Welcome back, and Happy New Year! I hope everyone had a delightful holiday season, or at the very least, a solid late December. I was able to sneak some drafting in during my time off, my time off, and Let’s jump right in with an 84 draft I entered during the break.
Pack 1 pick 1:
My Pick:
Opening a black bomb is bittersweet for me in Zendikar drafting at this point. My preference has shifted from black-red to white-red, white-blue, and even green-x decks over fighting for black with three (or more) other drafters, but when the Magic Gods hand you a P1P1 (Ob Nixilis, the Fallen), you strap on your wargear and go to battle for the best color in Zendikar.
As always, take a moment to assess what you are passing before you windmill-click that p1 bomb. I'm noting this is a fairly deep pack, with six other high-quality picks:
(Shepherd of the Lost)
(Kor Skyfisher)
(Baloth Woodcrasher)
(Bladetusk Boar)
(Nissa's Chosen)
(Nimana Sell-Sword)
From there the quality declines quickly, though, going to (Vastwood Gorger), then to (Narrow Escape), and then falling off a cliff. While I'm unlikely to wheel anything of relevance or be able to read any signals from pick nine, there are a couple of important things to note beyond a higher-than-average density of early-caliber picks.
First and foremost for me is the fact that none of the playables in this pack—much less the quality cards—are blue. It’s highly unlikely that I’ll end up with a monoblack deck, so I’m already thinking about my second color as it relates to what I’m passing, and blue is a strong consideration given that it is relatively underdrafted and that I’m not passing any.
Also, with shepherd and skyfisher both likely to go in the next three or four picks and me with a preference against black-white decks anyway because of the awkward mana, I will be staying far away from white. Red and green are still options—green despite passing the baloth because it remains an underdrafted color, and red because it’s deep and great with black—but my mindset out of this pack is that first and foremost I want to cut black, and that if blue seems to be flowing, it would make a good second color based on what I’m passing, here.
Pack 1 pick 2: 
My Pick:
Adhering to that philosophy, I take the best black card here.
Pack 1 pick 3: 
My Pick:
This is a perfect spot to test the blue waters. The black spells are both weaker than the eel, and there’s no other good blue I’m shipping, meaning in three packs I will have only sent one good blue card downstream, the (Welkin Tern) from pack two.
Pack 1 pick 4: 
My Pick:
It’s not out of the question here to veer into green for the (Oran-Rief Survivalist), here, but I’m not tempted by the (Spire Barrage) given that the second and third packs had literally no red cards in them. Maybe they just didn’t have red cards to begin with, but it seems likely that the player passing to me is in red. I play it safe and continue the black cut.
Pack 1 pick 5: 
My Pick:
This was a tough pick. I like the (Giant Scorpion), and it does the primary job of cutting black, but the (Windrider Eel) is strong, and its presence here is validating my decision to look for blue. At this point, cutting both black and blue have great value for pack two, so I take the stronger card, and one that, as it happens, laughs off the one I’m passing.
Pack 1 pick 6: 
My Pick:
The (Territorial Baloth) suggests that green would have also been a rewarding path to take for my second color, but I’m fine with the (Gomazoa). Pick six and the quality black appears to have dried up. Pretty standard. I’ll run (Vampire's Bite) if my pool dictates it, but I’m not picking it over (Gomazoa) here.
Pack 1 pick 7: 
My Pick:
Pretty ugly. The best cards in the pack are both red, but it’s more important to send the signal that I’m not in red than it is to cut them. I’m OK with (Hedron Scrabbler) in non-black decks facing multiple (Surrakar Marauder)s, but it will be a bad sign for me if it makes my deck. The other option, again for signaling, is to take the desperation-only (Tempest Owl) over the desperation-only (Hedron Scrabbler), but since I’m the guy who hopes to have the multiple marauders, I take the card that’s good against them.
