Waiting for Godot: First Impressions of Zendikar

Zendikar isn’t online yet, so perhaps an article on Zendikar limited isn’t truly “Pure MTGO,” however, using the lead time between a set’s paper release and its online release to assess the upcoming limited environment is most definitely part of being a good online player. By learning from the paper world now, you’ll be much better positioned to succeed when Zendikar arrives online.

I actually made it to the Zendikar prerelease this weekend, something that's far from a given for me—in fact the last paper prerelease I attended was for Eventide. I love fall-set prereleases, though, as they are the only prerelease (in a typical year) where everything you are playing with is new. I went in only partially spoiled, which is how I like it when I have the discipline to avoid the full spoilers—I want a good idea of what the set is about heading into the prerelease, but it’s fun to read a card for the first time looking at it in your hand instead of on a screen.

One of the things that made this prerelease special—and one of the things that made it possible for me to go at all—was that I took my almost-seven-year-old son Oliver with me to his first Magic event of any kind. I’m raising my children as gamers, and we play everything from Settlers of Catan to Rock Band together, so it has always seemed inevitable that Magic would eventually be part of the canon. Seven felt a little on the young side, but he showed the interest and willingness, and since my alternative was not going at all, I decided why not? I explained to him that the event was scheduled for four rounds, but that we could leave after any round, and that it would be entirely up to him. I certainly didn't want his first Magic experience to be, "Dad made me sit in a chair for four hours," so I was fully prepared for a one-and-done day.

I signed Oliver up for his own DCI number and bought him into the event, then promptly dropped him, what with him never having played a game before and being only a year or so into the whole “reading” thing. He was thrilled to have his own pool, though, and poured excitedly over each card, just like everyone else at the shop. I checked his packs for "priceless treasures," but also like everyone else at the shop, he came up empty on that front. I also told him to put aside any scary cards, and a small pile of mostly black cards appeared face-down to his left.

I did my best to build my own deck while answering Oliver's many questions, and ended up with a solid greed-blue deck with the fixing to splash some removal from any of the other three colors, be it my two Disfigures, two Pitfall Traps, or singleton Burst Lightning. I didn't take any notes so I'm not even going to attempt a walkthrough of the matches themselves, but Oliver was having a great time, and when he heard that I might win packs if I played all four rounds, and that I would share them with him if I did, he happily stayed for all four rounds. What a trooper!

I went 3-1 (I always go 3-1 at prereleases), finishing third out of about 20 at the shop. I lost in the third round to the eventual second-place player, who lost in the finals to the first-place player. The first- and second-place players were both poker/Magic buddies of mine, so it was cool that my playgroup swept the medals on the day.

Everyone was friendly and having a good time, and Ollie was made to feel very welcome, which no doubt contributed to his willingness to stay for the duration. (One MTG: Pants pet peeve, though: when I pick up a card to read it, and my opponent summarizes the rules text for me while I’m trying to read the card, causing both methods of rules absorption to fail miserably. If your opponent picks up your card to read it, just let them read it. You are trying to be helpful, but you are having the opposite effect.)

Yes yes, Godot, but what about the cards?!

Sorry, right, the cards. Let me disclaim the rest of this article a bit: I've played ten total games in the format, and probably still haven't read each and every card yet. As much as you can use past cards as a barometer for some new cards (Journey to Nowhere is going to be similar in power to (Oblivion Ring): it doesn't deal with non-creatures, but costs a mana less), to understand the power level of many cards in a new set, there is simply no substitution for playing them. I have some solid opinions on cards I played with or against, but a lot of it is my sense of things based on a ton of past experience informing a small amount of present experience.

Rather than going through colors, I'm going to be a little more archetypical, taking a look at Zendikar's common and uncommon allies, and its common and uncommon landfall cards.

Allies

Slivers are back! Kinda.

Of the eight common allies (green, white, and red each have two common allies, black and blue each have one), Umara Raptor is the only one that I’m happy to play without another ally in my deck. A 2/2 flyer for (mana=2)(mana=u) is super solid and has been welcome in any base-blue limited deck I’ve ever had. The Nimana Sell-Sword and the Oran-Rief Survivalist are a Hill Giant and Grizzly Bears without allied company: serviceable, but far from exciting.

The question is, then, how many do you need in your deck for these to be reliably good, and more than just underwhelming vanilla men?

At this point, I'm thinking it will take seven or eight quality allies in your deck to make the "+1" allies consistently great. For example, if you can play Oran-Rief Survivalist on turn two and Umara Raptor on turn three, that’s solid—you are attacking with a 3/3 on turn three, and you’ve made a (Wind Drake) to boot. Or, in a blue-black deck, if you’ve gone turn-three Umara Raptor, turn four Nimana Sell-Sword, you’ve made as efficient a flyer for (mana=2)(mana=u) as has ever been printed without a drawback, and you have a Hill Giant to go with it.

To see that kind of early chain consistently, though, you will need those two allies in your first 10-12 cards, which comes out to around seven or eight allies in a 40-card deck. My plan for my early drafts as I refine my take on allies is to take Umara Raptor early since I'm happy to play it anyway, and to take Oran-Rief Survivalist and Nimana Sell-Sword more in the middle of pack one if they come to me, and look to make my way to that threshold of 7+ through the remaining packs. If I finish pack one with three or more allies, I will look for them aggressively as higher picks in packs two and three. If I have two, I will see how it goes but keep an eye out. If I only have the one, I will probably bail on the ally plan.

Some thoughts on other common and uncommon allies:

Hagra Diabolist: He seems expensive, but that's my reaction to pretty much every ally that doesn't give itself +1/+1 counters. As I read these allies, I have to keep reminding myself is that they fire again and again with each new ally that hits the table. At first blush, this guy looks like a bad (Singe-Mind Ogre), but the ability triggers with every ally played, not just himself. Three Hagra Diabolists and 10 other allies is going to be a pretty potent mix against an opponent without the removal to contain it.

Highland Berserker: Another underwhelming trigger on an underwhelming body, but the archetype will need its early drops, and later on, the real ability of this guy is, "When Highland Berserker enters the battlefield, trigger every ally you control. Oh yeah, and they get first strike."

Joraga Bard: Terrible in multiples, this is more allied weaksauce whose best feature appears to be increasing your ally count for the ones that cares about the number of allies you have in play. Add up enough allied weaksauce, though, and it starts to taste like awesomesauce.

Kazandu Blademaster: Now we're talking! The blademaster is another ally I wouldn't mind as the only one in my deck, but that means he will be taken by non-ally white drafters. The (mana=w)(mana=w) cost is annoying, particularly since I see allies as a Harrow-driven, three-color-minimum strategy, which likes spells that are easier on the color requirements.

Makindi Shieldmate: Not all the +1/+1 allies are going to be big winners. All of these underwhelming allies are still going to make it into many ally decks because of how important it is to have high a high ally density, but you would pretty much always trade this guy for an Oran-Rief Survivalist or an Umara Raptor in a multicolored ally deck.

Murasa Pyromancer: The counterpoint to Hagra Diabolist that looks like it could take over a game if its controller plays allies in front of and behind it. The high casting cost has me concerned about the ability to have any gas left in the ally tank when he finally hits without sandbagging allies in a way that leaves you vulnerable to early aggression. Still, if you can string together a couple allies in a row after he lands, you ought to win the game. It just concerns me that these expensive uncommon allies we're trying to ramp up to and take over with die to common, one-mana black and red removal spells.

