Waiting for Godot – M10 #3 – Part 2

Last week, we left of with the mulligan decision for round two, game one. I had

 

In any case, here are the screen shots I had for my round-two opponent:

 

With that information, consider this opening seven on the play.

R2G1

If this were R1G1, I mulligan this hand. It is prone to flooding, and while removal is nice, the hand has no pressure whatsoever. The (Pyroclasm) could be a rock star or a dud depending on Villain's deck, but against an unknown opponent, I wouldn’t want to risk it.

In this case, though, I have information about what I'm up against. Villain is running a (mana=w)(mana=u) flyers deck, and of the 11 creatures I’ve seen in it, a full ten die to (Pyroclasm). As long as I draw reasonably and don’t get too greedy with (Pyroclasm) (or, as an anonymous poster put it in last week’s comments, let a good card make me play badly), this is a starter that will wreck this particular opponent. I keep, and see about the “draw reasonably” condition for making this an excellent starter.

I cross my fingers that I’ll see a turn-one (Zephyr Sprite) across the table, but the first play of the game is Villain’s turn-two (Coral Merfolk). I draw a (Prodigal Pyromancer) and a (Canyon Minotaur) and debate my options on turn three:

R2G1 #1

I played out the Forest instinctively, but the Mountain would have been a better play. I don’t want to summon the (Prodigal Pyromancer) here because I intend to (Pyroclasm) in the next few turns. The (Canyon Minotaur) is a perfect turn-four play: a ‘clasm-proof body that will throw any suspicion that I’m holding back creatures before a mass removal spell. The only thing I might do on turn three, then, is hit a three-toughness creature with (Seismic Strike). Accordingly, I should have played out the Mountain. The only thing a Forest gets me is the ability to play (Master of the Wild Hunt) off the top, which I might not do if I drew him anyway.

Wow, so I just surprised myself. When I do a replay and capture a screen at a decision point and paste it into my editor, I frequently remember exactly what I did, so I will write the post-decision commentary before advancing the replay any further. I thought that was the case when I wrote the preceding paragraph, but when I went back to advance the replay to the next decision point, I witnessed my former self tapping out for (Prodigal Pyromancer). Sitting here now, I really dislike that play. The arguments for it are to draw out a possible (Harm's Way), or to just be aggro here with the upcoming (Canyon Minotaur), preventing Villain from even casting one-toughness creatures by threat of the pyromancer.

If I’m 100% sure I'm up against (Harm's Way) then this play is fine, as I’d rather lose my pyromancer than have Villain save a creature and kill my minotaur after a (Pyroclasm). Assuming there is only one (Harm's Way) in Villain's deck, there’s a 25% chance I'm facing it by next turn; not enough to warrant the pyro play, here. I’ll say this for the play: it certainly disguises my (Pyroclasm) and demands an answer!

Villain untaps, plays a land, attacks for 2, casts a second (Coral Merfolk) and passes. I untap and draw—of course—(Master of the Wild Hunt). So everyone knows what’s going on here, right? Given what you ought to know about this situation, what’s the play for the turn?

R2G1 #2

Obviously, Villain does indeed have (Harm's Way), there is no other reason for playing another creature that will die to (Prodigal Pyromancer). That’s fine, though, it’s actually the result I wanted—I’m happy to trade my pinger for his powerful trick. I ping one of his merfolk, and in a move that shouldn’t surprise anyone, he redirects the damage back onto the (Prodigal Pyromancer) with (Harm’s Way). If you didn’t see the (Harm’s Way) coming there, you need to work on reading telegraphs. When an otherwise-competent opponent does something only a bad player would do, most of the time they have a good reason, and you should be able to figure out that reason based on the mana left up and the board state.

