In this spot, though, I think it favors me to get the strix off the board. It will cost him a lot of mana to race me with his (Dreadwing), and with a (Bull Cerodon) coming out to play soon, I should just take out the flyer now.

I pass though, and draw a (Filigree Fracture). I give him a chance to block the savage with the (Dreadwing), but he declines. Now that I have extra removal, do I take out the strix? With which spell?

The fracture is more flexible, taking out a wider variety of things, including (Thopter Foundry). However, I want to dig deeper into my deck right now, and the (Molten Frame) will still have lots of targets before this is over. I fracture while he's tapped out, and pull a Forest on the draw. I leave (Molten Frame) mana up, hoping he’ll cast a target.

Instead, he drops an Island, casts (Thopter Foundry), and taps out to pump the (Dreadwing). Ouch.

Obviously, if I’d known what was coming, I would have saved the (Filigree Fracture) for the foundry, but I like my decision given the circumstances. If I save the fracture and he plays out the foundry later with mana up—a much more likely scenario—I will never draw a card off the fracture anyway because he can sacrifice the target in response.

I pull (Rhox Brute), but the clear play is still to get going with the (Bull Cerodon). I drop him, swing for 5, and the race is on.

Naturally, he has a land and (Sedraxis Alchemist) to bounce the cerodon for a brutal tempo blow. He activates (Dreadwing) with his remaining mana, and the it’s Villain 9, Hero 10. I draw (Druid of the Anima), and playing out the cerodon remains the play. Do I attack with the savage, though?

I decide not to offer that trade when I have (Gleam of Resistance) in hand, waiting to turn that trade into blowout in a turn or two. My clock is short with his 4/1 flyer, though, and it may have been correct to apply maximum pressure in this spot. If he has to take 5 to make the trade, is that really a bad thing?

He ends up taking the damage anyway, dropping to 4. A bold play given the race at hand; he must have a plan.

On his turn he activates the (Dreadwing) to drop me to 6, and taps out for a (Windwright Mage), explaining his willingness to take some damage. I have a good use for my (Molten Frame), now. I draw into (Dark Temper), and look for the right play.

Winning seems like the right play. I cycle the (Gleam of Resistance) for a second Mountain, burn out the alchemist, (Molten Frame) the (Windwright mage) and swing for lethal damage.

R3G3

The (Dreadwing) and the re-appearance of the (Thopter Foundry) renew my fears that I am extremely weak against flying, and I call an audible in sideboarding to help with that weakness, bringing in one of my two (Darklit Gargoyle)s. I couldn’t figure out what to cut to get them both in, but I liked the idea of a cheap flyer that survives battles with thopter tokens, trades with (Dreadwing) and (Sewn-Eye Drake) without black, and trades with most flyers with black. Again, I’m not sure what I swapped out. Maybe the (Nacatl Savage)?

Back on the draw, I check my seven after Villain keeps his:

This hand preoccupies me with fixing in the early turns, but leads into a couple of fine five drops. This hand could lose to an aggressive start while I get my colors in order, but I have to risk it. I have something to do almost every turn through six, and I will be able to cast everything I draw.

I fix early as planned, while he (Rupture Spire)s on T2 and makes a T3 (Thopter Foundry). I groan, but I turn that frown upside-down when I immediately rip (Stun Sniper) as an answer for the thopter menace to come.

He drops a Plains for Espertron plus the (Rupture Spire), and passes suspiciously with five cards. I draw into my audible, (Darklit Gargoyle). What’s the plan until my next upkeep?

I am pretty much never risking the (Stun Sniper) with an attack. Her crossbow is trained on the (Thopter Foundry), ready to pick off anything that comes out of it. I play the (Darklit Gargoyle) and pass. If nothing shows up for the (Stun Sniper) to ping, I’ll cycle for the Swamp.

He landcycles himself, draws, and again passes the turn. I’m confused, but I fetch my Swamp as planned. I draw a Plains and consider the turn:

I think of (Bloodpyre Elemental) as a sorcery, not a creature—I don't think I've ever played it without immediately sacrificing it. I’m not sure what Villain is up to, but I’m content to push the board I have and make him change it. I swing with the gargoyle and pump it, leaving sniper and (Dark Temper) mana at the ready. He has no response to anything, and untaps for his turn.