Ondu Cleric: This might actually be the ally that keeps you alive long enough to make it to abusive-synergy enablers like Hagra Diabolist and Murasa Pyromancer. One life on turn two, two on turn three, three on turn four, etc., could be quite useful for the ally player looking to stabilize against aggro.

Seascape Aerialist: Clearly not splashable in non-ally decks, but that's great, it means the ally drafter should find them late. Could end games faster than Hagra Diabolist and Murasa Pyromancer if the opponent has no defense against flying.

Tajuru Archer: An unimpressive maindeck ally that will nonetheless crush souls against heavy flying decks, provided with enough allied support.

Tuktuk Grunts: How often can a 3/3 haste for five profitably attack the turn it comes into play? I'd put this guy in fourth place, ahead of the Makindi Shieldmate, in the ranking of the common +1/+1 ally cycle.

I have to say, I'm going into Zendikar drafting quite skeptical of the ally strategy, but open to being convinced. A lot of the one-shot ally effects are underwhelming and leave behind a marginal body, so it feels like you need a lot of allies in your deck before the mechanic gets abusive enough to match the power of the aggressive strategies apparent in the set (see: landfall).

I trust R&D, though, and I don't think they would have dedicated so many common and uncommon Zendikar cards slots to a heavily-linear strategy that wasn't viable in limited. There is probably an amazing four- or five-color "all-in allies" archetype to be drafted, but it seems like one of those archetypes where you really have to be the only one going after it or it will blow up in your face, because splitting up the good allies with another drafter seems like a disaster.

I think the first time I open an obviously bomby rare ally like Kazuul Warlord, Sea Gate Loremaster, or Turntimber Ranger, I will force allies and see how it goes.

Landfall

19 commons and uncommons in Zendikar have a landfall ability, triggering when a land enters the battlefield under your control. That's a pretty sizeable chunk of cards going by in drafts that want you dumping lands into play. It has been all the rage this past week to come up with dream scenarios for Lotus Cobra abuse, but you don't need mythic rares to get silly with landfall. Following are some all-common, two-color landfall sequences to help illustrate the potential power of the mechanic in limited Zendikar:

Turn One: Plains, Steppe Lynx

Turn Two: Forest, Khalni Heart Expedition, swing for 2.

Turn Three: Forest, (Lynx is 2/3), Harrow for two land lynx is 6/7), play and equip Adventuring Gear, crack the Khalni Heart Expedition, swing with a 14/15. Oh, and go ahead and have six land in play, too.

16 damage by turn three isn't too shabby for a four-spell, three-land opener containing nothing but commons. Throw in a fetch land for your second- or third-turn land drop to crank it to 18. What about red-green?

Turn One: Mountain, Adventuring Gear

Turn Two: Forest, Plated Geopede

Turn Three: Equip gear, play land, swing for 5/5 first strike, play Khalni Heart Expedition.

Turn Four: Play Teetering Peaks (geopede is 7/5 first strike), Harrow (geopede is 15/13), crack Khalni Heart Expedition (geopede is 23/25), and, I don't know, let's go ahead and play a Goblin Shortcutter with our remaining two mana to thwart that pesky blocker, or maybe give it +4/+4 and shroud with Vines of Vastwood in the face of an untapped Plains and a potential Pitfall Trap, then swing for 27.

Turn-four kill? Turn-four overkill.

Those are two pretty mind-blowing scenarios, and when you consider the components are all common and use only two colors, it's safe to say that landfall sequences along these lines will come to pass in triple Zendikar drafts with some regularity, as players will be able to draft multiple copies of the enablers.

While I didn't pull off anything quite as spectacular as those sequences on Saturday, I did have a solid sequence of:

Turn One: land

Turn Two: land, Welkin Tern (2-power flyers for 2, especially one colorless, are always going to be good)

Turn Three, land, Grazing Gladehart, swing for 2

Turn Four: land, gain 2, Windrider Eel, swing for 2 (ground blocker preventing profitable attack with gladehart)

Turn Five: Land, gain 2, (4/4 eel), Harrow, swing for 10, gain 4, second main cast Khalni Gem to set up more landfall, with Disfigure and Into the Roil at the ready to cast off of the gem to protect my impending turn-six win.

Note the one card repeated in all three powerful landfall scenarios doesn't have landfall written on it: Harrow. Sometimes Wizards reprints a card in a set because they have a hole to fill. The new keyword ability has already been applied to the set's (Giant Growth), and reprinting the elegant (Naturalize) simply makes more sense than making an overcomplicated Naturalize variant instead.

Other times, a reprint just feels so at home in its comeback set, it feels like it was designed specifically for it. (Terminate) making a comeback in the all-gold Alara Reborn, for example. Or, Harrow reappearing in the landfall-laden world of Zendikar. Harrow is so perfect for Zendikar, it actually feels out of place in Invasion to me now, as though it had been waiting nine years for its real home to see print.

Back in Invasion block draft, where the fixing was pretty terrible by modern standards for a multicolored block, Harrow was a justifiable first pick for someone looking to make a base-green four- or five-color good-stuff deck. Fast forward to Zendikar, and Harrow will again be a justifiable first pick and an easy 2nd – 4th pick for any base-green landfall deck. It has so much going for it:

• It fixes not one but two colors
• It accelerates
• It triggers landfall twice, frequently for the third time in the turn
• It's synergistic with Grim Discovery and chains into abusive, quintuple-landfall Khalni Heart Expedition shenanigans like those described above
• It effectively costs one mana provided you have three mana sources in play
• It thins your deck of two land (although that may qualify as neutral or a drawback in Zendikar)
• It's an instant, turning it into a legitimate combat trick

That's quite a list. I love landfall, I love Harrow, and I expect it to be one of my most-drafted cards in the set. Here are some quick hits on other common and uncommon landfall cards:

Windrider Eel: I expect this to be the defining blue common of the format, with red and black mages saving their Disfigures and Burst Lightnings for this flying fish when their opponent leads with an Island. Welkin Tern into Umara Raptor into Windrider Eel is going to cause some headaches for opponents without reach or flying.

Adventuring Gear and Explorer's Scope: There's only so much room for equipment in a deck once you have a solid creature count and some tricks, removal, and card-drawing spells, but I like these cards. Both pass my first test for equipment, which is that its ability raise power, enable direct damage, grant evasion, or produce card advantage ((Sword of Fire and Ice) is probably my all-time favorite equipment, as it does all of the above, if protection can be considered a form of evasion).

The casting and equip costs are another plus for this pair. Relevant one-drops are hard to come by in limited, and both of these seem like solid first-turn plays for any deck, and they become excellent in a landfall deck. When you are ready to equip, the one-mana cost means you won't suffer a tempo blowout if your opponent has removal in response. They also help maximize your mana each turn by providing a use for spares you have lying around.

