Waiting for Godot: The Worldwake Metaquake

Hey folks, welcome back! I was initially thinking of using this article to review as many single cards from Worldwake as I could manage, but I’ve changed my mind. You can hear my opinion of every common and uncommon in Worldwake by listening to Limited Resources numbers 17, 18, and 19, so I’m going to use this column to get a view of Zendikar-Worldwake Limited from a bit higher up, but still purely from a common and uncommon perspective.

Last week, I wrote about the concept of small-set analogs: cards that serve a similar function as a card in the large set at the “same” rarity. (Last week’s article will also explain why that word needs quotes.) I also wrote that close analogs are the first thing I look for in a new small set. They are fairly easy to spot and process once you know to be looking for them and have a true understanding of card rarity. Accordingly, I’m going to leave those to you this week.  After all, once you see Groundswell for the first time, you shouldn’t need a Magic writer to tell you to start factoring it in as a possibility where before your read would have been (Primal Bellow) or (Vines of Vastwood).

This week, I’ll take a look at each color for the second thing I look for when assessing a new small set: its key gains, key losses, and game-changers. The key gains and losses are places where the availability or power level of cards in a given aspect of gameplay—e.g., removal, tricks, flyers, beaters, defenders, fatties, weenies, fixing—has shifted dramatically. Game-changers are individual cards that are so powerful, different, or both, that they have a dramatic impact on the environment all on their own.

Collectively, these are the areas that will require the biggest mental overhaul as we adjust to the impending pack-three curve ball. Let’s take it color by color.

White

Biggest Gains: Aggressive Allies

Biggest Losses: Aggressive non-allies and removal

Game-Changers: Ruin Ghost

The addition of Hada Freeblade and Join the Ranks are going to change the ally game dramatically in post-Worldwake limited. The implications of instant-speed, double ally trigger are staggering, as is a one-drop “warrior” ally in the same color. You want a turn-four concession? How about turn-one Hada Freeblade, turn-two (Kazandu Blademaster), turn-three (Umara Raptor), turn-four Join the Ranks? That sequence—two commons and two uncommons—does 22 damage unopposed. I had to take my shoes and socks off to figure out that one!

As excited as I am about the prospect of base-white ally decks in ZZW, I have some concerns for white outside that archetype. There are no real analogs in the set for (Steppe Lynx), (Kor Hookmaster), and (Windborne Charge), and while there are two serviceable common 2/2 flyers in Apex Hawks and Fledgling Griffin (ok, flyer-esque), neither approach the sensational (Kor Skyfisher), whose 3 toughness and “drawback” of reusing enters-the-battlefield permanents will be sorely missed from the third pack. 

On the removal front, the news is even worse. While Refraction Trap is a nice upgrade to (Pitfall Trap), we are losing a pack of (Journey to Nowhere) and replacing it with a pack of Iona’s Judgment. Iona’s Judgment exiles a creature or enchantment for (mana=4)(mana=w) at sorcery speed, and while more flexible and irreversible than (Journey to Nowhere), at three mana more, Iona simply charges too much for her judicial services. Also, (Journey to Nowhere) has the fantastic interaction with bounce spells where you return the journey with the “exile” effect on the stack, permanently exiling the target and effectively upgrading your bounce spell into a (Journey to Nowhere).

Meanwhile, white’s big game-changer is Ruin Ghost. In Zendikar, only (Living Tsunami) and (Frontier Guide) said, “Yes, you get a landfall trigger each turn for the rest of the game as long as I’m around.” Living Tsunami asks for the high price of never being able to increase your land count again without some means beyond your Garfield-given right to play a land once per turn. Frontier Guide requires four mana for the trick, doesn’t do anything relevant on offense, and can’t pull off any fun shenanigans with “enters the battlefield” lands like the tsunami can. It does, however, enable fairly consistent double landfall and instant-speed landfall in a way that the tsunami does not.

Ruin Ghost, meanwhile, is like this amazing hybrid of the guide and the tsunami, taking some of the best features of each. It’s about as relevant on offense as the guide, but also like the guide, it doesn’t ask you to stop developing your mana in exchange for permanent landfall, and it enables double landfall and instant-speed landfall. Like the tsunami, Ruin Ghost can pull of recursive “landspell” shenanigans as it triggers landfall each turn, and also like the tsunami, it does its trick for free.

Wait, for free? Yes. While it costs (mana=w) to activate, if you tap a Plains for (mana=w), then target that tapped Plains with the Ruin Ghost ability, the Plains will blink back into play untapped. Besides interacting with every landfall card in the block and every “enters the battlefield” land in the format, it also does subtle things like filtering mana for (mana=w). Need to get out a (mana=g)(mana=g) spell with a Forest and a Plains? Tap both for mana, blink out the Forest, and tap it for the second green when it comes back. How about two life a turn from (Kabira Crossroads)? How about threatening to blink your Sejiri Steppe into play and grant a creature protection from the color of your choice in response to removal spells? Ruin Ghost is quite the card for this format.

While white has suffered a significant blow with downgraded or missing analogs for (Journey to Nowhere), (Kor Hookmaster), (Steppe Lynx), (Kor Skyfisher) and (Windborne Charge), the addition of some excellent ally cards and the Ruin Ghost still leave me with hope for the color, especially for a paired with blue, whose (Windrider Eel)s and (Umara Raptor)s will benefit nicely from Worldwake’s new white cards.

Blue

Biggest Gains: Card drawing

Biggest losses: Flyers

Game-Changers: Tideforce Elemental, Halimar Excavator, Vapor Snare

Blue has finally picked up a couple of real card-drawing spells at common. Treasure Hunt has been one of the most talked-about cards in the set since it was spoiled, and for good reason. It has fascinating applications in Constructed, and Johnnies and Spikes around the world have been proposing ways to abuse it since it hit the official spoiler last week. In limited, it is mostly just a two-mana spell that replaces itself with, on average, one spell and seven tenths of a land. Given that blue mages have been working with the terrible (Ior Ruin Expedition), I’ll take it happily. Treasure Hunt also combos nicely with the new blue “landspell” Halimar Depths, which allows you to reorder the top three cards of your library when it enters the battlefield. “Spell, land, land” seems like a good order to put them back on top of your library with a Treasure Hunt in hand.

The other common card drawer is Mysteries of the Deep. Instant-speed, net-positive card drawing is a rare thing in Magic these days, but five mana for two cards is hardly an exciting deal, and to get a third card out of it right before you untap, you’ll need instant-speed landfall. In Constructed, fetchlands make this quite doable, but in Limited, your options are, well, you know. Personally, I’ll be happy to get three cards for five mana at sorcery speed, and if I have the Ruin Ghost to go instant on it, fantastic. I just want to never have to play (Ior Ruin Expedition) ever again. Just remember that there are many non-permanent landfall cards like this one in Worldwake, and if you have them in your deck, it is imperative that you hold a land in hand to take maximum advantage of them when you topdeck them.

Blue’s biggest loss comes in the lower density of good flyers. Zendikar has four common flyers I’m happy to play in (Welkin Tern), (Umara Raptor), (Windrider Eel) and (Sky Ruin Drake), plus the excellent (Living Tsunami) at uncommon. Worldwake offers only the Wind Zendikon at common, and a couple of three-powered flyers in Horizon Drake and Voyager Drake at uncommon. While I like all three of these flyers, it’s a significant drop in quality flyer density, which has been the best reason to play blue in triple Zendikar.