From the replays, the only thing Villain has to deal with the (Master of the Wild Hunt) is a creatively-used (Harm’s Way) and (Essence Scatter). His wolf buddies will die to Pyroclasm, but I want to get my bomb down while he’s tapped out, so, as it turns out, I do rip the one card enabled by playing the turn-three Forest, and cast it. Villain has an answer I didn’t see in the replays: (Ice Cage). (Master of the Wild Hunt) can no longer sick wolves on anything, but he can still call them to his side. Villain hits me for 4 before casting a (Stormfront Pegasus), and I have an interesting spot when I untap, make a wolf, and draw a Mountain:

R2G1 #3

I could hit (Master of the Wild Hunt) with a non-lethal (Seismic Strike) to crack his cage if I do it before playing a Mountain, or I can just play out a Mountain and the (Canyon Minotaur) and accept that I have a wolf token maker. I think pumping out wolf tokens each turn is plenty good, and go with the minotaur plan, reserving my (Seismic Strike) for an opposing creature. The pegasus drops me to 12 while the minotaur holds off the merfolk, and Villain taps out to cast a (Razorfoot Griffin). I draw my other (Canyon Minotaur) after calling in another wolf token, and plan the turn.

R2G1 #3

I thank the wolves for their service and apologize before (Pyroclasm)-ing for the 4:1, swing for 3, and play the other minotaur, turning the game around in an instant. Well, sorcery.

Villain has a solid response with a (Wall of Frost), which I swing into with my minotaurs. The wall blocks one of them, and with three damage on the it, I can finish it off with the (Seismic Strike), but I pass the turn. I believe my thinking was that the wall was annoying, but wasn’t going to be able to help against the flood of wolves, and that I should therefore save the burn spell for something that could actually stop me from attacking. That is a bit of overly-conservative, fancy-play syndrome. Getting that wall out of the way is almost certainly going to end this game faster than saving the removal for some unseen threat that he might have coming. I regretted the choice as soon as I made it.

Villain casts (Divination), then makes a (White Knight). Was my decision correct in hindsight? Is the (White Knight) a better target than the wall? I decide not, declining to burn out the knight before untapping for my turn. I topdeck (Capricious Efreet) to combo with my wolf factory. There’s no benefit to attacking this turn, so I just play the efreet and pass.

R2G1 #4

Villain adds a (Wind Drake) to the battlefield and passes. (Capricious Efreet) is a powerful card that can be pretty straightforward, but any card that targets three non-land permanents each turn will present some interesting choices, too. What are your three targets for efreet this turn?

R2G1 #5

The safe choices are the (Wall of Frost), a wolf token and the (White Knight) or the (Ice Cage). An interesting choice is the (Master of the Wild Hunt) himself instead of a wolf token. Targeting the huntmaster guarantees the (Ice Cage) would drop off, but then there would be a 1-in-3 chance of losing the huntmaster in the process. This is a good move to have in the arsenal for a desperate situation where I need to take out two creatures with the play or lose, but it’s an unnecessary risk here.

(Ice Cage) vs. (White Knight) is more interesting. If I can make the (Ice Cage) fall off, I can use the huntmaster to take out the (White Knight) anyway, but at the cost of a wolf token. I decide to target the knight and the wall to keep maximum wolves going, but in the rear view there is little downside to targeting the cage. Freeing the huntmaster is going to win me this game faster than letting him stay frozen while pumping out wolves and targeting his creatures with the efreet. Knight or cage, the end result is still going to be a dead creature either way, so I may as well free up the (Master of the Wild Hunt) in the process.

It doesn’t look like the decision is going to matter to the game. Villain is either going to need a (Planar Cleansing) and a Plains or a (Mind Control) and some luck to get out of this with a win. Luck is on Villain’s side initially, as I lose my wolf token to the efreet (and in case you are wondering, I had to choose targets before the abilities went on the stack, so I couldn’t choose the wolf with summoning sickness). I rip (Sparkmage Apprentice) and plan the turn.

R2G1 #6

One thing I’m asking myself at this point is: what are Villain’s likely holdings? A land bluff is a strong possibility. A creature seems unlikely, as a 4-or-more casting cost creature would have been played instead of the (Wind Drake), and a 3-or-less casting cost creature would have been played along side the (Wind Drake). (Essence Scatter) and (Sleep) are cards seen from the first round, but the biggest concern is (Safe Passage), which could be a real blowout.

