Waiting for Godot – It’s a Small Worldwake After All

First, an apology. Barring the holidays, I’ve done my best to maintain a weekly column for puremtgo.com, but the juggle of life is a tough act, and you know what they say: when the juggling gets tough, the tough let their Magic-column ball hit the dirt. Or something like that. I’m paraphrasing. At any rate, I’ll continue to write articles as regularly as I can, but I need to be realistic about it, too. If you check the site on a given week and don’t see a new Waiting for Godot, you can figure the juggling has gotten tough again. I apologize in advance, but at least, unlike my namesake Beckett character, I do actually show up sometimes.

But enough about that. I was debating my options for this column, and I even started an Alara “block booster” draft walkthrough, but my heart just wasn’t in it (the draft or the walkthrough, really). Let’s face it: it’s awfully hard to be excited about doing a triple-Zen or Alara-anything walkthrough when the Worldwake spoilers have begun to flow, so why fight it? Let’s take a look at some of the officially-spoiled Worldwake commons with an eye toward their impact on Zendikar drafting.

First though, I want to touch on a couple of considerations for evaluating small-set commons and uncommons entering a triple-large-set Limited environment.

It’s a Small, Small Worldwake

Rarity in Magic is a funny thing. On the simple surface, there are four rarities in Magic as of the Shards of Alara expansion, up from three previously: mythic, rare, uncommon, and common. In actuality, it’s more complicated than that. For Limited purposes, the rarity of any given card in any given expansion is best described as the percent chance that it will be in a pack. This is a number that can fluctuate from set to set for each traditional rarity designation. 

Zendikar, for example, has 229 unique non-basic-land cards: 15 mythic, 53 rare, 60 uncommon, 101 common. With ten non-basic commons in a pack (ignoring the possibility foils), there is a 9.9% chance (10 in 101) of any given common being in a Zendikar pack you open. Worldwake, meanwhile—assuming it follows in the footsteps of the other 145-card expansions of the Mythic Era—will have 10 mythic rares, 35 rares, 40 uncommons, 60 commons. That means any given Worldwake common has a 16.7% chance (10 in 60) of being in a Worldwake pack you open. Meanwhile, finding a given uncommon in a Worldwake pack will be a 7.5% shot (3 in 40), up 50% from Zendikar’s 5% chance (3 in 60).

This is a very significant difference when anticipating what commons and uncommons you can reasonably expect to see in that third pack. With individual commons appearing almost 70% more often in Worldwake than in Zendikar, each Worldwake common, in effect, is working nearly double duty to replace the commons from the third Zendikar pack in your draft decks. This understanding leads nicely into another important consideration for small-set impact, and one that will be the focus of my initial look at Worldwake Limited.

Throwing Analogs on the Fire

When you participate in a large-expansion Limited environment for the first time, you are learning an entirely new world. You can apply some basic card evaluation techniques and your historical understanding of Limited to the new cards (removal is good, big evasive guys win games), but, because the folks at Wizards of the Coast R&D are really good at their jobs, there are inevitably things about a new Limited environment as a whole that you aren’t going to fully understand and appreciate until you’ve played it.

On the other hand, when small sets are introduced into a triple-large-set environment, regular drafters have a foundation of experience from which to evaluate the incoming cards. One third of the old familiar cards in your draft decks are about to be replaced with something new, but two thirds are going to be what you’ve already been drafting for months. Accordingly, one of the first things I do with new commons and uncommons from a small expansion is to look for “analogs” to large-set cards.

An analog is a card that fills a similar cost and function to an existing card. Identifying analogs to large-set cards in an incoming small set and assessing how their differences will impact established draft archetypes is a great starting point for evaluating a new small set for Limited. What archetypes are going to maintain their critical mass of parts through analogs? How do those analogs strengthen or weaken those archetypes? Which archetypes are missing key analogs entirely? We won’t be able to answer these questions completely until all 145 Worldwake cards are known and we’ve taken some of them into battle a few times, but there are always clues to be found in the analogs among the early spoilers.

Don’t I Know You from Somewhere?

Worldwake contains two common black cards that effectively demonstrate both the analog principle and the impact “true rarity” has on the comparison of analogs, so I’ll start there.

Pulse Tracker

Pulse Tracker is your pack-three analog for the common one-drop vampires of Zendikar. Like (Vampire Lacerator), the Pulse Tracker can come down on turn one and hit your opponent for 2 life a turn until contained. Like the (Guul Draz Vampire), the Pulse Tracker sports a 1/1 body that becomes outclassed quickly in combat. While the Pulse Tracker doesn’t suffer the lacerator’s drawback of pinging you each upkeep until you’ve “bloodied” your opponent, its inability to trade with X/2s or survive encounters with 1/Xs is a significant downgrade from the suicidal (Vampire Lacerator).