Pack 1 pick 8: 
My Pick:
If I had an (Umara Raptor) and a (Nimana Sell-Sword) I would take the (Hagra Diabolist), and really, since (Blood Seeker) isn’t that great, I probably should have taken the diabolist on the chance that I pick up some black/blue allies in the other two packs. I’ve quit (Ior Ruin Expedition)s cold turkey.
Pack 1 pick 9:
My Pick:
Someone took the foil Island, leaving me to take the big beefy guy.
Pack 1 pick 10:
My Pick:
When I’m into pick ten and beyond, I consider any on-color playables I find to be a lovely gift.
Pack 1 pick 11:
My Pick:
I raredraft over taking a blue card I can’t see running in this deck.
Pack 1 pick 12:
My Pick:
I uncommondraft over taking the full-art Mountain. It was close.
Pack 1 pick 13:
My Pick:
Another gift by virtue of it being a playable 13th pick, but hardly exciting. Two full-art lands later, and the pack is finished.
Pack 2 pick 1: 
My Pick:
This was tough for me. Obviously (Crypt Ripper) can get out of hand and win games in heavy black, and it’s a fine inclusion in even half-black decks. Based on the flow of cards in pack one, though, I figured blue might end up being the dominant color in the deck, so I took the cheap drop in blue.
Pack 2 pick 2: 
My Pick:
A similar tough choice, I again side with the blue flyer over the black beater.
Pack 2 pick 3: 
My Pick:
This time the black card wins out over the two-powered flyer because it’s still early enough to find a light ally sub-theme, and because (Hill Giants) are solidI wouldn’t be surprised if the (Sky Ruin Drake) tabled.
Pack 2 pick 4: 
My Pick:
It was painful to leave a (Merfolk Seastalkers) on the table, but, bolstered by the allies taken in the previous two picks, I stayed on theme and took the flyer. This is one of those picks whose real value won’t be known until the draft is over. A couple more raptors and sell-swords from here and I’ll have no regrets. If the black had flowed a little better in pack one, I’d be happy with a (Crypt Ripper), (Vampire Lacerator), and a (Mind Sludge) out of pack two so far. It looks like blue is successfully cut, at least.
(Grappling Hook), seen by many as unplayable, can find a home in the right deck (I’m thinking big-mana green). This isn’t the one, though, as 4+4 is still too much to pay to give a flyer double strike.
Pack 2 pick 5: 
My Pick:
I rarely draft this guy, as a 3/3 unblockable for (mana=5) seems like a bad deal in the format. I often just wish it had flying, but it does represent non-flying evasion, which can be handy against flyer hate. I decide to try him over (Into the Roil) here since, with blue being pretty open, I can expect one or two more roils to come my way before the draft is over.
Pack 2 pick 6: 
My Pick:
Nearly blank for my deck, I take the (Vampire's Bite). Pretty decent when kicked on a 4/4 (Windrider Eel), we’ll see how I feel about it come deckbuilding.
Pack 2 pick 7: 
My Pick:
Some creature recursion is nice to have with (Ob Nixilis, the Fallen) and vulnerable flyers so I grab the (Soul Stair Expedition), but man it’s a brutally bad topdeck.
Pack 2 pick 8: 
My Pick:
Hardly the removal I’m looking for in a deck running Swamps, but you take what you can get. If I hit a load of black removal in pack three, maybe I won’t have to play it. I hate passing (Oran-Rief Recluse)s when I’m in blue…
Pack 2 pick 9:
My Pick:
Great, the (Into the Roil) wheeled, justifying passing one P2P5, and further verifying that the rest of the table seems mostly uninterested in blue.
Pack 2 pick 10:
My Pick:
It was almost the full-art Island, but I take the (Cancel) to be sure I have playables covered.
Pack 2 pick 11:
My Pick:
Makes splashing for a pack-three (Burst Lightning) not out of the question.
Pack 2 pick 12:
My Pick:
Another (Cancel)-over-basic pick, but I close out the draft with the full-art triple play:
So pretty…why someone would ever take a (Desecrated Earth) or a (Mire Blight) over one of these is beyond me.