I decide to play as though Villain does not have (Safe Passage), because even if he does, I’ll still be in fine shape. I could play the (Sparkmage Apprentice) precombat to have the huntmaster online for combat, but then my trick is on the table and avoidable. I feel like if I swing with everything, Villain is going to have to stack block the (Capricious Efreet) and try to take it out, which makes (Seismic Strike) into a 2:1. I attack with both 3/3s and the efreet, but Villain only chooses to block a minotaur with the wall. Now what’s the play in the second main?

R2G1 #7

I think the clear play is to cast (Sparkmage Apprentice), unlock the (Master of the Wild Hunt) and take out the wall with a wolf attack. Then I have the (Seismic Strike) for Villain’s turn. I haven’t advanced the replay yet, but I don’t think that’s what I did, because I remember groaning about not doing it during the game. Let’s see…

Yep, I broke the cage with the apprentice, but passed the turn without killing the wall with the strike or the hunter. I don’t know why I’m so insistent on letting that wall live. I also don’t know why I misplayed these past few turns so badly. Not focused? Playing too quickly? Lazy with a commanding board advantage? Probably that last one…with my sick bomb combo going, I was playing the game like victory was a foregone conclusion, and making lazy mistakes as a result. Yes, I am almost certain to win, here, but that’s no reason to get sloppy.

Villain draws and concedes, so my lazy play only costs me some face in this column. I bring in (Mold Adder) from the board and head in for game two.

R2G2

On the draw, I decide on my seven:

An easy keep. I luck out on the turn-one (Mold Adder), and I’m not sure I should have brought it in. I also think I should have sided out the (Regenerate), which certainly has it’s uses against white and blue, but is really at its best against red and black, where it can be a combat trick and counter a lot of removal. My first draw is (Pyroclasm), and I’m liking my chances. My first decision point is on turn three after Villain casts a (Wind Drake).

R2G2 #1

My big question is, do I attack with the (Mold Adder)? I don’t think I can. If I were playing the other side of the table, I would certainly trade my 2/2 flyer for the (Mold Adder). I’d rather hold back on the attack, cast the (pyroclasm)-proof (Centaur Courser) and pass, setting up for a devastating clasm after Mold Adder gets one more counter.

Villain casts (Divination), swings for 2, and passes with a Plains up. I draw (Master of the Wild Hunt), but don’t have the second Forest for it yet. If he had left the (Wind Drake) back on defense I would think it was (Harm’s Way) waiting, but that’s not a good play, here, so I swing in for 6. I cast the (Fiery Hellhound) even though it dies to the (Pyroclasm), because like in R1G1 from last week, I can just play aggressively with it until blowing the (Pyroclasm).

Villain casts an annoying (Siege Mastodon) and passes without an attack, presumably leaving the (Wind Drake) behind to trade with the (Fiery Hellhound). I draw and play a fourth Mountain, and plot the turn.

R1G2 #2

I don’t want to use the (Regenerate) to save the hellhound when blocked by the (Wind Drake) so the (Fiery Hellhound) is going to sit. I could send in the courser, hope he blocks with the mastodon, then regenerate the courser and (Pyroclasm). That would trade my (Pyroclasm) and (Fiery Hellhound) for his two creatures, but that’s not a fantastic trade and it telegraphs a trick. Besides, it only works if he blocks, which I wouldn’t in Villain’s shoes. I’d rather sit back, find another Mountain so the (Seismic Strike) can take out the mastodon by itself, and set up the killer ‘clasm. I pass the turn.

Villain bends me over with (Sleep), and swings for 5, dropping me to 13. I draw a (Lightning Bolt), and decide if I should do anything this turn:

R2G2 #3

Being defenseless for two full swings has me a little more nervous than I was when I declined to attack in an attempt to take out the mastodon, and this time, I can take out Villain’s team without blocking required. Also, without any white mana available, I can sneak it all in without fear of (Harm's Way) wrecking me. I opt to (Regenerate) the hellhound, (Pyroclasm), then (Lightning Bolt) the (Siege Mastodon). I don’t like giving my opponents 3:2s in their favor, but in this case, it nullifies half a (Sleep) and puts me in an advantageous board situation.