The good news is, blue has several game-changers worth mentioning. The Halimar Excavator, discussed last week, makes a viable white-blue ally mill strategy, where before you only had (Hedron Crab) for an occasional lucky mill win that I never recommended running without multiples and maybe an (Archive Trap).  Vapor Snare is a (Mind Control) with the (Living Tsunami) clause, giving blue a two-for-one creature stealer and guaranteed landfall. I expect to be first-picking Vapor Snare in pack three a lot in the months to come.

Tideforce Elemental is a game-changer along the lines of Ruin Ghost (and in fact together they are quite the brainsplitting duo). If Tideforce Elemental were just a simple tapper, it would still have had a noticeable impact on Zendikar limited. The landfall ability combined with the power to untap creatures as well puts it into the game-changer category. The possible interactions are daunting even to consider. Board states involving Tideforce Elemental will be among the most challenging, skill-testing scenarios you will face in ZZW.

I’m concerned about the impact cuts to blue’s Air Force budget will have on its viability in WWZ, but I’m also excited to draw some cards in blue again, and to test drive Vapor Snare and Tideforce Elemental. Maybe I’ll even start drafting (Hedron Crab)s…

Red

Biggest Gains: Artifact hate

Biggest losses: Cheap beaters, burn

Game-Changer: Cunning Sparkmage

Wow, red has taken a big hit in Worldwake. I really had to stretch to find a true gain, but it effectively comes down to one card, the Tuktuk Scrapper. It is nice that red has a good artifact hater in a set with so much quality equipment, but past the game-changer I’ll get to below, that’s about the only nice thing I can say about what has happened to red, easily my most drafted color in Zendikar.

Red’s strengths in Zendikar are a high density of cheap, aggressive creatures, and a high density of playable-to-great burn spells. Outside of the allies-only Akoum Battlesinger, however, Slavering Nulls is the only two-mana creature Worldwake has for red at common or uncommon, and it’s a creature that, without swamps, is a (Goblin Piker). At uncommon. This is a devastating development for aggro red archetypes.

The only worse development is the sorry state of burn in Worldwake. Yes, Searing Blaze it teh new hotness (pun intended), but that’s where it ends. There is literally not another burn spell at common or uncommon in the set (the horrible Rumbling Aftershocks does not qualify). This is coming off Zendikar, which has (Burst Lightning), (Inferno Trap), (Punishing Fire), (Spire Barrage), (Magma Rift), and even creatures like (Torch Slinger) and (Murasa Pyromancer) throwing burn around. Searing Blaze is great, but it cannot be an analog for seven Zendikar spells.

Do you know why Wizards made the quality of red commons and uncommons so poor in Worldwake? Because they made its game-changer so good. I honestly think the Magic Development team felt it would be too imbalanced to give red both analogs to Zendikar’s burn and cheap beats and give it Cunning Sparkmage. This is the same principle by which black was so awful in Shadowmoor Limited: it had (Incremental Blight). Cunning Sparkmage is Worldwake’s Incremental Blight: the uncommon with such blowout potential that the rest of the color had to be nerfed in order for it to exist. The list of common and uncommon creatures that die to Cunning Sparkmage in Zendikar is extremely long—see the pile to the right for just some of the commons from Zendikar that die to an active sparkmage. The full list of creatures at common and uncommon from both sets is much longer. So much so, I didn’t think we would see a pinger in Worldwake. Yet, here he is. With haste, no less, so that you can take out at least one creature with him before your opponent can kill him, or drop him after combat to finish off that blocker clinging to its last point of toughness. 

One-toughness creatures of Zendikar block, you are all on notice! There is a new sheriff in town, and he’s carrying quite a load, because the rest of the red in Worldwake represents a dramatic downgrade from the powerful red of Zendikar.

Black

Biggest Gains: Targeted removal

Biggest Losses: (Vampire Nighthawk), (Marsh Casualties)

Game-Changer: Caustic Crawler (sort of)

Black is funny, it feels like it’s changing to stay the same. It’s losing quite a bit, starting first and foremost with a pack’s worth of the uncommon powerhouses (Vampire Nighthawk) and (Marsh Casualties). It is also losing a pack’s worth of (Crypt Ripper)s for heavy black, and (Giant Scorpion)s and (Heartstabber Mosquito)s for the more controlling black builds. It is gaining a very nice zendikon in Corrupted Zendikon, turning a land into a simple 3/3 for (mana=1)(mana=b) (see last week for a discussion of the inherent drawbacks of zendikons). It will do its best to fill the shoes of (Crypt Ripper) and (Nimana Sell-Sword).

The common targeted removal is getting worse overall. While Tomb Hex is a fantastic, splashable (Disfigure)/(Hideous End) hybrid analog, Brink of Disaster and Dead Reckoning are big steps down, leaving Tomb Hex to carry the common analog load. However, the new uncommon targeted removal is excellent, with (Smother) reprinted, Urge to Feed as a black-intensive (Last Gasp) with major vampire benefits, and Nemesis Trap as a great late-game removal spell against non-white (perhaps this is the analog to (Heartstabber Mosquito) in the end), and a sick blowout spell at any time against white.

Caustic Crawler is not going to be quite the format-warper that Cunning Sparkmage will be, but we will certainly feel its similar impact. It kills most of the same creatures as Cunning Sparkmage (it’s worse against allies because it will have a hard time pinging them with the initial +1/+1 on the stack), but the sparkmage costs three and has haste, while the crawler costs five and only has “haste” if you have a land to play that turn. In fact, he only pings if you have a land to play at all (and is disgusting with (Harrow) mid-combat). You will have the land often enough to make him a powerful card in the format, but not with enough reliability to be at Cunning Sparkmage levels. And thank goodness for that, black is plenty powerful as it is.

Basically, I see black shifting its strengths around a bit, but becoming slightly weaker and less flexible in the process. By starting with (Vampire Nighthawk) and (Marsh Casualties) at uncommon, it had nowhere to go but down, really, but I think black will remain the best color in the format because of the excellent new uncommon removal spells.

Green

Biggest Gains: Allies and acceleration

Biggest Losses: Racing tools and landfall

Game-Changers: Bestial Menace

(Oran-Rief Survivalist) is a fantastic ally, but (Joraga Bard) and (Tajuru Archer) are a bit lacking. Green makes some significant gains in overall ally quality in Worldwake, with the uncommon Vastwood Animist turning spare lands into practically free beef, and the common Graypelt Hunter stepping in as a “warrior” (Wild Elephant) ally that leaves (Joraga Bard) looking even worse than before for four mana. I’m very excited by the prospect of base white-green ally decks in ZZW because of the gains both colors have made in that department with Worldwake, and because of green’s ability to enable ally splashes from additional colors.

In the loss department, green has no landfall beyond the serviceable-but-boring Snapping Creeper. After abusing (Grazing Gladehart), (Baloth Woodcrasher), (Turntimber Basilisk), and (Territorial Baloth) with (Harrow), it will be a shock to have no such tricks in green Worldwake. This is particularly true of the gladehart, which along with (Nissa's Chosen) have been vital to green’s limited ability to compete with the aggressive decks of Zendikar. We’ll see if gaining a (Llanowar Elves) analog in Arbor Elf can accelerate green enough to make up for losing the gladehart and the chosen. I’m also concerned about the dent to monogreen strategies coming with the loss of (Timbermaw Larva) and (Primal Bellow) but Leatherback Baloth will make a nice addition to that archetype, so perhaps it will be a wash.

The biggest game-changer I see in green is the “cone of dudes,” Bestial Menace. Putting six power across three creatures for only five mana and a single card will be a blowout on turn five for a green deck that powered out men on turns one through four and has tricks for the attack on turn six.