Pack 3 pick 1: 
My Pick:
About as no-brainer as a P3P1 gets. It will make me play more Swamps than I might have otherwise, but he’s worth it.
Pack 3 pick 2: 
My Pick:
(Rite of Replication) is a lot of fun, and nice with a (Vampire Nighthawk) in the pile, but I opt to grab a (Crypt Ripper) while I can. Despite my playables being 75% blue at this point, I’m playing more Swamps for the nighthawk, so I’ll be able to feed the ripper adequately. I’m OK with the rites pick; it certainly has a higher upside on the “fun” scale than a (Crypt Ripper) does, and simply wins games if you resolve it kicked (as anything you spend nine mana on should). Beware, though: unlike (Clone), (Rite of Replication) needs a target, and if that target should disappear or become untargatable in response, you just spent four (or nine) mana on trick extraction.
Pack 3 pick 3: 
My Pick:
Pretty straightforward, and quite welcome, as I’m lower on one- and two-drops than I’d like to be early in pack three. Æther Figment and (Into the Roil) are not two-drops, I don’t care what it says in the upper right corner.
Pack 3 pick 4: 
My Pick:
I go for the 5cc flyer over the 5cc unblockable. (Sky Ruin Drake)’s ability to block well almost always comes in handy.
Pack 3 pick 5:
My Pick:
I deliberated for quite a bit between the second (Into the Roil) and the first (Bog Tatters), but I decided blue had given me plenty of evasive creatures, and that another trick was a better fit for the deck than an expensive creature with part-time evasion. I have passed an uncomfortable number of (Bog Tatters), though.
Pack 3 pick 6: 
My Pick:
Two blue cards I wouldn’t be thrilled to play, and two black cards I’m never going to play. (Summoner's Bane) is a card I like to start in the board, but if Villain shows some expensive creature bombs, I’ll bring it in.
Pack 3 pick 7:
My Pick:
Technically correct is the (Soul Stair Expedition), but a second is unlikely to make the cut, and this was shiny and rare. How can I pass up shiny and rare for a card I probably won’t run anyway?
Pack 3 pick 8: 
My Pick:
Harrow may be the better card in the abstract, but (Timbermaw Larva) is the card that could run all over me. That’s a fairly late (Tuktuk Grunts), too.
Pack 3 pick 9:
My Pick:
I’m not going to play this, but as I said, (Ior Ruin Expedition) and I are on a break, and the rest are unplayable. Unfortunately, the rest of pack three is a mix of hate drafts, uncommon drafts, and full-art basics.
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The Deck
That being said, the deck certainly has the potential to make the finals with a little luck and tight play. If I don’t have mana issues and draw more of my top end than my bottom end, I like my chances.
R1G1
I lose the roll and check my seven on the draw:
Five-land hands are never ideal—you are simply going to be more prone to losing to flood when you keep them. I can cast every spell in my deck with these five lands, and turn one is when you want to be dropping (Kraken Hatchling)s if your plan is to clog the ground and win the race through the air. That pus the (Into the Roil) should buy me enough time to set up. I keep and hope that Villain opens with a (Vampire Lacerator).
A Swamp but no play starts things off, and I pull, naturally, a land. The (Kraken Hatchling) comes down to play eventual D, but a second Swamp-go turn leaves the hatchling with nothing to do. I draw a seventh land, and Villain drops a Plains and produces a (Giant Scorpion). I draw (Windrider Eel) for turn three and still have nothing to do, but I’m heading into my action turns still on 20 life, so I can’t complain too much.
Villain hits for 1, plays a third Swamp and passes again. I draw (Welkin Tern) and drop the eel. To my slight surprise given Villain’s four untapped lands, the eel survives the turn. What I think may be a sign of no removal is clarified when Villain then casts and equips (Spidersilk Net) to the (Giant Scorpion). Why use removal on something that won’t be able to attack anyway? But seriously, (Spidersilk Net) in game one? No fair pre-boarding against me!