As for the comparison to (Guul Draz Vampire), Pulse Tracker looks much better in the early game, and much worse in the late game. The real strength of the (Guul Draz Vampire) is that it ends games quickly against non-black opponents once you bloody them up. Given that, Pulse Tracker is more of a direct analog to (Vampire Lacerator). In that role, I think it will perform fine for the hyper-aggro monoblack and black-x archetypes that have been so successful in triple Zendikar drafting. Dropping three 1cc vampires in the first two turns with a removal spell for turn three is still going to be great with Pulse Tracker in there.

Because there will be approximately 1.7 times as many Pulse Trackers in pack three as there will be (Vampire Lacerator)s or (Guul Draz Vampire)s in each of packs one and two, the Pulse Tracker will serve analog duty for both of Zendikar’s one-drop vampires.

Hot Tech Aside: Note that the triggered ability of the Pulse Tracker resolves before blockers are declared, so if you have your opponent at 12 with two Pulse Trackers and two Guul Draz Vampires in play, you can attack with everything and have two 3/2 intimidates before blockers are declared. The Pulse Trackers may be on a suicide mission, but the GDVs should mop up from there.

Ruthless Cullblade

Ruthless Cullblade is the other black common doing double-duty analog work in Worldwake for (Surrakar Marauder) and (Blood Seeker). You could argue that the cullblade’s “Bloodied” ability actually makes it more analogous to the (Guul Draz Vampire) than either of these black two drops, but the lack of intimidate makes me shy away from that comparison. In this case, the relevant analog consideration is that it is a vampire for (mana=1)(mana=b) with 2 power, which has it straddling the line between (Blood Seeker) and (Surrakar Marauder). The Cullblade is a little better than (Blood Seeker) and a lot worse than (Surrakar Marauder), making this an overall downgrade for aggressive black decks. 

We’ll see what other common black creatures emerge from Worldwake, but the first two out of the gate feel like an overall downgrade to the aggro black strategies, mainly due to the power drop from (Surrakar Marauder) to Ruthless Cullblade. What analogs, if any, will be in Worldwake for other key contributors like (Crypt Ripper), (Giant Scorpion) and (Nimana Sell-Sword)? We’ll know pretty soon, here.

 

Kitesail Apprentice

While the Kitesail Apprentice ability is far more analogous to the Kor Duelist, the duelist is uncommon, and was never really an impact player in aggressive white strategies to begin with. The closest analog here is to (Steppe Lynx) because they are both common white one-drop creatures. The apprentice is a significant drop in quality from (Steppe Lynx), and could seriously impact the power of aggro-white in ZZW drafting. 

A turn-one (Steppe Lynx) is a groan-inducing play that puts the opposition on immediate notice, likely converting one mana into 6 or more damage before becoming outclassed on the battlefield. Kitesail Apprentice meanwhile has the same problem as (Kor Duelist), which is that you generally don’t even want to play the amount of equipment you’d have to for the ability to be reliably relevant, leading to a card that stinks most of the time while occasionally being great—not what we are looking for in our Limited staples.

Again, without the full set revealed, we can’t know for sure what the true impact of losing a pack of (Steppe Lynx)es will be. Perhaps there is a yet-to-be-revealed common white one drop that can deal 2 damage a turn, and Kitesail Apprentice is more accurately an analog for (Cavern Herda) and (Noble Vestige) (i.e., a common white creature you don’t generally play unless desperate). Until then, I see Kitesail Apprentice as troubling downgrade from (Steppe Lynx) for white ZZW mages.

Vastwood Zendikon

Vastwood Zendikon and its “animate land” effect may be mechanically different from (Territorial Baloth) and (Vastwood Gorger), but ultimately it serves the same roll: high-curve, big green beater. Technically a five drop, Vastwood Zendikon (and all the common man-land makers) function more ideally for an additional mana, where you are creating a man-land with haste. 

I like Vastwood Zendikon more than the (Vastwood Gorger) but less than the (Territorial Baloth). The baloth’s ability to become a 6/6 instead of a 6/4 is not insignificant, not to mention the (Harrow) tricks that can turn an unblocked (Territorial Baloth) into a blowout. I slightly prefer an extra point of power and haste over Vastwood Gorger’s vanilla 5/6 frame, although at least the gorger stops asking for mana after the initial investment, while the man-land aura basically has an upkeep of (mana=1) should you want to attack with it every turn.

All in all, I’d call Vastwood Zendikon a slight downgrade from the (Territorial Baloth)/(Vastwood Gorger) duo, but not an incredibly relevant one. Either your non-evasive green fatty is going to get through for some serious harm or it isn’t, and at that point it doesn’t matter too much whether it’s a (Craw Wurm)-sized man-land or a some other slice of beef.