I leave myself with the only creatures on the board, and (Villain) rebuilds by tapping out for a (Phantom Warrior) and a second (Sleep). My deck obliges me with a second Forest, and I play (Master of the Wild Hunt) without fear of (Essence Scatter). Villain has a (Lifelink) for his (Phantom Warrior), which I’m always happy to see an opponent play. the lifelinked warrior swings the game to 15-11, and I draw into my other (Centaur Courser). If Villain has no tricks, then I have this game won on the board. Should I play around (Harm's Way) or (Divine Verdict) here?

R2G2 #4

This is one of those spots where I don’t think it matters much. I have a (Sesismic Strike) and another 3/3. If I swing in and lose the (Master of the Wild Hunt) or the (Mold Adder), well, so what? I should still win on the following attack, so I don’t think it matters. Play it safe and hold back the (Master of the Wild Hunt), or go for the win now, either way, this game is well in hand.

Villain agrees, conceding before I even attack, perhaps after doing some math and seeing that I had 15 on the table.

R3G1

Here is the partial decklist for my finals opponent based on scouting games. The mana base is a guess

Finals Opponent Partial Decklist

Known cards from scouting replays

Creatures 2 Soul Warden 2 Veteran Swordsmith 1 Bramble Creeper 1 Borderland Ranger 1 Razorfoot Griffin 1 Blinding mage 1 Rhox Pikemaster 1 Awakener Druid 1 Birds of Paradise 1 Giant Spider 1 Stormfront Pegasus 13 cards Other Spells 1 Holy Strength 1 Armored Ascension 1 Naturalize 1 Howl of the Night Pack 1 Glorious Charge 5 ??? 5 cards

Lands 9 Plains 8 Forest 17 cards

 

I lose the roll and decide on my seven after Villain keeps.

A good keeper against anyone, but an excellent keeper against an opponent with only three known creatures that, without help from an aura, can survive a double (Prodigal Pyromancer), and none that can survive a (Lightning Bolt) and a (Prodigal Pyromancer).

Villain goes (Soul Warden), (Blinding Mage), (Soul Warden), and I’m licking my chops despite being in a slight tempo hole when I start my action with a turn-three pyromancer. I untap, draw a Forest, and figure out optimal timing for my turn.

R3G1 #1

Playing out the second pyromancer is fairly obvious, but remembering to take out a (Soul Warden) with my active pyromancer is the kind of detail that can slip by with a “do things at the last minute” mentality. Speaking of when to do things, the other question for the turn is: do I hit the (Rhox Pikemaster) with the (Lightning Bolt), and if so, when?

Normally, I would just take out the pikemaster now, while Villain is tapped out and before I have to consider (Harm's Way) in the equation. In this case, though, I've seen 17 or 18 of Villain's spells (depending on whether (Naturalize) was main deck or sideboard), and none of them were (Harm's Way), but two of them were auras that pump toughness. I'm going to take out the (Rhox Pikemaster), but I'm going to wait until it's attacking me, giving Villain one extra main phase to play (Holy Strength) or (Armored Ascension) for the 2:1 bolt in response.

I don't get the 2:1 offer, and take out the pikemaster with a mid-combat bolt. Villain follows with a (Razorfoot Griffin), clearly trying to race me, or sandbagging an (Armored Ascension). I pull a (Seismic Assault) off the top. What's the plan for the turn?

R3G1 #2

Despite being down 28-12, I feel like the only way I'll lose this game to known cards at this point is if villain sticks pocket rockets ((Armored Ascension)) on something I can't burn, or resolves (Howl of the Night Pack) after drawing more Forests. With (Seismic Strike) and a fifth Mountain now in hand, though, even a third Plains and the pocket rockets wouldn't put any of his creatures out of burn range, so it's safe to make the more-aggressive play and cast the (Canyon Minotaur). I also take out the (Razorfoot Griffin) on my turn with the double ping since I'm not holding castable removal this time.

Villain untaps and plays (Elvish Visionary) and (Pacifism) on the (Canyon Minotaur), showing me two of the five unknown cards in his deck before dropping me to 10 on the attack. I untap and draw (Borderland Ranger). What should I do, and in what order?