Another way to assess Adventuring Gear—and equipment in general—is to consider what you pay to have the equipment's ability built into a creature. For example, take away (Windrider Eel)'s landfall ability, and you get a (Wind Drake), so the +2/+2 landfall ability adds a cost of 1 to the eel. 1/1 first strikers in red are one mana, so the +2/+2 landfall ability again adds a cost of 1 to Plated Geopede. Other +2/+2 landfall creatures follow this trend of adding about one mana to the cost of the creature, and Adventuring Gear costs the same to add the ability to a creature, so it's a fair equip cost. The casting cost and the fact that it takes up a card slot generally balance out the fact that it is reusable, and can grant an ability to creatures weren't specifically intended to have it.

There's not such an easy comparison source for Explorer's Scope, but it seems pretty incredible in aggressive decks where you are reliably attacking. Accelerating, triggering landfall, and gaining card advantage on 45% of your turns is strong. On the other hand, it's a waste of space if you are on defense, but the upside on it is sky high for the right deck.

Surrakar Marauder: Tnonhis guy reminds me of (Nezumi Cutthroat), and that rat was absolutely fearsome on turn two in Kamigawa block if you didn't have any Swamps in your deck. The marauder exchanges persistent fear for high-percentage fear and the ability to block. That's a great trade, and I expect Surrakar Marauder to intimidate (see what I did there?) non-black Zendikar drafters just as (Nezumi Cutthroat) intimidated non-black Kamigawa drafters.

Steppe Lynx: Despite it being part of one of the sick sequences above, I don't like it except as a late pick in a green-white heavy-landfall deck. The better +2/+2 landfall creatures are the ones that have relevance beyond "speed bump" when you don't have a means to trigger them, such as the eel and the super solid Territorial Baloth. Plated Geopede is better, at least being a 1/1 first striker when not being abused by green landfall enablers.

Khalni Heart Expedition: Speaking of green landfall enablers, the green expedition can clearly get abusive with Harrow, but it's not nearly as good on its own, or as a topdeck with landfall permanents in play. I'm heading into Zendikar limited a little concerned about the deadness of expedition and quest cards in the late game, but I'm ready to test to see if the tradeoff for the early-game power is worth it.

Sunspring Expedition: Even 8 life isn't enough when it does nothing else and costs a card. Could be useful as sideboard material against burn decks in Pauper, though.

Ior Ruin Expedition: I like it a lot—a half-priced (Courier's Capsule), a 50% off (Divination), again for the tradeoff of being a less-than-stellar topdeck. The good news for topdeck mode is, you've either drawn a spell, or you are one land closer to completing your expedition.

Zektar Shrine Expedition: Common (Ball Lightning)s for (mana=1)(mana=r) and playing out some land seem like they could have a home in green-red landfall. One of the games I lost on Saturday was to this card, although it had more to do with the almost-unfair Vines of Vastwood turning it into an 11/4 with shroud in response to my kicked Into the Roil.

Soul Stair Expedition: Broken expedition record: an amazing bargain in exchange for being a terrible topdeck. The quests in general may prove to be the swingiest aspect of the format, providing game-swinging discounts for mages fortunate enough to draw them early, and frustrating blanks for those who turn them up while digging for answers.

Turntimber Basilisk: Clumsy green removal or a fragile blocker. Reasonably costed at 3, but the double green is somewhat prohibitive. I like it wearing Adventuring Gear…

Baloth Woodcrasher: Where Territorial Baloth pays 1 to get +2/+2 landfall, the woodcrasher doubles up both the payment and the effect. I don't know if it's that much better than the Territorial Baloth, though, since both hit hard with a landfall trigger when there aren't blockers, and both will prompt chumping when there are.

Geyser Glider: The glider is like a (Skyclaw Thrash) without the gamble, since you know before you attack whether or not you have liftoff. It's quite strong for an aggressive color like red to have a part-time dragon like Geyser Glider at uncommon.

Hedron Crab: Now this is an interesting little crustacean. In a past article, I compared running a singleton (Mind Funeral) to running the queen of spades, but the Hedron Crab is clearly better than that. For starters, it's a body, and it's a third of the cost. Further, where Mind Funeral could be expected to mill for about 10—not nearly enough to win a typical limited game via decking—a Hedron Crab dropped in the first few turns with 6 or 7 subsequent landfall triggers is going to mill twice the cards that Mind Funeral would. I'm still not willing to say a singleton Hedron Crab is a good play, but multiple-crab decks could certainly be viable when drafted and built correctly.

Grazing Gladehart: I wasn't sure what to make of this guy, but he made the cut in my prerelease deck, and performed quite serviceably. In the game I recapped above, though, you can see the problem with life gain on an otherwise sub-par effect or permanent: if the life gain doesn't actually affect the outcome of the game, you've simply played a sub-par effect or permanent. That being said, I will definitely play it again. He generates a large amount of life hitting the table early, he can trade with a lot of relevant creatures, and decks trying to race you will either lose that race or have to spend removal on a (Gray Ogre).

Hagra Crocodile: The croc is a bit on the expensive side in the relative cost for the +2/+2 landfall ability, as a 3/1 that can't block in black should really cost about 2.5 mana. Blocking is underrated, so I don't like this guy very much.

Shoal Serpent: This may be my favorite (Sea Serpent) variant yet, but that's not saying much. Landfall decks should be playing green creatures that outclass this, and non-landfall decks shouldn't be excited about six-mana landfall cards that don't have bomby landfall effects.

I hoped to hit more cards before wrapping up, but once again I find my word count growing and my time shrinking. I'll break down more Zendikar cards and archetypes next week, and leave you today with an ending (beginning?) to Oliver's Magic story.

After having fun at the prerelease, Oliver naturally wanted to learn how to play, and big sister Clara decided to try as well. I described the philosophies of each color to them, and asked each of them to pick two colors they wanted to try. In a result that would surprise nobody who knows both Magic and my children, Clara ended up in green-red, and Oliver in blue-white. I whipped together two fairly straightforward decks from tenth edition cards I had around, and dove in by refereeing a face-up tutorial game.

It went fine for about twenty minutes, until Clara decided she was bored and moved on. I took over her game, continuing to explain the game to a fully-engaged Oliver. He eventually stabilized and began to take over with card drawing, although he crumbled to the ground on the verge of tears when I resolved a (Shivan Dragon). When I pointed out his (Pacifism) in hand, his frown turned upside-down, and he marched on to victory. He was positively beaming, and spent the rest of the day talking about his intentions to make all sorts of decks, and to start playing me with the hands hidden.

When I came home from work on Monday, my wife told me to look at the homework page Oliver had completed that night:

Come on, how awesome is that? He pointed out to me that some of the cards are tapped, and some are untapped. Following the "play what scares you" approach to Magic deckbuilding, he has decided his next deck is going to be "All red, with that dragon, all the good red cards from Clara's deck, plus, you know, anything else." Coming right up, son, coming right up…

I'll see you all next week!

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Waiting for Godot – M10 #3 – Part 2

Last week, we left of with the mulligan decision for round two, game one. I had

 

In any case, here are the screen shots I had for my round-two opponent:

 

With that information, consider this opening seven on the play.

R2G1

If this were R1G1, I mulligan this hand. It is prone to flooding, and while removal is nice, the hand has no pressure whatsoever. The (Pyroclasm) could be a rock star or a dud depending on Villain's deck, but against an unknown opponent, I wouldn’t want to risk it.