Halimar Excavator & Wind Zendikon

Not all analogs are as straightforward as comparing (Vampire Lacerator) to Pulse Tracker. In the case of these blue commons, there are several important Zendikar roles spread across a couple of new Worldwake commons, as well as a new twist, making for a more complex assessment of the impact these new blue cards will have on ZZW drafts.

(Halimar Excavator) is an upgrade to (Kraken Hatchling) in the role of early defense. While it can’t block (Plated Geopede) or (Nimana Sell-Sword) the way a (Kraken Hatchling) can, its ability to shut down attacks entirely from multiple 2/1s and 1/1s is a significant improvement, as is the ability to swing for 1 when the coast is clear. 

While Halimar Excavator may be a hatchling upgrade, it’s a clear downgrade from (Umara Raptor) as the common blue ally, mainly because it’s trying to win in a way that none of your other allies are. Producing frighteningly large (Umara Raptor)s has been a big reason for playing blue in triple-Zendikar, even with a light ally theme. The loss of a pack’s worth of (Umara Raptor)s could significantly impact my desire to play blue in ZZW, depending of course on the other blue Worldwake offerings to come.

On the other hand, thanks to Halimar Excavator, it seems there is now a more-viable mill deck to be drafted, teaming Halimar Excavator with multiple (Hedron Crab)s and as many (Ondu Cleric)s and (Makindi Shieldmate)s as you can snag, but it feels quite risky to prioritize Hedron Crabs, (Ondu Cleric)s and (Makindi Shieldmate)s in the first two packs on the assumption that you will find enough Halimar Excavators in pack three to make the strategy work. Still, it’s a deck to look out for.

Stepping in and attempting to make up for the loss of (Umara Raptor) and (Welkin Tern) is another in the man-land aura cycle, Wind Zendikon. This zendikon improves on (Welkin Tern) in terms of blocking and toughness, but the “upkeep” problem with zendikons is far more pronounced in (Wind Zendikon) than it is with Vastwood Zendikon. At least by the time you run the craw aura out there, you are probably at the top end of your curve, where using a land as an attacker each turn isn’t a major setback. It’s a hefty cost to your mana development to play Wind Zendikon on turn two, although as we have seen with (Kor Skyfisher), setting yourself back a turn on mana development can be worth it to enable early evasive beats.

In the late game, Wind Zendikon is clearly superior to (Welkin Tern), providing blue with rare haste—and evasive haste at that—as well as a creature that can actually play some defense if need be. With no other allies, I’d rather have one Wind Zendikon in my deck over one (Umara Raptor), but I’m awfully concerned about the way the zendikons suck up a land each turn (perhaps the white zendikon will have vigilance, which would be sweet). Even the “return” clause in case of death, while nice, still sets you back a turn on mana development.

I’m also assuming there will be one other solid blue flyer at common, given the pack-three loss of (Windrider Eel) and (Sky Ruin Drake) as well. If there is not a decent four- or five-mana common flyer in blue, the color will be quite crippled in ZZW.

Crusher Zendikon

Well, I may as well cover all the known zendikons (as of this writing), since they are all serving as interesting analogs to some common creatures in their colors. In the case of red, we have a blend of (Ruinous Minotaur) and (Shatterskull Giant) with a trample bonus. It technically costs 3 like the minotaur, but effectively 4 like the giant, and it’s lighter on the red requirement than both. It hits for the giant’s power and has the minotaur’s toughness. It doesn’t require a land sacrifice upon dealing damage to a player like the minotaur, but it does require the standard zendikon “land sacrifice” of an effective upkeep of (mana=1) to use it as an attacker instead of a mana producer. 

The trample is nice, but I would still rather have (Shatterskull Giant) pretty much every time because of the extra toughness. I’d rather have Crusher Zendikon over (Ruinous Minotaur) almost every time as well, so at least the red zendikon falls in somewhere between the two Zendikar commons. The difference between two and three toughness is dramatic in Zendikar, though, and the list of two-drop creatures that will happily trade with this zendikon is disturbingly long—too long for me to think of this card as a particularly high pick. That being said, if you are packing enough removal and (Goblin Shortcutter)s, it won’t take too many attacks for Crusher Zendikon to earn its keep.

It’s Not the End of the Worldwake

Well, this article is growing longer (and later) by the minute, so I’m going to cut myself off. That was a lot of words for only a few cards, but hopefully taking a look at analog theory helped frame an approach for looking at the other incoming Worldwake spoilers. Next time—hopefully much sooner—I’ll go over a larger quantity of Worldwake commons and uncommons, including hitting on some cards at the opposite end of the spectrum from the analogs I discussed today: the game-changers. What happens when you insert a pinger into Zendikar Limited, anyway?