Lands & Artifacts

Biggest Gains: Landspells

Biggest Losses: Equipment

Game-Changers: Quicksand (at common!)

There is a new cycle of common “landspells” that enter the battlefield tapped in exchange for a cantrip-level effect, and they will be a solid addition to most decks on color. Khalni Garden puts an 0/1 plant token into play, which will frequently feel like a (Kabira Crossroads) lifegain effect when it chumps an attacker, although the plant can strap on some equipment and swing. The blue land, Halimar Depths, allows you to reorder your top three, which is a nice turn-one draw-smoother, and is great, as mentioned, with Treasure Hunt. Bojuka Bog is unplayable, Smoldering Spires feels like a playable downgrade from (Teetering Peaks), while Sejiri Steppe is like a much more flexible version of Smoldering Spires, and can be abused with Ruin Ghost. I also like Pilgrim's Eye quite a bit as a colorless, flying (Borderland Ranger): much better than (Expedition Map) (unless you are trying to search up (Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle)).

Equipment has fallen off a bit in Worldwake. Zendikar’s (Trusty Machete) is one of the cards you want to open in Zendikar draft, and while Hammer of Ruin tries to fill the void, the extra cost preventing it from being a turn-one play and the lack of a toughness boost make it a big step down. The equipment destruction is going to be randomly good sometimes, but not reliably enough to put it in the machete’s league.

The one-mana cost issue is the important point in all the equipment downgrades in Worldwake. The playable Zendikar equipment, (Trusty Machete), (Adventuring Gear), and (Explorer's Scope) (in that order) all cost (mana=1) to cast. In Limited, where worthwhile turn-one action can be hard to come by, this is part of what makes them playable. No common or uncommon equipment in Worldwake has that cost, and that is a major setback for all of them, as is the lack of a (mana=1) equip cost on any of them. And Razor Boomerang is just embarrassing.

The game-changer is the reprinting of (Quicksand) at common, something I thought had to be a mistake in the spoilers. The wide availability of land-based removal for two-toughness ground attackers in any color will dramatically change Zendikar Limited. (Bladetusk Boar), (Surrakar Marauder), (Turntimber Basilisk), most vampires, and many other format-defining ground pounders are about to sink into the sand. Granted, you aren’t going to want to crack a quicksand on turn two, but with a couple of these in your deck, you won’t live in fear of death-by-intimidate like I do in triple Zendikar, staring at two (Guul Draz Vampire)s or a (Bladetusk Boar) on 12 life running a non-red, non-black deck.

The impact of Quicksand at common will be so profound, I’m really not sure if it will feel like an R&D mistake, or exactly what I was asking for: a card to bring aggro red/black strategies down to earth (literally in this case).

Prerelease Ho!

I’m not sure if this article will reach you all before the prerelease. If it does, have a great time there, and if it doesn’t, I hope you had a great time. Oliver is raring to play! He has jumped onto the parental bed at 7:00 AM every day this past week and asked, “Are you ready for the big tournament on Saturday, Dad?” “You bet I am, Ollie!”

Best alarm clock ever!

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Waiting for Godot – It’s a Small Worldwake After All

First, an apology. Barring the holidays, I’ve done my best to maintain a weekly column for puremtgo.com, but the juggle of life is a tough act, and you know what they say: when the juggling gets tough, the tough let their Magic-column ball hit the dirt. Or something like that. I’m paraphrasing. At any rate, I’ll continue to write articles as regularly as I can, but I need to be realistic about it, too. If you check the site on a given week and don’t see a new Waiting for Godot, you can figure the juggling has gotten tough again. I apologize in advance, but at least, unlike my namesake Beckett character, I do actually show up sometimes.

But enough about that. I was debating my options for this column, and I even started an Alara “block booster” draft walkthrough, but my heart just wasn’t in it (the draft or the walkthrough, really). Let’s face it: it’s awfully hard to be excited about doing a triple-Zen or Alara-anything walkthrough when the Worldwake spoilers have begun to flow, so why fight it? Let’s take a look at some of the officially-spoiled Worldwake commons with an eye toward their impact on Zendikar drafting.

First though, I want to touch on a couple of considerations for evaluating small-set commons and uncommons entering a triple-large-set Limited environment.

It’s a Small, Small Worldwake

Rarity in Magic is a funny thing. On the simple surface, there are four rarities in Magic as of the Shards of Alara expansion, up from three previously: mythic, rare, uncommon, and common. In actuality, it’s more complicated than that. For Limited purposes, the rarity of any given card in any given expansion is best described as the percent chance that it will be in a pack. This is a number that can fluctuate from set to set for each traditional rarity designation. 

Zendikar, for example, has 229 unique non-basic-land cards: 15 mythic, 53 rare, 60 uncommon, 101 common. With ten non-basic commons in a pack (ignoring the possibility foils), there is a 9.9% chance (10 in 101) of any given common being in a Zendikar pack you open. Worldwake, meanwhile—assuming it follows in the footsteps of the other 145-card expansions of the Mythic Era—will have 10 mythic rares, 35 rares, 40 uncommons, 60 commons. That means any given Worldwake common has a 16.7% chance (10 in 60) of being in a Worldwake pack you open. Meanwhile, finding a given uncommon in a Worldwake pack will be a 7.5% shot (3 in 40), up 50% from Zendikar’s 5% chance (3 in 60).

This is a very significant difference when anticipating what commons and uncommons you can reasonably expect to see in that third pack. With individual commons appearing almost 70% more often in Worldwake than in Zendikar, each Worldwake common, in effect, is working nearly double duty to replace the commons from the third Zendikar pack in your draft decks. This understanding leads nicely into another important consideration for small-set impact, and one that will be the focus of my initial look at Worldwake Limited.

Throwing Analogs on the Fire

When you participate in a large-expansion Limited environment for the first time, you are learning an entirely new world. You can apply some basic card evaluation techniques and your historical understanding of Limited to the new cards (removal is good, big evasive guys win games), but, because the folks at Wizards of the Coast R&D are really good at their jobs, there are inevitably things about a new Limited environment as a whole that you aren’t going to fully understand and appreciate until you’ve played it.

On the other hand, when small sets are introduced into a triple-large-set environment, regular drafters have a foundation of experience from which to evaluate the incoming cards. One third of the old familiar cards in your draft decks are about to be replaced with something new, but two thirds are going to be what you’ve already been drafting for months. Accordingly, one of the first things I do with new commons and uncommons from a small expansion is to look for “analogs” to large-set cards.

An analog is a card that fills a similar cost and function to an existing card. Identifying analogs to large-set cards in an incoming small set and assessing how their differences will impact established draft archetypes is a great starting point for evaluating a new small set for Limited. What archetypes are going to maintain their critical mass of parts through analogs? How do those analogs strengthen or weaken those archetypes? Which archetypes are missing key analogs entirely? We won’t be able to answer these questions completely until all 145 Worldwake cards are known and we’ve taken some of them into battle a few times, but there are always clues to be found in the analogs among the early spoilers.

Don’t I Know You from Somewhere?

Worldwake contains two common black cards that effectively demonstrate both the analog principle and the impact “true rarity” has on the comparison of analogs, so I’ll start there.

Pulse Tracker

Pulse Tracker is your pack-three analog for the common one-drop vampires of Zendikar. Like (Vampire Lacerator), the Pulse Tracker can come down on turn one and hit your opponent for 2 life a turn until contained. Like the (Guul Draz Vampire), the Pulse Tracker sports a 1/1 body that becomes outclassed quickly in combat. While the Pulse Tracker doesn’t suffer the lacerator’s drawback of pinging you each upkeep until you’ve “bloodied” your opponent, its inability to trade with X/2s or survive encounters with 1/Xs is a significant downgrade from the suicidal (Vampire Lacerator).