In this case, though, I have information about what I'm up against. Villain is running a (mana=w)(mana=u) flyers deck, and of the 11 creatures I’ve seen in it, a full ten die to (Pyroclasm). As long as I draw reasonably and don’t get too greedy with (Pyroclasm) (or, as an anonymous poster put it in last week’s comments, let a good card make me play badly), this is a starter that will wreck this particular opponent. I keep, and see about the “draw reasonably” condition for making this an excellent starter.

I cross my fingers that I’ll see a turn-one (Zephyr Sprite) across the table, but the first play of the game is Villain’s turn-two (Coral Merfolk). I draw a (Prodigal Pyromancer) and a (Canyon Minotaur) and debate my options on turn three:

R2G1 #1

I played out the Forest instinctively, but the Mountain would have been a better play. I don’t want to summon the (Prodigal Pyromancer) here because I intend to (Pyroclasm) in the next few turns. The (Canyon Minotaur) is a perfect turn-four play: a ‘clasm-proof body that will throw any suspicion that I’m holding back creatures before a mass removal spell. The only thing I might do on turn three, then, is hit a three-toughness creature with (Seismic Strike). Accordingly, I should have played out the Mountain. The only thing a Forest gets me is the ability to play (Master of the Wild Hunt) off the top, which I might not do if I drew him anyway.

Wow, so I just surprised myself. When I do a replay and capture a screen at a decision point and paste it into my editor, I frequently remember exactly what I did, so I will write the post-decision commentary before advancing the replay any further. I thought that was the case when I wrote the preceding paragraph, but when I went back to advance the replay to the next decision point, I witnessed my former self tapping out for (Prodigal Pyromancer). Sitting here now, I really dislike that play. The arguments for it are to draw out a possible (Harm's Way), or to just be aggro here with the upcoming (Canyon Minotaur), preventing Villain from even casting one-toughness creatures by threat of the pyromancer.

If I’m 100% sure I'm up against (Harm's Way) then this play is fine, as I’d rather lose my pyromancer than have Villain save a creature and kill my minotaur after a (Pyroclasm). Assuming there is only one (Harm's Way) in Villain's deck, there’s a 25% chance I'm facing it by next turn; not enough to warrant the pyro play, here. I’ll say this for the play: it certainly disguises my (Pyroclasm) and demands an answer!

Villain untaps, plays a land, attacks for 2, casts a second (Coral Merfolk) and passes. I untap and draw—of course—(Master of the Wild Hunt). So everyone knows what’s going on here, right? Given what you ought to know about this situation, what’s the play for the turn?

R2G1 #2

Obviously, Villain does indeed have (Harm's Way), there is no other reason for playing another creature that will die to (Prodigal Pyromancer). That’s fine, though, it’s actually the result I wanted—I’m happy to trade my pinger for his powerful trick. I ping one of his merfolk, and in a move that shouldn’t surprise anyone, he redirects the damage back onto the (Prodigal Pyromancer) with (Harm’s Way). If you didn’t see the (Harm’s Way) coming there, you need to work on reading telegraphs. When an otherwise-competent opponent does something only a bad player would do, most of the time they have a good reason, and you should be able to figure out that reason based on the mana left up and the board state.

From the replays, the only thing Villain has to deal with the (Master of the Wild Hunt) is a creatively-used (Harm’s Way) and (Essence Scatter). His wolf buddies will die to Pyroclasm, but I want to get my bomb down while he’s tapped out, so, as it turns out, I do rip the one card enabled by playing the turn-three Forest, and cast it. Villain has an answer I didn’t see in the replays: (Ice Cage). (Master of the Wild Hunt) can no longer sick wolves on anything, but he can still call them to his side. Villain hits me for 4 before casting a (Stormfront Pegasus), and I have an interesting spot when I untap, make a wolf, and draw a Mountain:

R2G1 #3

I could hit (Master of the Wild Hunt) with a non-lethal (Seismic Strike) to crack his cage if I do it before playing a Mountain, or I can just play out a Mountain and the (Canyon Minotaur) and accept that I have a wolf token maker. I think pumping out wolf tokens each turn is plenty good, and go with the minotaur plan, reserving my (Seismic Strike) for an opposing creature. The pegasus drops me to 12 while the minotaur holds off the merfolk, and Villain taps out to cast a (Razorfoot Griffin). I draw my other (Canyon Minotaur) after calling in another wolf token, and plan the turn.

R2G1 #3

I thank the wolves for their service and apologize before (Pyroclasm)-ing for the 4:1, swing for 3, and play the other minotaur, turning the game around in an instant. Well, sorcery.

Villain has a solid response with a (Wall of Frost), which I swing into with my minotaurs. The wall blocks one of them, and with three damage on the it, I can finish it off with the (Seismic Strike), but I pass the turn. I believe my thinking was that the wall was annoying, but wasn’t going to be able to help against the flood of wolves, and that I should therefore save the burn spell for something that could actually stop me from attacking. That is a bit of overly-conservative, fancy-play syndrome. Getting that wall out of the way is almost certainly going to end this game faster than saving the removal for some unseen threat that he might have coming. I regretted the choice as soon as I made it.

Villain casts (Divination), then makes a (White Knight). Was my decision correct in hindsight? Is the (White Knight) a better target than the wall? I decide not, declining to burn out the knight before untapping for my turn. I topdeck (Capricious Efreet) to combo with my wolf factory. There’s no benefit to attacking this turn, so I just play the efreet and pass.

R2G1 #4

Villain adds a (Wind Drake) to the battlefield and passes. (Capricious Efreet) is a powerful card that can be pretty straightforward, but any card that targets three non-land permanents each turn will present some interesting choices, too. What are your three targets for efreet this turn?

R2G1 #5

The safe choices are the (Wall of Frost), a wolf token and the (White Knight) or the (Ice Cage). An interesting choice is the (Master of the Wild Hunt) himself instead of a wolf token. Targeting the huntmaster guarantees the (Ice Cage) would drop off, but then there would be a 1-in-3 chance of losing the huntmaster in the process. This is a good move to have in the arsenal for a desperate situation where I need to take out two creatures with the play or lose, but it’s an unnecessary risk here.

(Ice Cage) vs. (White Knight) is more interesting. If I can make the (Ice Cage) fall off, I can use the huntmaster to take out the (White Knight) anyway, but at the cost of a wolf token. I decide to target the knight and the wall to keep maximum wolves going, but in the rear view there is little downside to targeting the cage. Freeing the huntmaster is going to win me this game faster than letting him stay frozen while pumping out wolves and targeting his creatures with the efreet. Knight or cage, the end result is still going to be a dead creature either way, so I may as well free up the (Master of the Wild Hunt) in the process.

It doesn’t look like the decision is going to matter to the game. Villain is either going to need a (Planar Cleansing) and a Plains or a (Mind Control) and some luck to get out of this with a win. Luck is on Villain’s side initially, as I lose my wolf token to the efreet (and in case you are wondering, I had to choose targets before the abilities went on the stack, so I couldn’t choose the wolf with summoning sickness). I rip (Sparkmage Apprentice) and plan the turn.