Oliver the Green Giant

(For new readers: I occasionally give an update on the progress of my seven-year-old son Oliver’s experiences as an early Magic player.)

My oldest, dearest friend Chris lives down in Portland, and despite that being fairly close to my Seattle stomping grounds, it can feel like Siberia when it comes to actually getting together, as anyone with old friends “close by” understands. While my podcasting partner Marshall introduced me to Magic, I really cut my teeth on the game with Chris. In the summer of 1995, a year or so after playing a couple games with Marshall, I bought a shoebox of Magic cards at a garage sale. Chris and I sat down, split them between us, and slogged our way through the rulebook until we were thoroughly confused and even more thoroughly addicted.

We played together regularly for a couple years until Chris moved away from my influence and eventually fell out of the game, but we’ve continued to play a little sealed together here and there whenever he makes it to Seattle for a visit. Since I began writing Waiting for Godot, though, Chris has been reading, and my influence over him has re-established itself over the internet (Hey Chris!). He’s back in the game, playing frequent Winston drafts and sealed decks with friends in Portland.

Recently, Chris made it up to Seattle for the first time since Oliver learned to play, and the three of us had the opportunity to play sealed with some Lorwyn/Morningtide boosters I had around. I had Oliver sort his cards by color, and then told him to identify some cards he definitely wanted to play, at which point I’d help him make a deck of it.

“Dad, I want to play these,” he said, handing me a pretty pair of (Vigor)s he’d cracked.  

“Excellent choice, buddy,” I replied, “One (Vigor) is great, but two is just sick!” We looked through the rest of his pile and found plenty of support, including a (Primal Command) as a virtual third copy of Vigor, and three copies of (Leaf Gilder) to power out the (Vigor)s before going on the incarnation-enhanced offensive. White was the clear-but-light secondary color, and the triple gilders plus a (Fertile Ground) made (Vigor)’s (mana=g)(mana=g)(mana=g) reliable enough to splash black for his (Shriekmaw), which went perfectly with his other bomby rare, (Galepowder Mage).

Chris ended up with a solid green-red elemental/elf/shaman deck sporting (Imperious Perfect), (Taurean Mauler), (Rage Forger), and four other changelings to knit it all together, as well as two (Mulldrifter)s splashed off a (Smokebraider), a (Vivid Grove), a (Fertile Ground), and (Shimmering Grotto). I went hard into blue-white merfolk with double (Oblivion Ring), (Summon the School), (Judge of Currents), (Merfolk Reejery), (Silvergill Adept), (Silvergill Douser), (Streambed Aquitects), and a (Merrow Harbinger) to fetch up my merfolk of choice.

We didn’t have a ton of time and we spent much of it cracking packs, sorting cards, and tinkering with decks (aka, the fun part), so we played a quick round-robin of one game for each matchup. Oliver and his (Vigor)s proudly went 2-0, although it was the (Shriekmaw)/(Galepowder Mage) combo that ultimately devastated Chris. Meanwhile, I went 0-2 after a tight game against Chris that ended with a (Rage Forger)-enabled alpha strike taking me down.

Oliver and I have kept the decks intact, and are now using them league-style, adding in a pack to each pool every week and evolving the decks. Ollie ripped a second (Changeling Hero), a (Lignify) and an (Oblivion Ring) to make his deck that much stronger, while I only found a second (Streambed Aquitects) to augment my merfolk. I managed to take him in three despite this thanks to some blazing starts on my part and multiple mulligans on his. To his credit, Ollie took the losses like a champ despite some obvious frustration.

The Lorwyn experience has Ollie intrigued by Sealed, and when I told him about the upcoming Sealed events at the Worldwake prerelease, his eyes lit up like it was Christmas. “Can I go with you again and watch you play?” he asked excitedly. “Even better,” I replied. “Now that you know how to play yourself, I was thinking we could enter the Two-Headed Giant event together. What do you think?” Well, continuing the Christmas comparison, Oliver’s response was an explosive cocktail of disbelief, triumph, pride, joy, and living-room gymnastics that made the N-64 Kid look downright demure. I took that as an affirmative.

Hopefully, the Seattle Worldwake prerelease will be the start of a long tradition of Oliver and me taking on Magic prereleases as a double-headed duo. If you are in the area, come down to the Seattle Center for the 1:00 Two-Headed Giant event, and maybe you and your other head will square off against Team Spain as we all sling some Worldwake spells for the first time. To paraphrase Ollie parading excitedly around the house last night, “We will destroy you!”