Waiting for Godot: M10 #3 – The Games

R1G1

Checking my 7 on the play:

That’s looking like a starting hand for a monored deck, but a good one, so I keep, even though drawing (Acidic Slime) or (Master of the Wild Hunt) would be unfortunate.

Villain shows green/blue with an Island, a Forest, and a turn-two (Sage Owl). I pull (Sparkmage Apprentice) and (Pyroclasm), and my first real decision is what to do on turn three: the apprentice, the (Fiery Hellhound), or pass with (Seismic Strike) mana up:

R1G1 #1

I’m not concerned about the (Sage Owl), and don’t want to use the apprentice on it at this point. The hellhound dies to my eventual (Pyroclasm), so I could sit back on the removal mana and hope Villain commits more one- and two-toughness creatures to the board. I don’t want to telegraph my sweeper with suspicious inaction, though, and the hellhound is a creature I can send out there early to do some damage or make a nice trade before becoming expendable—a (Goblin Deathraiders) for heavy-red M10, if you will. I run out the firebreather with aggressive intentions. Hopefully, while I’m converting mana into damage without actually committing more creatures to the board, Villain will play creatures to set me up for an advantageous (Pyroclasm).

Villain swings for a point in the air, then drops a Pyroclasm-proof (Horned Turtle). Without 2 power, though, the turtle won’t be able to block the hellhound, so after drawing (Terramorphic Expanse), I get in for 5 damage on the maximum hellhound pump. Villain untaps, plays a fourth land, hits me again with the owl, then taps out for a (Giant Spider). I sacrifice my (Terramorphic Expanse) in response, but am I fetching a Forest or a Mountain?

R1G1 #2

Villain is not cooperating on my “devastating (Pyroclasm)” plan, so I have to ask myself whether it’s more important to be able to cast any single-green spell I might draw, or to maximize the power of my two (Seismic Strike)s and the hellhound. I opt for the Mountain, as then any land draw allows me to take out the spider and make it through for 4 damage unless Villain is ready to chump the hellhound.

I do rip a Mountain, strike the (Giant Spider), and hit for four. Note that Villain did not attack with the (Horned Turtle), but didn’t block with it either. This is a fairly common leak: not attacking—particularly with defensive creatures like the turtle—when you don’t intend to block with them on your opponent’s turn. Protecting against haste creatures like (Lighting Elemental) is a potentially legitimate reason for holding back, but not at double-digit life totals. It only cost Villain a point of damage, but that point will be the difference between winning and losing sometimes.

I pass the turn, and Villain enchants my hellhound with (Ice Cage) before swinging for two and casting a (Gorgon Flail). I pull a (Goblin Piker) and plan the turn. What’s the play?

R1G1 #3

Who says red can’t deal with enchantments? I cast (Sparkmage Apprentice) targeting the (Fiery Hellhound), knocking off the (Ice Cage) in a flavorful clash of fire and ice. Wounded but not dead, the hellhound continues the assault, making it a 16-6 game after a full pump.

Villain plays a sixth land, equips the (Gorgon Flail) to the (Horned Turtle), swings with the owl, and drops a (Snapping Drake) post combat. I pull a sixth Mountain, and assess my options. What’s your play?

R1G1 #4

I could take out the turtle with the (Seismic Strike) and (Pyroclasm) away all the creatures, but clearing the board is not what I want to do with (Capricious Efreet) in hand. (Capricious Efreet) with a populated board is a true bomb; on an empty board, its basically unplayable. If I play the efreet now, my odds of a win are extremely high. If Villain has nothing, at worst I’ll lose my (Sparkmage Apprentice) and then have the seismic/pyro play for to clear the path for the efreet to do the final 6 anyway. If I can hit my 67% next upkeep, the game is all but mine even if Villain has a relevant play.

Villain has a pretty relevant play, dropping an Island and tapping out to add (Sphinx Ambassador) to the battlefield before attacking with the (Snapping Drake), dropping me to 12. The efreet’s ability goes on the stack, and I target the apprentice, the sphinx, and the turtle for a 67% chance at the win right now.