R2G1 #6

One thing I’m asking myself at this point is: what are Villain’s likely holdings? A land bluff is a strong possibility. A creature seems unlikely, as a 4-or-more casting cost creature would have been played instead of the (Wind Drake), and a 3-or-less casting cost creature would have been played along side the (Wind Drake). (Essence Scatter) and (Sleep) are cards seen from the first round, but the biggest concern is (Safe Passage), which could be a real blowout.

I decide to play as though Villain does not have (Safe Passage), because even if he does, I’ll still be in fine shape. I could play the (Sparkmage Apprentice) precombat to have the huntmaster online for combat, but then my trick is on the table and avoidable. I feel like if I swing with everything, Villain is going to have to stack block the (Capricious Efreet) and try to take it out, which makes (Seismic Strike) into a 2:1. I attack with both 3/3s and the efreet, but Villain only chooses to block a minotaur with the wall. Now what’s the play in the second main?

R2G1 #7

I think the clear play is to cast (Sparkmage Apprentice), unlock the (Master of the Wild Hunt) and take out the wall with a wolf attack. Then I have the (Seismic Strike) for Villain’s turn. I haven’t advanced the replay yet, but I don’t think that’s what I did, because I remember groaning about not doing it during the game. Let’s see…

Yep, I broke the cage with the apprentice, but passed the turn without killing the wall with the strike or the hunter. I don’t know why I’m so insistent on letting that wall live. I also don’t know why I misplayed these past few turns so badly. Not focused? Playing too quickly? Lazy with a commanding board advantage? Probably that last one…with my sick bomb combo going, I was playing the game like victory was a foregone conclusion, and making lazy mistakes as a result. Yes, I am almost certain to win, here, but that’s no reason to get sloppy.

Villain draws and concedes, so my lazy play only costs me some face in this column. I bring in (Mold Adder) from the board and head in for game two.

R2G2

On the draw, I decide on my seven:

An easy keep. I luck out on the turn-one (Mold Adder), and I’m not sure I should have brought it in. I also think I should have sided out the (Regenerate), which certainly has it’s uses against white and blue, but is really at its best against red and black, where it can be a combat trick and counter a lot of removal. My first draw is (Pyroclasm), and I’m liking my chances. My first decision point is on turn three after Villain casts a (Wind Drake).

R2G2 #1

My big question is, do I attack with the (Mold Adder)? I don’t think I can. If I were playing the other side of the table, I would certainly trade my 2/2 flyer for the (Mold Adder). I’d rather hold back on the attack, cast the (pyroclasm)-proof (Centaur Courser) and pass, setting up for a devastating clasm after Mold Adder gets one more counter.

Villain casts (Divination), swings for 2, and passes with a Plains up. I draw (Master of the Wild Hunt), but don’t have the second Forest for it yet. If he had left the (Wind Drake) back on defense I would think it was (Harm’s Way) waiting, but that’s not a good play, here, so I swing in for 6. I cast the (Fiery Hellhound) even though it dies to the (Pyroclasm), because like in R1G1 from last week, I can just play aggressively with it until blowing the (Pyroclasm).

Villain casts an annoying (Siege Mastodon) and passes without an attack, presumably leaving the (Wind Drake) behind to trade with the (Fiery Hellhound). I draw and play a fourth Mountain, and plot the turn.

R1G2 #2

I don’t want to use the (Regenerate) to save the hellhound when blocked by the (Wind Drake) so the (Fiery Hellhound) is going to sit. I could send in the courser, hope he blocks with the mastodon, then regenerate the courser and (Pyroclasm). That would trade my (Pyroclasm) and (Fiery Hellhound) for his two creatures, but that’s not a fantastic trade and it telegraphs a trick. Besides, it only works if he blocks, which I wouldn’t in Villain’s shoes. I’d rather sit back, find another Mountain so the (Seismic Strike) can take out the mastodon by itself, and set up the killer ‘clasm. I pass the turn.

Villain bends me over with (Sleep), and swings for 5, dropping me to 13. I draw a (Lightning Bolt), and decide if I should do anything this turn:

R2G2 #3

Being defenseless for two full swings has me a little more nervous than I was when I declined to attack in an attempt to take out the mastodon, and this time, I can take out Villain’s team without blocking required. Also, without any white mana available, I can sneak it all in without fear of (Harm's Way) wrecking me. I opt to (Regenerate) the hellhound, (Pyroclasm), then (Lightning Bolt) the (Siege Mastodon). I don’t like giving my opponents 3:2s in their favor, but in this case, it nullifies half a (Sleep) and puts me in an advantageous board situation.

I leave myself with the only creatures on the board, and (Villain) rebuilds by tapping out for a (Phantom Warrior) and a second (Sleep). My deck obliges me with a second Forest, and I play (Master of the Wild Hunt) without fear of (Essence Scatter). Villain has a (Lifelink) for his (Phantom Warrior), which I’m always happy to see an opponent play. the lifelinked warrior swings the game to 15-11, and I draw into my other (Centaur Courser). If Villain has no tricks, then I have this game won on the board. Should I play around (Harm's Way) or (Divine Verdict) here?

R2G2 #4

This is one of those spots where I don’t think it matters much. I have a (Sesismic Strike) and another 3/3. If I swing in and lose the (Master of the Wild Hunt) or the (Mold Adder), well, so what? I should still win on the following attack, so I don’t think it matters. Play it safe and hold back the (Master of the Wild Hunt), or go for the win now, either way, this game is well in hand.

Villain agrees, conceding before I even attack, perhaps after doing some math and seeing that I had 15 on the table.

R3G1

Here is the partial decklist for my finals opponent based on scouting games. The mana base is a guess

Finals Opponent Partial Decklist

Known cards from scouting replays

Creatures 2 Soul Warden 2 Veteran Swordsmith 1 Bramble Creeper 1 Borderland Ranger 1 Razorfoot Griffin 1 Blinding mage 1 Rhox Pikemaster 1 Awakener Druid 1 Birds of Paradise 1 Giant Spider 1 Stormfront Pegasus 13 cards Other Spells 1 Holy Strength 1 Armored Ascension 1 Naturalize 1 Howl of the Night Pack 1 Glorious Charge 5 ??? 5 cards

Lands 9 Plains 8 Forest 17 cards

 

I lose the roll and decide on my seven after Villain keeps.

A good keeper against anyone, but an excellent keeper against an opponent with only three known creatures that, without help from an aura, can survive a double (Prodigal Pyromancer), and none that can survive a (Lightning Bolt) and a (Prodigal Pyromancer).

Villain goes (Soul Warden), (Blinding Mage), (Soul Warden), and I’m licking my chops despite being in a slight tempo hole when I start my action with a turn-three pyromancer. I untap, draw a Forest, and figure out optimal timing for my turn.

R3G1 #1

Playing out the second pyromancer is fairly obvious, but remembering to take out a (Soul Warden) with my active pyromancer is the kind of detail that can slip by with a “do things at the last minute” mentality. Speaking of when to do things, the other question for the turn is: do I hit the (Rhox Pikemaster) with the (Lightning Bolt), and if so, when?