As for the comparison to (Guul Draz Vampire), Pulse Tracker looks much better in the early game, and much worse in the late game. The real strength of the (Guul Draz Vampire) is that it ends games quickly against non-black opponents once you bloody them up. Given that, Pulse Tracker is more of a direct analog to (Vampire Lacerator). In that role, I think it will perform fine for the hyper-aggro monoblack and black-x archetypes that have been so successful in triple Zendikar drafting. Dropping three 1cc vampires in the first two turns with a removal spell for turn three is still going to be great with Pulse Tracker in there.

Because there will be approximately 1.7 times as many Pulse Trackers in pack three as there will be (Vampire Lacerator)s or (Guul Draz Vampire)s in each of packs one and two, the Pulse Tracker will serve analog duty for both of Zendikar’s one-drop vampires.

Hot Tech Aside: Note that the triggered ability of the Pulse Tracker resolves before blockers are declared, so if you have your opponent at 12 with two Pulse Trackers and two Guul Draz Vampires in play, you can attack with everything and have two 3/2 intimidates before blockers are declared. The Pulse Trackers may be on a suicide mission, but the GDVs should mop up from there.

Ruthless Cullblade

Ruthless Cullblade is the other black common doing double-duty analog work in Worldwake for (Surrakar Marauder) and (Blood Seeker). You could argue that the cullblade’s “Bloodied” ability actually makes it more analogous to the (Guul Draz Vampire) than either of these black two drops, but the lack of intimidate makes me shy away from that comparison. In this case, the relevant analog consideration is that it is a vampire for (mana=1)(mana=b) with 2 power, which has it straddling the line between (Blood Seeker) and (Surrakar Marauder). The Cullblade is a little better than (Blood Seeker) and a lot worse than (Surrakar Marauder), making this an overall downgrade for aggressive black decks. 

We’ll see what other common black creatures emerge from Worldwake, but the first two out of the gate feel like an overall downgrade to the aggro black strategies, mainly due to the power drop from (Surrakar Marauder) to Ruthless Cullblade. What analogs, if any, will be in Worldwake for other key contributors like (Crypt Ripper), (Giant Scorpion) and (Nimana Sell-Sword)? We’ll know pretty soon, here.

 

Kitesail Apprentice

While the Kitesail Apprentice ability is far more analogous to the Kor Duelist, the duelist is uncommon, and was never really an impact player in aggressive white strategies to begin with. The closest analog here is to (Steppe Lynx) because they are both common white one-drop creatures. The apprentice is a significant drop in quality from (Steppe Lynx), and could seriously impact the power of aggro-white in ZZW drafting. 

A turn-one (Steppe Lynx) is a groan-inducing play that puts the opposition on immediate notice, likely converting one mana into 6 or more damage before becoming outclassed on the battlefield. Kitesail Apprentice meanwhile has the same problem as (Kor Duelist), which is that you generally don’t even want to play the amount of equipment you’d have to for the ability to be reliably relevant, leading to a card that stinks most of the time while occasionally being great—not what we are looking for in our Limited staples.

Again, without the full set revealed, we can’t know for sure what the true impact of losing a pack of (Steppe Lynx)es will be. Perhaps there is a yet-to-be-revealed common white one drop that can deal 2 damage a turn, and Kitesail Apprentice is more accurately an analog for (Cavern Herda) and (Noble Vestige) (i.e., a common white creature you don’t generally play unless desperate). Until then, I see Kitesail Apprentice as troubling downgrade from (Steppe Lynx) for white ZZW mages.

Vastwood Zendikon

Vastwood Zendikon and its “animate land” effect may be mechanically different from (Territorial Baloth) and (Vastwood Gorger), but ultimately it serves the same roll: high-curve, big green beater. Technically a five drop, Vastwood Zendikon (and all the common man-land makers) function more ideally for an additional mana, where you are creating a man-land with haste. 

I like Vastwood Zendikon more than the (Vastwood Gorger) but less than the (Territorial Baloth). The baloth’s ability to become a 6/6 instead of a 6/4 is not insignificant, not to mention the (Harrow) tricks that can turn an unblocked (Territorial Baloth) into a blowout. I slightly prefer an extra point of power and haste over Vastwood Gorger’s vanilla 5/6 frame, although at least the gorger stops asking for mana after the initial investment, while the man-land aura basically has an upkeep of (mana=1) should you want to attack with it every turn.

All in all, I’d call Vastwood Zendikon a slight downgrade from the (Territorial Baloth)/(Vastwood Gorger) duo, but not an incredibly relevant one. Either your non-evasive green fatty is going to get through for some serious harm or it isn’t, and at that point it doesn’t matter too much whether it’s a (Craw Wurm)-sized man-land or a some other slice of beef.

Halimar Excavator & Wind Zendikon

Not all analogs are as straightforward as comparing (Vampire Lacerator) to Pulse Tracker. In the case of these blue commons, there are several important Zendikar roles spread across a couple of new Worldwake commons, as well as a new twist, making for a more complex assessment of the impact these new blue cards will have on ZZW drafts.

(Halimar Excavator) is an upgrade to (Kraken Hatchling) in the role of early defense. While it can’t block (Plated Geopede) or (Nimana Sell-Sword) the way a (Kraken Hatchling) can, its ability to shut down attacks entirely from multiple 2/1s and 1/1s is a significant improvement, as is the ability to swing for 1 when the coast is clear. 

While Halimar Excavator may be a hatchling upgrade, it’s a clear downgrade from (Umara Raptor) as the common blue ally, mainly because it’s trying to win in a way that none of your other allies are. Producing frighteningly large (Umara Raptor)s has been a big reason for playing blue in triple-Zendikar, even with a light ally theme. The loss of a pack’s worth of (Umara Raptor)s could significantly impact my desire to play blue in ZZW, depending of course on the other blue Worldwake offerings to come.

On the other hand, thanks to Halimar Excavator, it seems there is now a more-viable mill deck to be drafted, teaming Halimar Excavator with multiple (Hedron Crab)s and as many (Ondu Cleric)s and (Makindi Shieldmate)s as you can snag, but it feels quite risky to prioritize Hedron Crabs, (Ondu Cleric)s and (Makindi Shieldmate)s in the first two packs on the assumption that you will find enough Halimar Excavators in pack three to make the strategy work. Still, it’s a deck to look out for.

Stepping in and attempting to make up for the loss of (Umara Raptor) and (Welkin Tern) is another in the man-land aura cycle, Wind Zendikon. This zendikon improves on (Welkin Tern) in terms of blocking and toughness, but the “upkeep” problem with zendikons is far more pronounced in (Wind Zendikon) than it is with Vastwood Zendikon. At least by the time you run the craw aura out there, you are probably at the top end of your curve, where using a land as an attacker each turn isn’t a major setback. It’s a hefty cost to your mana development to play Wind Zendikon on turn two, although as we have seen with (Kor Skyfisher), setting yourself back a turn on mana development can be worth it to enable early evasive beats.

In the late game, Wind Zendikon is clearly superior to (Welkin Tern), providing blue with rare haste—and evasive haste at that—as well as a creature that can actually play some defense if need be. With no other allies, I’d rather have one Wind Zendikon in my deck over one (Umara Raptor), but I’m awfully concerned about the way the zendikons suck up a land each turn (perhaps the white zendikon will have vigilance, which would be sweet). Even the “return” clause in case of death, while nice, still sets you back a turn on mana development.