R3G1 #3

The best opposing creature is the (Blinding Mage), but I can take out the most power by hitting the (Soul Warden) and the (Elvish Visionary). It's a fairly close call, and if one choice is truly better than the other, it's not a big difference, but I go for the power play, taking out the two 1/1s before dropping the (Borderland Ranger) and (Fiery Hellhound).

Villain adds a land and passes the turn, and I draw into (Regenerate). I double ping the (Blinding Mage), and my firebreather is turned sideways in response. Even a Forest and a (Howl of the Night Pack) isn't an out now, and short of a (Planar Cleansing) or a huge green creature, the game feels in the bag despite being behind 30-10 in the life column.

Villain finds a (Borderland Ranger) of his own, but I trump that draw with (Master of the Wild Hunt), and after taking out the ranger with the pingers, I swing for 7 and drop the huntmaster. Villain has no play, I draw (Lightning Bolt), hit for 11, and pass, earning a concession after the draw step.

R3G2

I pull the (Regenerate) for (Kindled Fury), another fairly narrow card that has some surprise value, but is a little better in combat than (Regenerate), which is where I'm likely to use it in the (mana=g)(mana=w) matchup. On the draw again, I check my seven:

Looks good. Despite containing some low-end and generic cards, even one (Prodigal Pyromancer) is a problem for this opponent. The game starts a lot like the last one: Villain curves out with (Llanowar Elves) (another unseen card), (Elvish Visionary), and (Veteran Swordsmith) while my first play is a turn-three pyromancer. I'm attacked down to 12 and staring at a wall of creatures before I even have my pyromancer online. How do I best reverse the tide, here?

R3G2 #1

The straight play is the (Canyon Minotaur), pass. The trickier angle is to set Villain up for a (Kindled Fury) ambush. If I just play the minotaur, it will likely end up tapped down by the (Blinding Mage), and I'll have to take another 4 damage after taking out one of the elves. If I hold back for the (Kindled Fury) play and Villain swings with everything, I'll take out an elf plus the (Blinding Mage) or the (Veteran Swordsmith), then I'll have my choice of five drops for turn five. Will the trick work, though? Can I really expect my opponent to walk into four untapped lands and six cards? What if Villain has a trick as well?

I decide setting up for the trick is too risky at this point, and is too much of a waste of mana, so I play the minotaur. It's too bad I don't have a (Centaur Courser), where I could play a 3/3 and set up for (Kindled Fury).

After untap but before the draw step, I ping the (Llanowar Elves). Villain plays a Mountain and casts (Stormfront Pegasus), immediately protecting it from the pyromancer with (Holy Strength). Despite the 20-12 life lead, Villain does not tap my blocker and swing, instead leaving me at 12 life and passing the turn. This is a huge amount of breathing room I've just received to try and play my way out of this. I pull a (Lightning Bolt) on my draw, and suddenly I'm swimming in options. What's your angle for the turn?

R3G2 #2

One option is to cast (Acidic Slime) targeting the (Holy Strength), then ping the (Stormfront Pegasus). This was almost the one I made, but then paranoia crept in. The Mountain concerned me; I'd seen no mountains in my scouting, suggesting that this sudden red was a sideboard switch in response to the two (Prodigal Pyromancer)s that took over game one. I decided saving the (Acidic Slime) to take out the splash land would pay dividends down the road, and so I set up the (Kindled Fury) trick by bolting the (Stormfront Pegasus) and passing.

I really dislike this play, now. I was being overly-paranoid about the Mountain. I had visions of Villain splashing for a (Fireball) or (Earthquake), but really, if those cards were available, they would likely have been in the deck all along, and I would have seen a Mountain in the scouting. More likely, the Mountain is for splashing that (Lightning Bolt) I passed, and if so, the bolt can be played in response to sliming the Mountain anyway if it happens to be in hand. If I simply take out the (Holy Strength) and ping the flyer, I'll have the bolt leftover for a (Bramble Keeper)/bolt the (Blinding Mage) on turn six.