Normally, I would just take out the pikemaster now, while Villain is tapped out and before I have to consider (Harm's Way) in the equation. In this case, though, I've seen 17 or 18 of Villain's spells (depending on whether (Naturalize) was main deck or sideboard), and none of them were (Harm's Way), but two of them were auras that pump toughness. I'm going to take out the (Rhox Pikemaster), but I'm going to wait until it's attacking me, giving Villain one extra main phase to play (Holy Strength) or (Armored Ascension) for the 2:1 bolt in response.

I don't get the 2:1 offer, and take out the pikemaster with a mid-combat bolt. Villain follows with a (Razorfoot Griffin), clearly trying to race me, or sandbagging an (Armored Ascension). I pull a (Seismic Assault) off the top. What's the plan for the turn?

R3G1 #2

Despite being down 28-12, I feel like the only way I'll lose this game to known cards at this point is if villain sticks pocket rockets ((Armored Ascension)) on something I can't burn, or resolves (Howl of the Night Pack) after drawing more Forests. With (Seismic Strike) and a fifth Mountain now in hand, though, even a third Plains and the pocket rockets wouldn't put any of his creatures out of burn range, so it's safe to make the more-aggressive play and cast the (Canyon Minotaur). I also take out the (Razorfoot Griffin) on my turn with the double ping since I'm not holding castable removal this time.

Villain untaps and plays (Elvish Visionary) and (Pacifism) on the (Canyon Minotaur), showing me two of the five unknown cards in his deck before dropping me to 10 on the attack. I untap and draw (Borderland Ranger). What should I do, and in what order?

R3G1 #3

The best opposing creature is the (Blinding Mage), but I can take out the most power by hitting the (Soul Warden) and the (Elvish Visionary). It's a fairly close call, and if one choice is truly better than the other, it's not a big difference, but I go for the power play, taking out the two 1/1s before dropping the (Borderland Ranger) and (Fiery Hellhound).

Villain adds a land and passes the turn, and I draw into (Regenerate). I double ping the (Blinding Mage), and my firebreather is turned sideways in response. Even a Forest and a (Howl of the Night Pack) isn't an out now, and short of a (Planar Cleansing) or a huge green creature, the game feels in the bag despite being behind 30-10 in the life column.

Villain finds a (Borderland Ranger) of his own, but I trump that draw with (Master of the Wild Hunt), and after taking out the ranger with the pingers, I swing for 7 and drop the huntmaster. Villain has no play, I draw (Lightning Bolt), hit for 11, and pass, earning a concession after the draw step.

R3G2

I pull the (Regenerate) for (Kindled Fury), another fairly narrow card that has some surprise value, but is a little better in combat than (Regenerate), which is where I'm likely to use it in the (mana=g)(mana=w) matchup. On the draw again, I check my seven:

Looks good. Despite containing some low-end and generic cards, even one (Prodigal Pyromancer) is a problem for this opponent. The game starts a lot like the last one: Villain curves out with (Llanowar Elves) (another unseen card), (Elvish Visionary), and (Veteran Swordsmith) while my first play is a turn-three pyromancer. I'm attacked down to 12 and staring at a wall of creatures before I even have my pyromancer online. How do I best reverse the tide, here?

R3G2 #1

The straight play is the (Canyon Minotaur), pass. The trickier angle is to set Villain up for a (Kindled Fury) ambush. If I just play the minotaur, it will likely end up tapped down by the (Blinding Mage), and I'll have to take another 4 damage after taking out one of the elves. If I hold back for the (Kindled Fury) play and Villain swings with everything, I'll take out an elf plus the (Blinding Mage) or the (Veteran Swordsmith), then I'll have my choice of five drops for turn five. Will the trick work, though? Can I really expect my opponent to walk into four untapped lands and six cards? What if Villain has a trick as well?

I decide setting up for the trick is too risky at this point, and is too much of a waste of mana, so I play the minotaur. It's too bad I don't have a (Centaur Courser), where I could play a 3/3 and set up for (Kindled Fury).

After untap but before the draw step, I ping the (Llanowar Elves). Villain plays a Mountain and casts (Stormfront Pegasus), immediately protecting it from the pyromancer with (Holy Strength). Despite the 20-12 life lead, Villain does not tap my blocker and swing, instead leaving me at 12 life and passing the turn. This is a huge amount of breathing room I've just received to try and play my way out of this. I pull a (Lightning Bolt) on my draw, and suddenly I'm swimming in options. What's your angle for the turn?

R3G2 #2

One option is to cast (Acidic Slime) targeting the (Holy Strength), then ping the (Stormfront Pegasus). This was almost the one I made, but then paranoia crept in. The Mountain concerned me; I'd seen no mountains in my scouting, suggesting that this sudden red was a sideboard switch in response to the two (Prodigal Pyromancer)s that took over game one. I decided saving the (Acidic Slime) to take out the splash land would pay dividends down the road, and so I set up the (Kindled Fury) trick by bolting the (Stormfront Pegasus) and passing.

I really dislike this play, now. I was being overly-paranoid about the Mountain. I had visions of Villain splashing for a (Fireball) or (Earthquake), but really, if those cards were available, they would likely have been in the deck all along, and I would have seen a Mountain in the scouting. More likely, the Mountain is for splashing that (Lightning Bolt) I passed, and if so, the bolt can be played in response to sliming the Mountain anyway if it happens to be in hand. If I simply take out the (Holy Strength) and ping the flyer, I'll have the bolt leftover for a (Bramble Keeper)/bolt the (Blinding Mage) on turn six.

Well, definitely the suboptimal play, but hopefully I can make the (Kindled Fury) trick work. The minotaur is tapped before combat, and I pass the turn. Villain plays a Forest and swings with everything. I'm going to make the pyromancer a 2/1 first striker and ping the (Elvish Visionary) after blockers, but which creature should the pyromancer block?

R3G2 #2

The (Blinding Mage) is the real problem, here. WIth the tapper out of the picture, I will probably end up trading the (Acidic Slime) for the (Veteran Swordsmith), which will then leave the (Bramble Creeper) open to swing for 5 each turn. The plan goes off without a hitch (except for the part where it shouldn't have been the plan to begin with). Villain has no other action and only the swordsmith in play as I untap for my turn. I pull more land and cast the slime, taking out he Mountain.

Villain rips and casts a second (Blinding Mage), much to my annoyance, and declines to attack, suggesting an unwillingness to trade the swordsmith with the slime now that another tapper it in the ranks. I find an interesting counter-rip on my turn in (Pyroclasm), and have more scheming ahead. What's the plan now? Any plays precombat? What creatures, if any, are attacking? What is the plan postcombat, and how do Villain's possible blocks affect it?

R3G2 #3

One option is to (Pyroclasm) before combat (pinging to the dome first), swing with the only survivor in the minotaur, and then cast the (Bramble Creeper), putting 8 points of attacking power on the table with Villain dropped to 13 and likely out of gas. If no precombat (Pyroclasm), then what about combat? Swing with both the minotaur and the slime? Just the slime? There are a lot of ways to go here. In hindsight, I am leaning towards just blowing up everything but the minotaur, casting the creeper and forcing Villain to answer in two turns or die.

