Waiting for Godot: ACR #4 – Swiss – Rd 2

R2G1

I lose another roll and check another seven:

Action T2 through T5, leading up to my draft-around card. Looks good despite some flood potential.

I do flood a little, and Villain starts strong with T2 (Viashino Slaughtermaster), T3 (Putrid Leech), and T4 (Jund Sojourners). He misses his fourth land drop, but funds and plays one T5. Any block on his subsequent attack?

If he had a trick, he’d swing with the (Viashino Slaughtermaster) too, so it appears to be a legitimate offer to trade. I accept, blocking the sojourners with the (Drumhunter). I need some time to set up (Where Ancients Tread), and the leech is taking 4-point chunks out of me. The (Drumhunter) needs to take one for the team, here.

It buys me enough time to get ancients out and take down his leech with a (Naya Soujourners). He follows with (Ajani Vengeant), but I rip (Sigiled Paladin) to take out blocker between my creatures and the planeswalker.

Ajani takes 5 and Villain takes 3. He makes a (Paleoloth) on his turn, but I hit another five-power creature on the draw and clear the path for the win.

R2G2

On the draw again:

Another typical draw for this deck: vulnerable to a rush in the early turns, but solid plays later. It’s a keeper despite the vulnerabilities—I’ll just have to try and make it to turn five with a double-digit life total.

I draw into (Matca Rioters) for turn three and a (Drumhunter) for turn four, a nice bridge to my big turns five and after. This is helped by Villain’s failure to hit his fourth land drop or play a spell through four turns. On his T5 he finds a Forest for a (Trace of Abundance) and makes a (Rip-Clan Crasher) with it. That’s not going to be nearly enough to stop the (Drumhunter)-fueled beatdown that is about to begin.

I draw a (Path to Exile), hit for 3, drop a (Rakeclaw Gargantuan) and draw (Enlisted Wurm) off the (Drumhunter). He is going to have to have a pretty spectacular set of plays to defeat me at this point. He finds a pretty solid one in (Ajani Vengeant), but uses his +1 to tap down my Matca Rioters:

I don’t know what he has in his hand, but that feels incorrect. I’m happy he doesn’t treat Ajani as an expensive (Lightning Helix) to take out the (Rakeclaw Gargantuan). I draw a Forest, and while I’m feeling about 95% to win from here, what is the 97% play, and what’s the 94% play? Optimizing with a huge advantage is something many players get lazy about, but not the players that consistently win pro tours.

If I had two white sources, I would play (Path to Exile) and a second (Rakeclaw Gargantuan). Without that, my choices boil down to (Fiery Fall) the (Rip-Clan Crasher), attack Ajani, or (Enlisted Wurm), let him chump the gargantuan if I don’t cascade into removal, and give him another turn with the planeswalker.

So, what can I realistically lose to at this point? A (Martial Coup) for an X of 5 with Ajani hiding behind the subsequent tokens would be pretty brutal. Unlikely, but if that's what might keep me from winning, I should play around that and make sure Ajani goes down right now. I burn out his blocker with (Fiery Fall), send (Ajani Vengeant) to the bin, and draw a Mountain off the (Drumhunter).

He untaps, shackles my (Drumhunter) with (Yoke of the Damned) and takes out the gargantuan with (Maelstrom Pulse), making me 1) jealous, and 2) glad I didn't have the Plains to do the Path/second rakeclaw play. Now I’m looking to go on the offensive. I can play (Sigiled Behemoth) or take my chances with (Enlisted Wurm). Given the possible cascade flips and board below, what’s the play?

With him about to fall to 11, the correct play is the (Enlisted Wurm). I might flip the (Magma Spray), but the other ten possibilities all increase my clock by a turn, and if I do flip the spray, my clock is the same as it would be with the (Sigil Behemoth). My autopilot is now in a “don’t cascade if removal is a blank” mentality, though, and I play the behemoth. Not putting yourself in a position to blank on removal is a good rule of thumb, but in this case it’s not correct, and I give him an extra turn to draw the theoretical (Martial Coup).

Good players establish rules of thumb to make decisions faster and easier, but the best players consistently recognize when it is correct to break those rules.

He dumps his entire hand of a (Cylian Elf), (Jund Hackblade), and (Mage Slayer) on his next turn, but it isn’t nearly enough.