I pull (Guul Draz Vampire), drop a land, and plan the turn. What’s your play?
That scorpion/net combo is going to be a huge problem for me. (Into the Roil) only addresses it temporarily, but it also digs for an answer or an alternate win condition, so it’s the play here. I kick-bounce the scorpion, draw (Umara Raptor), swing for 4, and drop the vampire with the spare mana. I’m thinking about how to handle the net problem when Villain solves it by introducing an even bigger one: (Sorin Markov) comes down, and I long for the time when my Big Problem was a piece of equipment that I couldn’t attack through.
Sorin promptly drains the eel’s life, and I’m feeling fairly helpless against a planeswalker with a +2 removal ability. I pull my other (Into the Roil) and try to come up with a scenario where I actually win this game.
This is just rotten. I could play both creatures in some effort to keep Sorin below 7 loyalty, but Sorin would take care of one, and the scorpion with the net would stop the other. Meanwhile if I don’t play down creatures, (Into the Roil) on Sorin will only delay the inevitable, and eventually the constant barrage of (Vicious Hunger)s and (Syphon Soul)s will crush me. If the (Mindslaver) ability happens to be able to end the game sooner, that works too. It’s all pretty hopeless, but the narrow path out of this is to sit tight and try to draw help, using (Into the Roil) on Sorin before I untap for my next turn.
For some reason though, in the actual game I try for the bum rush, casting both the (Welkin Tern) and the (Umara Raptor). Usually I can find at least some defensible angle explaining a play I’ve made but now disagree with, but sometimes I’m left scratching my head. The only way this accomplishes anything other than poultry for dinner is if I use (Into the Roil) to clear the path instead of bouncing Sorin…but for what? To take Sorin from 7 to 5? That makes no sense.
Really, the only explanation I can come up with is that I stopped thinking too hard about things because I felt so sure I was going to lose. It’s like I’m just casting to cast. I constantly preach playing as though whatever needs to happen will happen for that tiny percent chance you have to win to come to pass, but failed to practice what I preach, here. My only real out is (Into the Roil) plus (Cancel), so I should have played like that was exactly what was going to happen.
Villain, presumably with a shrug and a chuckle, drops and equips the (Giant Scorpion) before Sorin unleashes his (vicious hunger) on the (Umara Raptor). What a surprise! Of course, I then untap and draw (Cancel). Now what?
If I had kept my head last turn and held back my creatures, Sorin would have drained the (Guul Draz Vampire) and I would have bounced the planeswalker before untapping, drawing (Cancel) in the process. I’d have the next card down in my library in hand, as well as the two flyers, and a (Cancel). Villain would have no idea the (Cancel) was coming and would likely play Sorin right into it. So, yeah, play for that small percent chance of coming back in a tight spot, OK? I could have started to turn this game around with the correct play, and instead I remain in a rough spot.
I can cast an unkicked (Into the Roil) on Sorin and save (Cancel) for him, but that play is heavily telegraphed. However, if Villain wants to play around the obvious (Cancel), that still keeps Sorin off the table, which is job one. With seven land, I can cast almost anything I draw while keeping (Cancel) mana up.
Alternately, I could attack with both creatures to keep Sorin off of ultimate, lose one to the scorpion and the other to Sorin on the next activation, but the benefit is that I can kick the roil at Villain’s End Step, and the (Cancel) will stay disguised. Because the telegraphed play still keeps Sorin off the table, though, I cast the unkicked roil targeting Sorin before passing the turn.
Villain does indeed play around the (Cancel) with a (maindeck) (Bog Tatters). I swear this is game one! I have 19 life and only slightly more outs to a tatters than I do a planeswalker, but I let it resolve. I draw an Island, and at 8 land I can now cast any spell in my deck and still have (Cancel) mana up. Now I just need to, you know, draw useful spells. Villain hits me for 4 and passes, content to play around the (Cancel) and beat down with the swampwalker.