In the actual game, I was reticent to give Villain another 3:2, including taking out the match MVP, (Prodigal Pyromancer). I decide to swing in with the minotaur and the slime and offer trades. This puts the (Canyon Minotaur) at unnecessary risk, since the minotaur is the only creature I have in play that survive (Pyroclasm) and has three power, I really don't want to lose him. Thankfully, Villain decides to trade with the slime, and postcombat I'm definitely playing the creeper, but am I trading the (Pyroclasm) and the (Prodigal Pyromancer) for the (Blinding Mage)?

I can still create my 8 points of attackers scenario, but I again find myself unable to give Villain the 2:1 and pass the turn after playing the creeper, hoping to catch more creatures in the (Pyroclasm) to come. Is this a good card causing me to play badly? Maybe, but I'd still rather try to learn to play it well instead of just avoiding drafting it. All told, I should have cut my pyromancer loose and accepted the wrong end of a 3:2 (precombat) or a 2:1 (postcombat) in the name of a much faster clock. I'll still get in a solid 4 a turn with an unchanged board, but for the math challenged following along at home: 8 > 4.

Villain has no play, and I rip a (Lightning Bolt) to look like a genius. I'm thinking the (Bramble Creeper) will be distracted by shiny objects this turn, but the (Blinding Mage) is destined to be struck by lighting before he'll have another chance to mess with my creeper. Villain makes the classic online oops, and clicks through the beginning of combat, and both the minotaur and the creeper charge in on the attack. Now what?

R3G2 #4

With the life totals standing at 9-5, the play is just to ping twice and bolt to the dome before my next draw step and win. With burn decks, it's easy to get caught up in board control and miss a win to the face. One time in Lorwyn-Morningtide drafting, a game had gone into this intense creature stalemate for many turns, and I was trying to draw something to break it. I pull a (Tarfire) and go into the tank, trying to figure out the right creature to remove to make a key hole in Villain's defense. After about 45 seconds of thought (an eternity in Magic Online wait time), I look at his life total and it's 2. I spend the next ten seconds composing a sincere apology for the inadvertent slow roll, and chat it as I cast (Tarfire) to the head for the win.

Life totals: kind of a big deal, it turns out.

Red is very underdrafted in M10, and its unpopular for good reason—red's best cards are splashable, and it is the shallowest in terms of good commons. If you find yourself the only heavy red drafter, though, it can really pay off.

Waiting for Godot: M10 #3 – The Games

R1G1

Checking my 7 on the play:

That’s looking like a starting hand for a monored deck, but a good one, so I keep, even though drawing (Acidic Slime) or (Master of the Wild Hunt) would be unfortunate.

Villain shows green/blue with an Island, a Forest, and a turn-two (Sage Owl). I pull (Sparkmage Apprentice) and (Pyroclasm), and my first real decision is what to do on turn three: the apprentice, the (Fiery Hellhound), or pass with (Seismic Strike) mana up:

R1G1 #1

I’m not concerned about the (Sage Owl), and don’t want to use the apprentice on it at this point. The hellhound dies to my eventual (Pyroclasm), so I could sit back on the removal mana and hope Villain commits more one- and two-toughness creatures to the board. I don’t want to telegraph my sweeper with suspicious inaction, though, and the hellhound is a creature I can send out there early to do some damage or make a nice trade before becoming expendable—a (Goblin Deathraiders) for heavy-red M10, if you will. I run out the firebreather with aggressive intentions. Hopefully, while I’m converting mana into damage without actually committing more creatures to the board, Villain will play creatures to set me up for an advantageous (Pyroclasm).

Villain swings for a point in the air, then drops a Pyroclasm-proof (Horned Turtle). Without 2 power, though, the turtle won’t be able to block the hellhound, so after drawing (Terramorphic Expanse), I get in for 5 damage on the maximum hellhound pump. Villain untaps, plays a fourth land, hits me again with the owl, then taps out for a (Giant Spider). I sacrifice my (Terramorphic Expanse) in response, but am I fetching a Forest or a Mountain?

R1G1 #2

Villain is not cooperating on my “devastating (Pyroclasm)” plan, so I have to ask myself whether it’s more important to be able to cast any single-green spell I might draw, or to maximize the power of my two (Seismic Strike)s and the hellhound. I opt for the Mountain, as then any land draw allows me to take out the spider and make it through for 4 damage unless Villain is ready to chump the hellhound.

I do rip a Mountain, strike the (Giant Spider), and hit for four. Note that Villain did not attack with the (Horned Turtle), but didn’t block with it either. This is a fairly common leak: not attacking—particularly with defensive creatures like the turtle—when you don’t intend to block with them on your opponent’s turn. Protecting against haste creatures like (Lighting Elemental) is a potentially legitimate reason for holding back, but not at double-digit life totals. It only cost Villain a point of damage, but that point will be the difference between winning and losing sometimes.

I pass the turn, and Villain enchants my hellhound with (Ice Cage) before swinging for two and casting a (Gorgon Flail). I pull a (Goblin Piker) and plan the turn. What’s the play?

R1G1 #3

Who says red can’t deal with enchantments? I cast (Sparkmage Apprentice) targeting the (Fiery Hellhound), knocking off the (Ice Cage) in a flavorful clash of fire and ice. Wounded but not dead, the hellhound continues the assault, making it a 16-6 game after a full pump.

Villain plays a sixth land, equips the (Gorgon Flail) to the (Horned Turtle), swings with the owl, and drops a (Snapping Drake) post combat. I pull a sixth Mountain, and assess my options. What’s your play?

R1G1 #4

I could take out the turtle with the (Seismic Strike) and (Pyroclasm) away all the creatures, but clearing the board is not what I want to do with (Capricious Efreet) in hand. (Capricious Efreet) with a populated board is a true bomb; on an empty board, its basically unplayable. If I play the efreet now, my odds of a win are extremely high. If Villain has nothing, at worst I’ll lose my (Sparkmage Apprentice) and then have the seismic/pyro play for to clear the path for the efreet to do the final 6 anyway. If I can hit my 67% next upkeep, the game is all but mine even if Villain has a relevant play.

Villain has a pretty relevant play, dropping an Island and tapping out to add (Sphinx Ambassador) to the battlefield before attacking with the (Snapping Drake), dropping me to 12. The efreet’s ability goes on the stack, and I target the apprentice, the sphinx, and the turtle for a 67% chance at the win right now.

R1G1 #5

I watch the graveyards closely while waiting for priority to pass, and happily see the (Horned Turtle) appear. Villain concedes to the (Seismic Strike) on the (Sphinx Ambassador), and I don’t have to show the (Pyroclasm). Now that you can view the replays of all the games in your draft as soon as they finish (more on that later), protecting information can pay dividends through multiple rounds.

The (Fiery Hellhound) played extremely well against green/blue’s general lack of instant-speed removal, so I bring in the second hellhound in for the (Goblin Piker), who is quickly outclassed by green’s common creatures.

R1G2

On the play, do you keep or ship these seven?

This hand concerns me, and when seven-card hands concern me, I usually just ship them, but it definitely has some things going for it. The great news is, any land in my first three draws gets me a turn-three (Goblin Artillery), who is always a game-changer when resolved early and not dealt with. Combined with the (Rod of Ruin), there aren’t many opposing creatures that will survive the pair. The rod is slow, though, and without a Forest in the first five draws, this will feel an awful lot like a mulligan to five. Two Mountains, a (Goblin Artillery), a (Canyon Minotaur) and a (Rod of Ruin) are a pretty solid mull to five, though, so I keep.