Well, definitely the suboptimal play, but hopefully I can make the (Kindled Fury) trick work. The minotaur is tapped before combat, and I pass the turn. Villain plays a Forest and swings with everything. I'm going to make the pyromancer a 2/1 first striker and ping the (Elvish Visionary) after blockers, but which creature should the pyromancer block?

R3G2 #2

The (Blinding Mage) is the real problem, here. WIth the tapper out of the picture, I will probably end up trading the (Acidic Slime) for the (Veteran Swordsmith), which will then leave the (Bramble Creeper) open to swing for 5 each turn. The plan goes off without a hitch (except for the part where it shouldn't have been the plan to begin with). Villain has no other action and only the swordsmith in play as I untap for my turn. I pull more land and cast the slime, taking out he Mountain.

Villain rips and casts a second (Blinding Mage), much to my annoyance, and declines to attack, suggesting an unwillingness to trade the swordsmith with the slime now that another tapper it in the ranks. I find an interesting counter-rip on my turn in (Pyroclasm), and have more scheming ahead. What's the plan now? Any plays precombat? What creatures, if any, are attacking? What is the plan postcombat, and how do Villain's possible blocks affect it?

R3G2 #3

One option is to (Pyroclasm) before combat (pinging to the dome first), swing with the only survivor in the minotaur, and then cast the (Bramble Creeper), putting 8 points of attacking power on the table with Villain dropped to 13 and likely out of gas. If no precombat (Pyroclasm), then what about combat? Swing with both the minotaur and the slime? Just the slime? There are a lot of ways to go here. In hindsight, I am leaning towards just blowing up everything but the minotaur, casting the creeper and forcing Villain to answer in two turns or die.

In the actual game, I was reticent to give Villain another 3:2, including taking out the match MVP, (Prodigal Pyromancer). I decide to swing in with the minotaur and the slime and offer trades. This puts the (Canyon Minotaur) at unnecessary risk, since the minotaur is the only creature I have in play that survive (Pyroclasm) and has three power, I really don't want to lose him. Thankfully, Villain decides to trade with the slime, and postcombat I'm definitely playing the creeper, but am I trading the (Pyroclasm) and the (Prodigal Pyromancer) for the (Blinding Mage)?

I can still create my 8 points of attackers scenario, but I again find myself unable to give Villain the 2:1 and pass the turn after playing the creeper, hoping to catch more creatures in the (Pyroclasm) to come. Is this a good card causing me to play badly? Maybe, but I'd still rather try to learn to play it well instead of just avoiding drafting it. All told, I should have cut my pyromancer loose and accepted the wrong end of a 3:2 (precombat) or a 2:1 (postcombat) in the name of a much faster clock. I'll still get in a solid 4 a turn with an unchanged board, but for the math challenged following along at home: 8 > 4.

Villain has no play, and I rip a (Lightning Bolt) to look like a genius. I'm thinking the (Bramble Creeper) will be distracted by shiny objects this turn, but the (Blinding Mage) is destined to be struck by lighting before he'll have another chance to mess with my creeper. Villain makes the classic online oops, and clicks through the beginning of combat, and both the minotaur and the creeper charge in on the attack. Now what?

R3G2 #4

With the life totals standing at 9-5, the play is just to ping twice and bolt to the dome before my next draw step and win. With burn decks, it's easy to get caught up in board control and miss a win to the face. One time in Lorwyn-Morningtide drafting, a game had gone into this intense creature stalemate for many turns, and I was trying to draw something to break it. I pull a (Tarfire) and go into the tank, trying to figure out the right creature to remove to make a key hole in Villain's defense. After about 45 seconds of thought (an eternity in Magic Online wait time), I look at his life total and it's 2. I spend the next ten seconds composing a sincere apology for the inadvertent slow roll, and chat it as I cast (Tarfire) to the head for the win.

Life totals: kind of a big deal, it turns out.

Red is very underdrafted in M10, and its unpopular for good reason—red's best cards are splashable, and it is the shallowest in terms of good commons. If you find yourself the only heavy red drafter, though, it can really pay off.