The turn cycle repeats itself: I draw land, take 4, and Villain has no other play. At 11, I find a spell on top in (Nimana Sell-Sword). Hardly game-saving, but not a land, at least. The tatters drops me to 7 before Villain finally runs out Sorin, and I confirm his read, countering the broken planeswalker. I pull Æther Figment, which gets around the (Giant Scorpion), just not fast enough to matter. My only real out is (Paralyzing Grasp). (Journey to Nowhere) takes out the figment for good measure, and the (Welkin Tern) I draw is not an out to death by tatters.
R1G2
This game was another casualty of MTGO, but I think it was pretty straightforward. Sorin and (Spidersilk Net) did not make an appearance, my flyers did, and that was enough to win the race. I don’t think I sideboarded for this match, but I probably should have played the other (Cancel) and potentially (Sumoner's Bane) since Villan has multiple spells I can’t really beat.
R1G3
On the draw after Villain keeps, I start with a one-lander:
While I have two plays off that single Swamp and two chances at an Island to get the (Welkin Tern) down on the second turn, this is not a keeper. With some luck it would be fine, but gambling on hands like this leads to disaster way more often than it leads to victory. Let’s try six.
Not thrilling, but it will have to do. After Villain’s Swamp-go, I pull a (Welkin Tern), drop an Island and pass. Villain has a second Swamp and no play, and the Æther Figment I draw doesn’t change the turn-two tern plan. Gloriously, Villain has no land and no play, and I rip my other (Welkin Tern) off the top, which may be the only card I would want more than a Swamp in this spot. I hit for 2, drop the second tern, and prepare to deal some sick flying beats.
Villain fails to find a third land, but my plans for aerial domination are crushed by an unkicked (Marsh Casualties), wiping out my terns in a devastating two-for-one. I pull a (Soul Stair Expedition) instead of the much-needed Swamp, salting my wounds nicely. I decline to cast an unkicked figment and pass. Villain beats me to land #3, playing a Swamp and casting (Giant Scorpion). A Swamp shows up for me as well, and (Gomazoa) hits the table before I pass. I take 1 from the scorpion, but Villain has no other land or play, and I take the turn back and rip an Island. What’s the play?
The (Giant Scorpion) is really only a concern if I want to start attacking with (Ob Nixilis, the Fallen) at some point, or if it picks up a (Spidersilk Net). In the meantime, I either want to dig for a second Swamp with (Into the Roil) or start getting counters on the (Soul Stair Expedition). I think either play is defensible, but I opt to maximize mana with the (Into the Roil) play, and pass the turn. I take another point from the scorpion after Villain plays a fourth Swamp, and I bounce his post-combat (Guul Draz Specter) with the roil, pulling a Swamp and then drawing a (Sky Ruin Drake). Now what’s the plan?
I don’t want to lead with (Ob Nixilis, the Fallen), here. Besides not having any land to actually make him bomby, he can’t attack through the (Giant Scorpion). I have multiple options to stop the specter, so this turn I want to start the beats or draw out removal by playing the Æther Figment. Removal it is, with a main-phase (Hideous End) sending the figment to the yard. Villain sends in the (Giant Scorpion), daring me to use the (Gomazoa). With multiple specter answers in hand and a desire to eventually get Ob Nixilis through, do you take the dare?
I decide that since both my methods for dealing with the scorpion involve it attacking, I should take care of it while I can, as it will stay back on defense as soon as I stick my legendary demon. The (Sky Ruin Drake) can manage the specter, and the (Paralyzing Grasp) is a backup plan should something happen to the drake. Waiting another turn to decide what to do about the scorpion isn’t a terrible option either; a lot depends on whether or not you expect to cast Ob Nixilis next turn, thus putting the scorpion in untapped mode.
Speaking of…I rip a (Surrakar Marauder) and face that very decision. What are you casting, here?