R1G1 #5

I watch the graveyards closely while waiting for priority to pass, and happily see the (Horned Turtle) appear. Villain concedes to the (Seismic Strike) on the (Sphinx Ambassador), and I don’t have to show the (Pyroclasm). Now that you can view the replays of all the games in your draft as soon as they finish (more on that later), protecting information can pay dividends through multiple rounds.

The (Fiery Hellhound) played extremely well against green/blue’s general lack of instant-speed removal, so I bring in the second hellhound in for the (Goblin Piker), who is quickly outclassed by green’s common creatures.

R1G2

On the play, do you keep or ship these seven?

This hand concerns me, and when seven-card hands concern me, I usually just ship them, but it definitely has some things going for it. The great news is, any land in my first three draws gets me a turn-three (Goblin Artillery), who is always a game-changer when resolved early and not dealt with. Combined with the (Rod of Ruin), there aren’t many opposing creatures that will survive the pair. The rod is slow, though, and without a Forest in the first five draws, this will feel an awful lot like a mulligan to five. Two Mountains, a (Goblin Artillery), a (Canyon Minotaur) and a (Rod of Ruin) are a pretty solid mull to five, though, so I keep.

I find a Forest and a (Lightning Bolt) in my first two draws, and I see a turn-two (Sage Owl) across the way once again. After hitting me for 1 with the owl, Villain casts a (Centaur Courser). Is the vanilla 3/3 worth a (Lightning Bolt) when I have (Rod of Ruin) and (Goblin Artillery) in hand?

R1G2 #1

I think it is. If I intend to take it down with the artillery/rod combo, the courser is going to get in for 6 while I spend two turns getting it online, and then the artillery is going to do three more while I kill it. If I can get my control elements into place with a high life total, I should win this game, and using the bolt now supports that plan. I burn out the centaur, untap, draw a second Forest, and play out the (Goblin Artillery). Villain hits me in the air again, plays a fourth land, casts a second (Sage Owl), then passes with an Island and a Forest up.

I pull my second land, and have to choose between the (Rod of Ruin) and the (Canyon Minotaur).

R1G2 #2

I was already thinking (Rod of Ruin) to play the control role, and the strong possibility of (Essence Scatter) cements the decision. (Negate) is certainly possible, but (Essence Scatter) is definitely more played than (Negate). I bring down my second source of repeatable direct damage and pass the turn.

Shortly after, I’m facing an attack from a couple of owls. I will have the rod to take them out with no pain to me coming up, but is it worth taking three to take one out now?

R1G2 #3

I should take three to kill one of them if not doing so will result in three or more damage. If I spend my next two turns ruining owls, neither will get in three damage. I also have the (Lightning Bolt) available during that process, so I let the damage through. Strangely, Villain casts an (Illusionary Servant). He may have thought that, with nothing else to do facing a board full of targeted abilities, he was turning his (Illusionary Servant) into a (Lava Spike) when I take it out with the artillery. However, the servant is sacrificed in response to being targeted, and the damage from the (Goblin Artillery), including the 3 to me, fizzle with the target now gone.

I draw a fifth Mountain, play it, and decide between sticking to plan and using the rod, or doing the (Bramble Creeper) audible. Then I have to decide whether I’m attacking with the (Goblin Artillery) or leaving him up on sniper duty. What’s the plan for the turn?

R1G2 #4 

I opt to ping one of the owls and leave bolt mana up, but I think that was me making the wrong play in the moment in order to prevent owl damage and feel “correct” about my previous decision to not use the (Goblin Artillery) on an owl. If I could do this again, I would go ahead and play out the (Bramble Creeper), take a couple more hits from the owls, and set up for the (Borderland Ranger)/(Rod of Ruin) play on turn six. I swing in for one with the (Goblin Artillery), looking for some pain-free damage.

Villain spends turn six enchanting my (Goblin Artillery) with (Entangling Vines), and he’s down to his last owl as I untap for my sixth turn. By the same logic that has me thinking I should have cast the (Bramble Creeper) last turn, I should cast it this urn over the (Borderland Ranger)/(Rod of Ruin) play. I realize the right play this time, and play out the creeper over taking out the owl.