I’m also assuming there will be one other solid blue flyer at common, given the pack-three loss of (Windrider Eel) and (Sky Ruin Drake) as well. If there is not a decent four- or five-mana common flyer in blue, the color will be quite crippled in ZZW.

Crusher Zendikon

Well, I may as well cover all the known zendikons (as of this writing), since they are all serving as interesting analogs to some common creatures in their colors. In the case of red, we have a blend of (Ruinous Minotaur) and (Shatterskull Giant) with a trample bonus. It technically costs 3 like the minotaur, but effectively 4 like the giant, and it’s lighter on the red requirement than both. It hits for the giant’s power and has the minotaur’s toughness. It doesn’t require a land sacrifice upon dealing damage to a player like the minotaur, but it does require the standard zendikon “land sacrifice” of an effective upkeep of (mana=1) to use it as an attacker instead of a mana producer. 

The trample is nice, but I would still rather have (Shatterskull Giant) pretty much every time because of the extra toughness. I’d rather have Crusher Zendikon over (Ruinous Minotaur) almost every time as well, so at least the red zendikon falls in somewhere between the two Zendikar commons. The difference between two and three toughness is dramatic in Zendikar, though, and the list of two-drop creatures that will happily trade with this zendikon is disturbingly long—too long for me to think of this card as a particularly high pick. That being said, if you are packing enough removal and (Goblin Shortcutter)s, it won’t take too many attacks for Crusher Zendikon to earn its keep.

It’s Not the End of the Worldwake

Well, this article is growing longer (and later) by the minute, so I’m going to cut myself off. That was a lot of words for only a few cards, but hopefully taking a look at analog theory helped frame an approach for looking at the other incoming Worldwake spoilers. Next time—hopefully much sooner—I’ll go over a larger quantity of Worldwake commons and uncommons, including hitting on some cards at the opposite end of the spectrum from the analogs I discussed today: the game-changers. What happens when you insert a pinger into Zendikar Limited, anyway?

Oliver the Green Giant

(For new readers: I occasionally give an update on the progress of my seven-year-old son Oliver’s experiences as an early Magic player.)

My oldest, dearest friend Chris lives down in Portland, and despite that being fairly close to my Seattle stomping grounds, it can feel like Siberia when it comes to actually getting together, as anyone with old friends “close by” understands. While my podcasting partner Marshall introduced me to Magic, I really cut my teeth on the game with Chris. In the summer of 1995, a year or so after playing a couple games with Marshall, I bought a shoebox of Magic cards at a garage sale. Chris and I sat down, split them between us, and slogged our way through the rulebook until we were thoroughly confused and even more thoroughly addicted.

We played together regularly for a couple years until Chris moved away from my influence and eventually fell out of the game, but we’ve continued to play a little sealed together here and there whenever he makes it to Seattle for a visit. Since I began writing Waiting for Godot, though, Chris has been reading, and my influence over him has re-established itself over the internet (Hey Chris!). He’s back in the game, playing frequent Winston drafts and sealed decks with friends in Portland.

Recently, Chris made it up to Seattle for the first time since Oliver learned to play, and the three of us had the opportunity to play sealed with some Lorwyn/Morningtide boosters I had around. I had Oliver sort his cards by color, and then told him to identify some cards he definitely wanted to play, at which point I’d help him make a deck of it.

“Dad, I want to play these,” he said, handing me a pretty pair of (Vigor)s he’d cracked.  

“Excellent choice, buddy,” I replied, “One (Vigor) is great, but two is just sick!” We looked through the rest of his pile and found plenty of support, including a (Primal Command) as a virtual third copy of Vigor, and three copies of (Leaf Gilder) to power out the (Vigor)s before going on the incarnation-enhanced offensive. White was the clear-but-light secondary color, and the triple gilders plus a (Fertile Ground) made (Vigor)’s (mana=g)(mana=g)(mana=g) reliable enough to splash black for his (Shriekmaw), which went perfectly with his other bomby rare, (Galepowder Mage).

Chris ended up with a solid green-red elemental/elf/shaman deck sporting (Imperious Perfect), (Taurean Mauler), (Rage Forger), and four other changelings to knit it all together, as well as two (Mulldrifter)s splashed off a (Smokebraider), a (Vivid Grove), a (Fertile Ground), and (Shimmering Grotto). I went hard into blue-white merfolk with double (Oblivion Ring), (Summon the School), (Judge of Currents), (Merfolk Reejery), (Silvergill Adept), (Silvergill Douser), (Streambed Aquitects), and a (Merrow Harbinger) to fetch up my merfolk of choice.

We didn’t have a ton of time and we spent much of it cracking packs, sorting cards, and tinkering with decks (aka, the fun part), so we played a quick round-robin of one game for each matchup. Oliver and his (Vigor)s proudly went 2-0, although it was the (Shriekmaw)/(Galepowder Mage) combo that ultimately devastated Chris. Meanwhile, I went 0-2 after a tight game against Chris that ended with a (Rage Forger)-enabled alpha strike taking me down.

Oliver and I have kept the decks intact, and are now using them league-style, adding in a pack to each pool every week and evolving the decks. Ollie ripped a second (Changeling Hero), a (Lignify) and an (Oblivion Ring) to make his deck that much stronger, while I only found a second (Streambed Aquitects) to augment my merfolk. I managed to take him in three despite this thanks to some blazing starts on my part and multiple mulligans on his. To his credit, Ollie took the losses like a champ despite some obvious frustration.

The Lorwyn experience has Ollie intrigued by Sealed, and when I told him about the upcoming Sealed events at the Worldwake prerelease, his eyes lit up like it was Christmas. “Can I go with you again and watch you play?” he asked excitedly. “Even better,” I replied. “Now that you know how to play yourself, I was thinking we could enter the Two-Headed Giant event together. What do you think?” Well, continuing the Christmas comparison, Oliver’s response was an explosive cocktail of disbelief, triumph, pride, joy, and living-room gymnastics that made the N-64 Kid look downright demure. I took that as an affirmative.

Hopefully, the Seattle Worldwake prerelease will be the start of a long tradition of Oliver and me taking on Magic prereleases as a double-headed duo. If you are in the area, come down to the Seattle Center for the 1:00 Two-Headed Giant event, and maybe you and your other head will square off against Team Spain as we all sling some Worldwake spells for the first time. To paraphrase Ollie parading excitedly around the house last night, “We will destroy you!”

Waiting for Godot: The Black Plague

Welcome back, and Happy New Year! I hope everyone had a delightful holiday season, or at the very least, a solid late December. I was able to sneak some drafting in during my time off, my time off, and Let’s jump right in with an 84 draft I entered during the break.

  Pack 1 pick 1:

  My Pick:

Opening a black bomb is bittersweet for me in Zendikar drafting at this point. My preference has shifted from black-red to white-red, white-blue, and even green-x decks over fighting for black with three (or more) other drafters, but when the Magic Gods hand you a P1P1 (Ob Nixilis, the Fallen), you strap on your wargear and go to battle for the best color in Zendikar.

As always, take a moment to assess what you are passing before you windmill-click that p1 bomb. I'm noting this is a fairly deep pack, with six other high-quality picks:

(Shepherd of the Lost)
(Kor Skyfisher)
(Baloth Woodcrasher)
(Bladetusk Boar)
(Nissa's Chosen)
(Nimana Sell-Sword)

From there the quality declines quickly, though, going to (Vastwood Gorger), then to (Narrow Escape), and then falling off a cliff. While I'm unlikely to wheel anything of relevance or be able to read any signals from pick nine, there are a couple of important things to note beyond a higher-than-average density of early-caliber picks.