He casts a must-kill creature. What is your weapon of choice?

I can take (Sedraxis Specter) down with (Dark Temper) right now, but the (Slave of Bolas) play is pretty sick. It means an unpumped gargoyle, and he’ll probably ditch a land based on his actions so far, but I can’t resist the play. Beyond being a 2:1, it also has tilt factor going for it. Some players simply make more mistakes after a crotch-kicker like taking 3 damage and ditching a card from your own (Sedraxis Specter) before seeing it sacrificed.

I also have protection against an unearthed (Sedraxis Specter) in the (Stun Sniper), and (Slave of Bolas) on his flyer plays around both (Soul Manipulation) and (Ethersworn Shieldmage). I stay the course despite drawing yet another removal option in (Jund Sojourners). He discards a Plains, and starts his turn.

He casts (Blightning). What’s the discard?

After the obvious Plains, it’s tougher. Am I going to hard cast either creature? If I hard cast (Jund Sojourners), (Dark Temper) becomes a (Terminate), but that would occupy black mana, which seems like it should be used on the gargoyle until he answers it. I ditch the (Jund Sojourners).

I pull (Filigree Fracture) off the top and send the gargoyle in for 3 more, still refusing to send the (Stun Sniper) into the red zone. Is it time to use the (Bloodpyre Elemental) as a creature for once?

Villain is clearly flooded, but I like continuing to play around (Soul Manipulation), especially with two nice instants and the sniper at the ready for his turn. He untaps and puts me to the test with a (Parasitic Strix). Should I respond?

(Thopter Foundry) is much less of a threat with my (Stun Sniper), but if he finds removal, the foundry could take over the game. If I hit the foundry with (Filigree Fracture) here, he will sacrifice the foundry to itself in response and I won’t draw a card. That’s unfortunate, but I won’t draw off the fracture regardless of my target as long as he has a mana up to sacrifice in response, so it doesn’t factor into the decision.

Denying him the bonus (Syphon Life) by removing his only black permanent creates maximum pressure and is the play here, with the follow-up ping of the token he makes in response. I plan on (Dark Temper)ing away the strix on my turn, but I draw into (Molten Frame) for an alternative answer. I choose the (Dark Temper) in case he casts a big artifact creature, but the (Bloodpyre Elemental) makes the decision nearly moot.

Is it time to attack with the (Stun Sniper)?

If the sniper attacks in two of the next three turns, it will increase the clock by a turn, and she no longer has the foundry to defend against. I would be dropping my guard against the unearthed (Sedraxis Specter), though, and I don't want to discard either of these cards. I keep the (Stun Sniper) back.

Villain finally reveals the (Soul Manipulation), giving up on the 2:1 dream to secure a creature in the (Sedraxis Specter). He then topdecks a (Grixis Charm) and takes out the (Stun Sniper) with it, setting up to trade his specter for the gargoyle. He doesn’t have a second red source, though, so the specter will have to wait a turn.

(Darklit Gargoyle) hits for 3 more, and Villain untaps with five life and little hope. He casts his (Sedraxis Specter), and also the (Esper Stormblade) he drew into. I put the (Molten Frame) to work taking out the stormblade and untap, ready to put him in check with the (Bloodpyre Elemental) targeting the specter. Instead, I rip checkmate in (Colossal Might).

7/3 trample for exactly 5. I’ve said before that (Colossal Might), when played carefully, acts a lot like a (Breath of Malfegor) plus a (Terminate) for (mana=R)(mana=G). Case in point. Pump is solid; pump plus trample is sick.

In response to the (Colossal Might), Villain disconnects. Classy! He logs back in five minutes later to see if I’ve abandoned my post, and concedes when he verifies I’m still around. Look, losing can be frustrating, but don’t be that guy, OK? It’s pathetic.

Naya has worked out well for me so far, but its potential vulnerability to flying is quite apparent. Be sure to look for answers to air raids if you find yourself drafting the green white red. Thanks for reading, and join me next week when I head back into the 84 Alara queues while waiting for M10 to hit Magic Online.