Villain (Ponder)s, chooses not to shuffle, makes his fifth land drop, and passes. This is a little odd, given that his three cards are certainly spells. I pull a (Centaur Courser) off the top and warily assess my turn.

R1G2 #5

I can’t think of many threatening instants in this spot, at least, none that change my decisions. I ping the (Sage Owl) to feel for a (Giant Growth), and when none materializes, I swing in with the (Bramble Creeper), which hits for five. I can simply play out the (Centaur Courser), or I can play the (Borderland Ranger), fetch a Mountain to have (Lightning Bolt) mana up, and set up a seven-mana turn next, where I can pair the (Canyon Minotaur) with either the (Centaur Courser) or (Rod of Ruin). The ranger play creates a whole lot of options and flexibility for the small cost of playing a 2/2 instead of a 3/3, but I play out the centaur to maximize my on-board power. It’s a small decision, but I like the ranger play in retrospect. In particular, having the (Lightning Bolt) ready for Villain’s turn would be great.

Villain untaps and casts a (Cudgel Troll) with regeneration mana up. Remember when regeneration wasn’t that great because so much removal had “no regeneration” clauses? (Terror) and (Incinterate), I’d like you to meet (Doom Blade) and (Lightning Bolt). (Cudgel Troll) with green mana up is a house against decks without evasion in this format in a way it simply would not have been in Tenth Edition. I pull a Mountain on my draw, and plot the turn.

R1G2 #6

Villain will have no choice but to block an attack, and I have no choice but to expend two cards to take out the troll. I swing in with both, and after the troll blocks and regenerates to destroy the (Bramble Creeper), I hit the troll with (Lightning Bolt) to finish it off. Then, in the slightly more flexible play, I cast the (Borderland Ranger) and leave rod mana up over casting the 3/3 (Canyon Minotaur). Villain taps out for a (Stampeding Rhino), I ping for one at end of turn, and find more land on top. Am I attacking with zero, one, or both creatures here?

R1G2 #7

If I attack with both and Villain blocks the 2/2, I get him to 7, effectively 6 with the rod, but lose a creature. If I just attack with the centaur, I’m essentially offering a trade. After that, I’ll have a 2/2, a 3/3, and a (Rod of Ruin) to face whatever three spells Villain has. I like that scenario better, so I send in the 3/3 and offer the trade., Villain declines, which is either great for me, or terrible for me because he knows something I don’t. Villain makes a (Llanowar Elves) and passes, and I take out the elves to prevent chump blocking.

I draw my other (Centaur Courser), and that basically seals the game. Villain even has the (Regenerate) to save the rhino when I attack in with everything, but still takes 5 on the attack, going to 2 and facing an unwinnable spot. I drop my replacement (Hill Giant), and Villain untaps and concedes.

R2G1

I win the roll and assess my seven on the play:

Removal and a sweeper, but zero creatures and a big potential for flood. Keep? Ship?

Wait! There’s information you should know before deciding.

Scouting Round Two

Scouting between rounds is something I should have covered by now, but better late than never, right? In the event tab of your draft, you can double-click on a matchup and bring up a sub window of the completed games in that match. Double-clicking on those games starts a replay, allowing you to watch every completed match in your event. Not everyone uses these replays, although anyone trying to use every means available to win should be. I actually wish replays weren’t available until the end of the tournament, because as a Spike looking to maximize my chance of winning, I now feel compelled to spend my time between rounds watching replays and taking screen captures instead of getting a snack or surfing youtube.

I bring up every replay I can, and use the “skip turn” button to cruise to the end of the replay, where I take a screen capture. Then, when I establish who my round-two or round-three opponent is, I go back and review their deck contents. Warning: if you spam the “skip turn” button, you are likely to make Magic Online crash, and I have yet to find a way to bring up the event tab again after such a crash. So, if you spam "skip turn,” you will cost yourself the ability to see replays for the remainder of the event.

In any case, here are the screen shots I had for my round-two opponent:

With that information at the ready, let’s take another look at that mulligan decision…

R2G1

I win the roll and assess my seven on the play:

Removal and a sweeper, but zero creatures and a big potential for flood. Keep? Ship? What if this were R1G1? Do the opponent replays change the decision?

Discuss in the comments and we’ll pick this match up next week…