First and foremost for me is the fact that none of the playables in this pack—much less the quality cards—are blue. It’s highly unlikely that I’ll end up with a monoblack deck, so I’m already thinking about my second color as it relates to what I’m passing, and blue is a strong consideration given that it is relatively underdrafted and that I’m not passing any.

Also, with shepherd and skyfisher both likely to go in the next three or four picks and me with a preference against black-white decks anyway because of the awkward mana, I will be staying far away from white. Red and green are still options—green despite passing the baloth because it remains an underdrafted color, and red because it’s deep and great with black—but my mindset out of this pack is that first and foremost I want to cut black, and that if blue seems to be flowing, it would make a good second color based on what I’m passing, here.

  Pack 1 pick 2:

  My Pick:

Adhering to that philosophy, I take the best black card here.

  Pack 1 pick 3:

  My Pick:

This is a perfect spot to test the blue waters. The black spells are both weaker than the eel, and there’s no other good blue I’m shipping, meaning in three packs I will have only sent one good blue card downstream, the (Welkin Tern) from pack two.

  Pack 1 pick 4:

  My Pick:

It’s not out of the question here to veer into green for the (Oran-Rief Survivalist), here, but I’m not tempted by the (Spire Barrage) given that the second and third packs had literally no red cards in them. Maybe they just didn’t have red cards to begin with, but it seems likely that the player passing to me is in red. I play it safe and continue the black cut.

  Pack 1 pick 5:

  My Pick:

This was a tough pick. I like the (Giant Scorpion), and it does the primary job of cutting black, but the (Windrider Eel) is strong, and its presence here is validating my decision to look for blue. At this point, cutting both black and blue have great value for pack two, so I take the stronger card, and one that, as it happens, laughs off the one I’m passing.

  Pack 1 pick 6:

  My Pick:
 
The (Territorial Baloth) suggests that green would have also been a rewarding path to take for my second color, but I’m fine with the (Gomazoa). Pick six and the quality black appears to have dried up. Pretty standard. I’ll run (Vampire's Bite) if my pool dictates it, but I’m not picking it over (Gomazoa) here.

  Pack 1 pick 7:

  My Pick:

Pretty ugly. The best cards in the pack are both red, but it’s more important to send the signal that I’m not in red than it is to cut them. I’m OK with (Hedron Scrabbler) in non-black decks facing multiple (Surrakar Marauder)s, but it will be a bad sign for me if it makes my deck. The other option, again for signaling, is to take the desperation-only (Tempest Owl) over the desperation-only (Hedron Scrabbler), but since I’m the guy who hopes to have the multiple marauders, I take the card that’s good against them.

  Pack 1 pick 8:

  My Pick:

If I had an (Umara Raptor) and a (Nimana Sell-Sword) I would take the (Hagra Diabolist), and really, since (Blood Seeker) isn’t that great, I probably should have taken the diabolist on the chance that I pick up some black/blue allies in the other two packs. I’ve quit (Ior Ruin Expedition)s cold turkey.

  Pack 1 pick 9:

  My Pick:

Someone took the foil Island, leaving me to take the big beefy guy.

  Pack 1 pick 10:

  My Pick:
 
When I’m into pick ten and beyond, I consider any on-color playables I find to be a lovely gift.

  Pack 1 pick 11:

  My Pick:

I raredraft over taking a blue card I can’t see running in this deck.

  Pack 1 pick 12:

  My Pick:

I uncommondraft over taking the full-art Mountain. It was close.

  Pack 1 pick 13:

  My Pick:

Another gift by virtue of it being a playable 13th pick, but hardly exciting. Two full-art lands later, and the pack is finished.

  Pack 2 pick 1:

  My Pick:

This was tough for me. Obviously (Crypt Ripper) can get out of hand and win games in heavy black, and it’s a fine inclusion in even half-black decks. Based on the flow of cards in pack one, though, I figured blue might end up being the dominant color in the deck, so I took the cheap drop in blue.

  Pack 2 pick 2:

  My Pick:
 
A similar tough choice, I again side with the blue flyer over the black beater.

  Pack 2 pick 3:

  My Pick:

This time the black card wins out over the two-powered flyer because it’s still early enough to find a light ally sub-theme, and because (Hill Giants) are solidI wouldn’t be surprised if the (Sky Ruin Drake) tabled.

  Pack 2 pick 4:

  My Pick:

It was painful to leave a (Merfolk Seastalkers) on the table, but, bolstered by the allies taken in the previous two picks, I stayed on theme and took the flyer. This is one of those picks whose real value won’t be known until the draft is over. A couple more raptors and sell-swords from here and I’ll have no regrets. If the black had flowed a little better in pack one, I’d be happy with a (Crypt Ripper), (Vampire Lacerator), and a (Mind Sludge) out of pack two so far. It looks like blue is successfully cut, at least.

(Grappling Hook), seen by many as unplayable, can find a home in the right deck (I’m thinking big-mana green). This isn’t the one, though, as 4+4 is still too much to pay to give a flyer double strike.

  Pack 2 pick 5:

  My Pick:

I rarely draft this guy, as a 3/3 unblockable for (mana=5) seems like a bad deal in the format. I often just wish it had flying, but it does represent non-flying evasion, which can be handy against flyer hate. I decide to try him over (Into the Roil) here since, with blue being pretty open, I can expect one or two more roils to come my way before the draft is over.

  Pack 2 pick 6:

  My Pick:

Nearly blank for my deck, I take the (Vampire's Bite). Pretty decent when kicked on a 4/4 (Windrider Eel), we’ll see how I feel about it come deckbuilding.

  Pack 2 pick 7:

  My Pick:

Some creature recursion is nice to have with (Ob Nixilis, the Fallen) and vulnerable flyers so I grab the (Soul Stair Expedition), but man it’s a brutally bad topdeck.

  Pack 2 pick 8:

  My Pick:

Hardly the removal I’m looking for in a deck running Swamps, but you take what you can get. If I hit a load of black removal in pack three, maybe I won’t have to play it. I hate passing (Oran-Rief Recluse)s when I’m in blue…

  Pack 2 pick 9:

  My Pick:

Great, the (Into the Roil) wheeled, justifying passing one P2P5, and further verifying that the rest of the table seems mostly uninterested in blue.

  Pack 2 pick 10:

  My Pick:

It was almost the full-art Island, but I take the (Cancel) to be sure I have playables covered.

  Pack 2 pick 11:

  My Pick:
 
Makes splashing for a pack-three (Burst Lightning) not out of the question.

  Pack 2 pick 12:

  My Pick:

Another (Cancel)-over-basic pick, but I close out the draft with the full-art triple play:

So pretty…why someone would ever take a (Desecrated Earth) or a (Mire Blight) over one of these is beyond me.

  Pack 3 pick 1:

  My Pick:
 
About as no-brainer as a P3P1 gets. It will make me play more Swamps than I might have otherwise, but he’s worth it.

  Pack 3 pick 2:

  My Pick:

(Rite of Replication) is a lot of fun, and nice with a (Vampire Nighthawk) in the pile, but I opt to grab a (Crypt Ripper) while I can. Despite my playables being 75% blue at this point, I’m playing more Swamps for the nighthawk, so I’ll be able to feed the ripper adequately. I’m OK with the rites pick; it certainly has a higher upside on the “fun” scale than a (Crypt Ripper) does, and simply wins games if you resolve it kicked (as anything you spend nine mana on should). Beware, though: unlike (Clone), (Rite of Replication) needs a target, and if that target should disappear or become untargatable in response, you just spent four (or nine) mana on trick extraction.