Between the specter of the specter, the lack of a land to trigger landfall, and concerns about (Journey to Nowhere), I’m leading with the drake here. Villain responds with a Plains and a (Bog Tatters), which now seems like the eventual target for my (Paralyzing Grasp). I pull a (Windrider Eel) and again think on where to invest my five mana. What are you casting here, and how, if at all, does Villain’s last play impact the decision?
This is tricky. With Villain’s library at 26 cards, there is a greater than 33% chance that a singleton (Journey to Nowhere) is already in hand. If it were, though, wouldn’t the play last turn have been to cast the specter and then (Journey to Nowhere) the drake? That maximizes mana and sets up for the (Guul Draz Specter) to go to town, but it’s also arguable that Villain just wanted to play the creature that puts me on the shortest clock.
The safe play here is to cast the eel and the (Soul Stair Expedition), but it would be nice to attack with a 6/6 Ob Nixilis if I can pull a land next turn. My gut is telling me to continue baiting the (Journey to Nowhere) until I’m sure it’s not in hand, but my logic looks at Villain’s last play and vetos the gut. After I attack with the drake, Ob Nixilis comes out to play.
Ob Nixilis is promptly sent on a (Journey to Nowhere) before the tatters drops me to 12 and the specter returns to the party. Rough. Was my gut correct, or did Villain peel that journey off the top? My reasoning was sound, but sometimes you have to go with your gut. I draw an Island, and now have six mana to work with. What should I do with it?
I can dump everything in my hand but the (Windrider Eel), which is a fine play if Villain has no removal for the drake. It will be pretty bad for me if I lose the drake, but I don’t like taking another 4 damage from the tatters to enable casting the eel this turn as specter insurance. If Villain has removal I’m probably dead no matter what.
Villain doesn’t have true removal, but a (Kor Hookmaster) targeting the drake approximates it well enough. I lose the eel to the discard, the specter becomes a 5/5, and my troubles are mounting. A Swamp adds a counter to the expedition, but leaves the specter in the 5/5 form. I leave back the marauder to trade with the hookmaster, and hope to re-stabilize once my drake untaps again. A solid plan, but after the specter drops me to 5, a second (Bog Tatters) puts me on notice that stopping the flyer alone will not save me.
The game is now virtually unwinnable, my lack of removal coming back to haunt me. With my one (Paralyzing Grasp) already holding down one tatters, I need to draw my other (Into the Roil) and rip(Cancel) off the kicker, otherwise the second tatters will seal the deal in two swings. My first pull is a miss: (Umara Raptor), which goes uncast to keep the specter at a manageable 2/2. I take another 4 from the tatters and fall to 1, calling out for the 1 in 462 chance I have at the top two cards of my library being (Into the Roil) and (Cancel), in that order. Then, Villain’s land drop for the turn makes it a moot point.
Well, I was feeling pretty good back on turn three, but that two-for-one (Marsh Casualties) was ultimately the beginning of the end. I fretted over a lot of narrow decisions in this game, but the thing that really mattered was that a counterspell and a (Paralyzing Grasp) were the only two ways in my deck I had to deal with (Bog Tatters).
Takeaways
This deck and draft feel very symptomatic of drafting black in late-season triple Zendikar: Powerful black cards early in pack compel a disproportionate number of drafters into the color, it dries up quickly, and the bottom end of those black decks become anemic. This results in decks that are fairly swingy, crushing if they draw their nutty black cards and floundering if they draw their bottom end. This trend is why, when I took Ob Nixilis first pick, my immediate thought was to what the second color was going to be. When you start with black picks in Zendikar, you have to be prepared for that second color to become your main color if a (Vampire Nighthawk) and a (Hideous End) were first-picked just upstream.
I’ll still be first-picking (Vampire Nighthawk) and (Hideous End) when I open them, but these days I am quite wary of starting with a couple of black picks. Thanks for reading, and until next week, happy drafting!
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