I find a Forest and a (Lightning Bolt) in my first two draws, and I see a turn-two (Sage Owl) across the way once again. After hitting me for 1 with the owl, Villain casts a (Centaur Courser). Is the vanilla 3/3 worth a (Lightning Bolt) when I have (Rod of Ruin) and (Goblin Artillery) in hand?

R1G2 #1

I think it is. If I intend to take it down with the artillery/rod combo, the courser is going to get in for 6 while I spend two turns getting it online, and then the artillery is going to do three more while I kill it. If I can get my control elements into place with a high life total, I should win this game, and using the bolt now supports that plan. I burn out the centaur, untap, draw a second Forest, and play out the (Goblin Artillery). Villain hits me in the air again, plays a fourth land, casts a second (Sage Owl), then passes with an Island and a Forest up.

I pull my second land, and have to choose between the (Rod of Ruin) and the (Canyon Minotaur).

R1G2 #2

I was already thinking (Rod of Ruin) to play the control role, and the strong possibility of (Essence Scatter) cements the decision. (Negate) is certainly possible, but (Essence Scatter) is definitely more played than (Negate). I bring down my second source of repeatable direct damage and pass the turn.

Shortly after, I’m facing an attack from a couple of owls. I will have the rod to take them out with no pain to me coming up, but is it worth taking three to take one out now?

R1G2 #3

I should take three to kill one of them if not doing so will result in three or more damage. If I spend my next two turns ruining owls, neither will get in three damage. I also have the (Lightning Bolt) available during that process, so I let the damage through. Strangely, Villain casts an (Illusionary Servant). He may have thought that, with nothing else to do facing a board full of targeted abilities, he was turning his (Illusionary Servant) into a (Lava Spike) when I take it out with the artillery. However, the servant is sacrificed in response to being targeted, and the damage from the (Goblin Artillery), including the 3 to me, fizzle with the target now gone.

I draw a fifth Mountain, play it, and decide between sticking to plan and using the rod, or doing the (Bramble Creeper) audible. Then I have to decide whether I’m attacking with the (Goblin Artillery) or leaving him up on sniper duty. What’s the plan for the turn?

R1G2 #4 

I opt to ping one of the owls and leave bolt mana up, but I think that was me making the wrong play in the moment in order to prevent owl damage and feel “correct” about my previous decision to not use the (Goblin Artillery) on an owl. If I could do this again, I would go ahead and play out the (Bramble Creeper), take a couple more hits from the owls, and set up for the (Borderland Ranger)/(Rod of Ruin) play on turn six. I swing in for one with the (Goblin Artillery), looking for some pain-free damage.

Villain spends turn six enchanting my (Goblin Artillery) with (Entangling Vines), and he’s down to his last owl as I untap for my sixth turn. By the same logic that has me thinking I should have cast the (Bramble Creeper) last turn, I should cast it this urn over the (Borderland Ranger)/(Rod of Ruin) play. I realize the right play this time, and play out the creeper over taking out the owl.

Villain (Ponder)s, chooses not to shuffle, makes his fifth land drop, and passes. This is a little odd, given that his three cards are certainly spells. I pull a (Centaur Courser) off the top and warily assess my turn.

R1G2 #5

I can’t think of many threatening instants in this spot, at least, none that change my decisions. I ping the (Sage Owl) to feel for a (Giant Growth), and when none materializes, I swing in with the (Bramble Creeper), which hits for five. I can simply play out the (Centaur Courser), or I can play the (Borderland Ranger), fetch a Mountain to have (Lightning Bolt) mana up, and set up a seven-mana turn next, where I can pair the (Canyon Minotaur) with either the (Centaur Courser) or (Rod of Ruin). The ranger play creates a whole lot of options and flexibility for the small cost of playing a 2/2 instead of a 3/3, but I play out the centaur to maximize my on-board power. It’s a small decision, but I like the ranger play in retrospect. In particular, having the (Lightning Bolt) ready for Villain’s turn would be great.

Villain untaps and casts a (Cudgel Troll) with regeneration mana up. Remember when regeneration wasn’t that great because so much removal had “no regeneration” clauses? (Terror) and (Incinterate), I’d like you to meet (Doom Blade) and (Lightning Bolt). (Cudgel Troll) with green mana up is a house against decks without evasion in this format in a way it simply would not have been in Tenth Edition. I pull a Mountain on my draw, and plot the turn.

R1G2 #6

Villain will have no choice but to block an attack, and I have no choice but to expend two cards to take out the troll. I swing in with both, and after the troll blocks and regenerates to destroy the (Bramble Creeper), I hit the troll with (Lightning Bolt) to finish it off. Then, in the slightly more flexible play, I cast the (Borderland Ranger) and leave rod mana up over casting the 3/3 (Canyon Minotaur). Villain taps out for a (Stampeding Rhino), I ping for one at end of turn, and find more land on top. Am I attacking with zero, one, or both creatures here?

R1G2 #7

If I attack with both and Villain blocks the 2/2, I get him to 7, effectively 6 with the rod, but lose a creature. If I just attack with the centaur, I’m essentially offering a trade. After that, I’ll have a 2/2, a 3/3, and a (Rod of Ruin) to face whatever three spells Villain has. I like that scenario better, so I send in the 3/3 and offer the trade., Villain declines, which is either great for me, or terrible for me because he knows something I don’t. Villain makes a (Llanowar Elves) and passes, and I take out the elves to prevent chump blocking.

I draw my other (Centaur Courser), and that basically seals the game. Villain even has the (Regenerate) to save the rhino when I attack in with everything, but still takes 5 on the attack, going to 2 and facing an unwinnable spot. I drop my replacement (Hill Giant), and Villain untaps and concedes.

R2G1

I win the roll and assess my seven on the play:

Removal and a sweeper, but zero creatures and a big potential for flood. Keep? Ship?

Wait! There’s information you should know before deciding.

Scouting Round Two

Scouting between rounds is something I should have covered by now, but better late than never, right? In the event tab of your draft, you can double-click on a matchup and bring up a sub window of the completed games in that match. Double-clicking on those games starts a replay, allowing you to watch every completed match in your event. Not everyone uses these replays, although anyone trying to use every means available to win should be. I actually wish replays weren’t available until the end of the tournament, because as a Spike looking to maximize my chance of winning, I now feel compelled to spend my time between rounds watching replays and taking screen captures instead of getting a snack or surfing youtube.

I bring up every replay I can, and use the “skip turn” button to cruise to the end of the replay, where I take a screen capture. Then, when I establish who my round-two or round-three opponent is, I go back and review their deck contents. Warning: if you spam the “skip turn” button, you are likely to make Magic Online crash, and I have yet to find a way to bring up the event tab again after such a crash. So, if you spam "skip turn,” you will cost yourself the ability to see replays for the remainder of the event.

In any case, here are the screen shots I had for my round-two opponent:

With that information at the ready, let’s take another look at that mulligan decision…

R2G1

I win the roll and assess my seven on the play:

Removal and a sweeper, but zero creatures and a big potential for flood. Keep? Ship? What if this were R1G1? Do the opponent replays change the decision?

Discuss in the comments and we’ll pick this match up next week…