  Pack 3 pick 3:

  My Pick:

Pretty straightforward, and quite welcome, as I’m lower on one- and two-drops than I’d like to be early in pack three. Æther Figment and (Into the Roil) are not two-drops, I don’t care what it says in the upper right corner.

  Pack 3 pick 4:

  My Pick:
 
I go for the 5cc flyer over the 5cc unblockable. (Sky Ruin Drake)’s ability to block well almost always comes in handy.

  Pack 3 pick 5:

  My Pick:

I deliberated for quite a bit between the second (Into the Roil) and the first (Bog Tatters), but I decided blue had given me plenty of evasive creatures, and that another trick was a better fit for the deck than an expensive creature with part-time evasion. I have passed an uncomfortable number of (Bog Tatters), though.

  Pack 3 pick 6:

  My Pick:

Two blue cards I wouldn’t be thrilled to play, and two black cards I’m never going to play. (Summoner's Bane) is a card I like to start in the board, but if Villain shows some expensive creature bombs, I’ll bring it in.

  Pack 3 pick 7:

  My Pick:

Technically correct is the (Soul Stair Expedition), but a second is unlikely to make the cut, and this was shiny and rare. How can I pass up shiny and rare for a card I probably won’t run anyway?

  Pack 3 pick 8:

  My Pick:

Harrow may be the better card in the abstract, but (Timbermaw Larva) is the card that could run all over me. That’s a fairly late (Tuktuk Grunts), too.

  Pack 3 pick 9:

  My Pick:

I’m not going to play this, but as I said, (Ior Ruin Expedition) and I are on a break, and the rest are unplayable. Unfortunately, the rest of pack three is a mix of hate drafts, uncommon drafts, and full-art basics.

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The Deck

Well, like so many other Zendikar decks running swamps, the top end of the black is insane, but the bottom end falls somewhere between pathetic and non-existent. In my case, that shows itself through the complete lack of black removal: not a (Disfigure) or (Hideous End) in sight. My “removal” suite is (Cancel), (Into the Roil), (Paralyzing Grasp), (Gomazoa), and trading in combat with an active (Soul Stair Expedition). Hardly ideal for any black deck. The curve is a bit high, too.

That being said, the deck certainly has the potential to make the finals with a little luck and tight play. If I don’t have mana issues and draw more of my top end than my bottom end, I like my chances.

R1G1

I lose the roll and check my seven on the draw:

Five-land hands are never ideal—you are simply going to be more prone to losing to flood when you keep them. I can cast every spell in my deck with these five lands, and turn one is when you want to be dropping (Kraken Hatchling)s if your plan is to clog the ground and win the race through the air. That pus the (Into the Roil) should buy me enough time to set up. I keep and hope that Villain opens with a (Vampire Lacerator).

A Swamp but no play starts things off, and I pull, naturally, a land. The (Kraken Hatchling) comes down to play eventual D, but a second Swamp-go turn leaves the hatchling with nothing to do. I draw a seventh land, and Villain drops a Plains and produces a (Giant Scorpion). I draw (Windrider Eel) for turn three and still have nothing to do, but I’m heading into my action turns still on 20 life, so I can’t complain too much.

Villain hits for 1, plays a third Swamp and passes again. I draw (Welkin Tern) and drop the eel. To my slight surprise given Villain’s four untapped lands, the eel survives the turn. What I think may be a sign of no removal is clarified when Villain then casts and equips (Spidersilk Net) to the (Giant Scorpion). Why use removal on something that won’t be able to attack anyway? But seriously, (Spidersilk Net) in game one? No fair pre-boarding against me!

I pull (Guul Draz Vampire), drop a land, and plan the turn. What’s your play?

R1G1 #1

That scorpion/net combo is going to be a huge problem for me. (Into the Roil) only addresses it temporarily, but it also digs for an answer or an alternate win condition, so it’s the play here. I kick-bounce the scorpion, draw (Umara Raptor), swing for 4, and drop the vampire with the spare mana. I’m thinking about how to handle the net problem when Villain solves it by introducing an even bigger one: (Sorin Markov) comes down, and I long for the time when my Big Problem was a piece of equipment that I couldn’t attack through.

Sorin promptly drains the eel’s life, and I’m feeling fairly helpless against a planeswalker with a +2 removal ability. I pull my other (Into the Roil) and try to come up with a scenario where I actually win this game.

R1G1 #2

This is just rotten. I could play both creatures in some effort to keep Sorin below 7 loyalty, but Sorin would take care of one, and the scorpion with the net would stop the other. Meanwhile if I don’t play down creatures, (Into the Roil) on Sorin will only delay the inevitable, and eventually the constant barrage of (Vicious Hunger)s and (Syphon Soul)s will crush me. If the (Mindslaver) ability happens to be able to end the game sooner, that works too. It’s all pretty hopeless, but the narrow path out of this is to sit tight and try to draw help, using (Into the Roil) on Sorin before I untap for my next turn.

For some reason though, in the actual game I try for the bum rush, casting both the (Welkin Tern) and the (Umara Raptor). Usually I can find at least some defensible angle explaining a play I’ve made but now disagree with, but sometimes I’m left scratching my head. The only way this accomplishes anything other than poultry for dinner is if I use (Into the Roil) to clear the path instead of bouncing Sorin…but for what? To take Sorin from 7 to 5? That makes no sense.

Really, the only explanation I can come up with is that I stopped thinking too hard about things because I felt so sure I was going to lose. It’s like I’m just casting to cast. I constantly preach playing as though whatever needs to happen will happen for that tiny percent chance you have to win to come to pass, but failed to practice what I preach, here. My only real out is (Into the Roil) plus (Cancel), so I should have played like that was exactly what was going to happen.

Villain, presumably with a shrug and a chuckle, drops and equips the (Giant Scorpion) before Sorin unleashes his (vicious hunger) on the (Umara Raptor). What a surprise! Of course, I then untap and draw (Cancel). Now what?

R1G1 #3

If I had kept my head last turn and held back my creatures, Sorin would have drained the (Guul Draz Vampire) and I would have bounced the planeswalker before untapping, drawing (Cancel) in the process. I’d have the next card down in my library in hand, as well as the two flyers, and a (Cancel). Villain would have no idea the (Cancel) was coming and would likely play Sorin right into it. So, yeah, play for that small percent chance of coming back in a tight spot, OK? I could have started to turn this game around with the correct play, and instead I remain in a rough spot.

I can cast an unkicked (Into the Roil) on Sorin and save (Cancel) for him, but that play is heavily telegraphed. However, if Villain wants to play around the obvious (Cancel), that still keeps Sorin off the table, which is job one. With seven land, I can cast almost anything I draw while keeping (Cancel) mana up.

Alternately, I could attack with both creatures to keep Sorin off of ultimate, lose one to the scorpion and the other to Sorin on the next activation, but the benefit is that I can kick the roil at Villain’s End Step, and the (Cancel) will stay disguised. Because the telegraphed play still keeps Sorin off the table, though, I cast the unkicked roil targeting Sorin before passing the turn.

Villain does indeed play around the (Cancel) with a (maindeck) (Bog Tatters). I swear this is game one! I have 19 life and only slightly more outs to a tatters than I do a planeswalker, but I let it resolve. I draw an Island, and at 8 land I can now cast any spell in my deck and still have (Cancel) mana up. Now I just need to, you know, draw useful spells. Villain hits me for 4 and passes, content to play around the (Cancel) and beat down with the swampwalker.

The turn cycle repeats itself: I draw land, take 4, and Villain has no other play. At 11, I find a spell on top in (Nimana Sell-Sword). Hardly game-saving, but not a land, at least. The tatters drops me to 7 before Villain finally runs out Sorin, and I confirm his read, countering the broken planeswalker. I pull Æther Figment, which gets around the (Giant Scorpion), just not fast enough to matter. My only real out is (Paralyzing Grasp). (Journey to Nowhere) takes out the figment for good measure, and the (Welkin Tern) I draw is not an out to death by tatters.

R1G2

This game was another casualty of MTGO, but I think it was pretty straightforward. Sorin and (Spidersilk Net) did not make an appearance, my flyers did, and that was enough to win the race. I don’t think I sideboarded for this match, but I probably should have played the other (Cancel) and potentially (Sumoner's Bane) since Villan has multiple spells I can’t really beat.

R1G3

On the draw after Villain keeps, I start with a one-lander:

While I have two plays off that single Swamp and two chances at an Island to get the (Welkin Tern) down on the second turn, this is not a keeper. With some luck it would be fine, but gambling on hands like this leads to disaster way more often than it leads to victory. Let’s try six.

Not thrilling, but it will have to do. After Villain’s Swamp-go, I pull a (Welkin Tern), drop an Island and pass. Villain has a second Swamp and no play, and the Æther Figment I draw doesn’t change the turn-two tern plan. Gloriously, Villain has no land and no play, and I rip my other (Welkin Tern) off the top, which may be the only card I would want more than a Swamp in this spot. I hit for 2, drop the second tern, and prepare to deal some sick flying beats.

Villain fails to find a third land, but my plans for aerial domination are crushed by an unkicked (Marsh Casualties), wiping out my terns in a devastating two-for-one. I pull a (Soul Stair Expedition) instead of the much-needed Swamp, salting my wounds nicely. I decline to cast an unkicked figment and pass. Villain beats me to land #3, playing a Swamp and casting (Giant Scorpion). A Swamp shows up for me as well, and (Gomazoa) hits the table before I pass. I take 1 from the scorpion, but Villain has no other land or play, and I take the turn back and rip an Island. What’s the play?

R1G3 #1

The (Giant Scorpion) is really only a concern if I want to start attacking with (Ob Nixilis, the Fallen) at some point, or if it picks up a (Spidersilk Net). In the meantime, I either want to dig for a second Swamp with (Into the Roil) or start getting counters on the (Soul Stair Expedition). I think either play is defensible, but I opt to maximize mana with the (Into the Roil) play, and pass the turn. I take another point from the scorpion after Villain plays a fourth Swamp, and I bounce his post-combat (Guul Draz Specter) with the roil, pulling a Swamp and then drawing a (Sky Ruin Drake). Now what’s the plan?

R1G3 #2

I don’t want to lead with (Ob Nixilis, the Fallen), here. Besides not having any land to actually make him bomby, he can’t attack through the (Giant Scorpion). I have multiple options to stop the specter, so this turn I want to start the beats or draw out removal by playing the Æther Figment. Removal it is, with a main-phase (Hideous End) sending the figment to the yard. Villain sends in the (Giant Scorpion), daring me to use the (Gomazoa). With multiple specter answers in hand and a desire to eventually get Ob Nixilis through, do you take the dare?

R1G3 #3

I decide that since both my methods for dealing with the scorpion involve it attacking, I should take care of it while I can, as it will stay back on defense as soon as I stick my legendary demon. The (Sky Ruin Drake) can manage the specter, and the (Paralyzing Grasp) is a backup plan should something happen to the drake. Waiting another turn to decide what to do about the scorpion isn’t a terrible option either; a lot depends on whether or not you expect to cast Ob Nixilis next turn, thus putting the scorpion in untapped mode.

Speaking of…I rip a (Surrakar Marauder) and face that very decision. What are you casting, here?

R1G3 #4

Between the specter of the specter, the lack of a land to trigger landfall, and concerns about (Journey to Nowhere), I’m leading with the drake here. Villain responds with a Plains and a (Bog Tatters), which now seems like the eventual target for my (Paralyzing Grasp). I pull a (Windrider Eel) and again think on where to invest my five mana. What are you casting here, and how, if at all, does Villain’s last play impact the decision?

R1G3 #5

This is tricky. With Villain’s library at 26 cards, there is a greater than 33% chance that a singleton (Journey to Nowhere) is already in hand. If it were, though, wouldn’t the play last turn have been to cast the specter and then (Journey to Nowhere) the drake? That maximizes mana and sets up for the (Guul Draz Specter) to go to town, but it’s also arguable that Villain just wanted to play the creature that puts me on the shortest clock.

The safe play here is to cast the eel and the (Soul Stair Expedition), but it would be nice to attack with a 6/6 Ob Nixilis if I can pull a land next turn. My gut is telling me to continue baiting the (Journey to Nowhere) until I’m sure it’s not in hand, but my logic looks at Villain’s last play and vetos the gut. After I attack with the drake, Ob Nixilis comes out to play.

Ob Nixilis is promptly sent on a (Journey to Nowhere) before the tatters drops me to 12 and the specter returns to the party. Rough. Was my gut correct, or did Villain peel that journey off the top? My reasoning was sound, but sometimes you have to go with your gut. I draw an Island, and now have six mana to work with. What should I do with it?

R1G3 #6

I can dump everything in my hand but the (Windrider Eel), which is a fine play if Villain has no removal for the drake. It will be pretty bad for me if I lose the drake, but I don’t like taking another 4 damage from the tatters to enable casting the eel this turn as specter insurance. If Villain has removal I’m probably dead no matter what.

Villain doesn’t have true removal, but a (Kor Hookmaster) targeting the drake approximates it well enough. I lose the eel to the discard, the specter becomes a 5/5, and my troubles are mounting. A Swamp adds a counter to the expedition, but leaves the specter in the 5/5 form. I leave back the marauder to trade with the hookmaster, and hope to re-stabilize once my drake untaps again. A solid plan, but after the specter drops me to 5, a second (Bog Tatters) puts me on notice that stopping the flyer alone will not save me.

The game is now virtually unwinnable, my lack of removal coming back to haunt me. With my one (Paralyzing Grasp) already holding down one tatters, I need to draw my other (Into the Roil) and rip(Cancel) off the kicker, otherwise the second tatters will seal the deal in two swings. My first pull is a miss: (Umara Raptor), which goes uncast to keep the specter at a manageable 2/2. I take another 4 from the tatters and fall to 1, calling out for the 1 in 462 chance I have at the top two cards of my library being (Into the Roil) and (Cancel), in that order. Then, Villain’s land drop for the turn makes it a moot point.

Well, I was feeling pretty good back on turn three, but that two-for-one (Marsh Casualties) was ultimately the beginning of the end. I fretted over a lot of narrow decisions in this game, but the thing that really mattered was that a counterspell and a (Paralyzing Grasp) were the only two ways in my deck I had to deal with (Bog Tatters).

Takeaways

This deck and draft feel very symptomatic of drafting black in late-season triple Zendikar: Powerful black cards early in pack compel a disproportionate number of drafters into the color, it dries up quickly, and the bottom end of those black decks become anemic. This results in decks that are fairly swingy, crushing if they draw their nutty black cards and floundering if they draw their bottom end. This trend is why, when I took Ob Nixilis first pick, my immediate thought was to what the second color was going to be. When you start with black picks in Zendikar, you have to be prepared for that second color to become your main color if a (Vampire Nighthawk) and a (Hideous End) were first-picked just upstream.

I’ll still be first-picking (Vampire Nighthawk) and (Hideous End) when I open them, but these days I am quite wary of starting with a couple of black picks. Thanks for reading, and until next week, happy drafting!