Last week, I left you with this pack one, pick one of an 84 triple-Zendikar draft.
Pack 1 pick 1: 
My Pick:
Clearly, the pick here is between (Emeria Angel) and (Trusty Machete), and everyone in the comments narrowed it down to those two pretty quickly. If white is flowing and I draft a solid deck, the angel will be more valuable to me than the machete. If I take the angel but then have to bail on white or I force it with marginal results, the machete will have been the better pick. Of course, I don’t have the luxury of knowing how the rest of the draft is going to go, so I have to go with my best estimation of Expected Value in this spot.
I've discussed EV in the past, but for the new and/or forgetful, it is a gambling term used to describe how much a bet (or in poker, a decision), will win or lose you in the long run. Good poker players are always looking to maximize their return by finding the play with the best EV, and the same goes for good Magic players, whether or not they label it as EV. Imagine you play out this draft a million times in a million parallel universes, half on the machete pick and half on the angel pick. Other than the contents of this one pack and the fact that it’s an 84, everything else about each of those drafts is random.
At some point, the combined results of those drafts would become statistically significant, and by a million times it would be conclusive. For any given player, you could come up with a “correct” answer to this pick simply looking at how many packs per draft that player won when picking the machete, and how many that player won when picking the angel.
Honestly, my gut says the machete has better EV, here. You know you are putting your neighbor into white, which is useful info, and the machete is going to be fantastic in any deck you end up with. You can read the upcoming signals, move into the open colors, and on average in those million drafts, you are going to have a better deck with the machete, even though the most powerful decks in the million-draft sample are going to be the ones where you took the angel.
Yeah, but I took the angel! OK, so it’s not 100% about prize-pack EV. In arguable spots like this where I am trying to decide which card is awesomer, I lean rare to gain experience with cards I don’t see as often. Since I’m not actually going to play this draft a million times (that sounds like a Sartre/Garfield collaboration on a redesign of hell), I want to test-drive the obviously great rare while I have the chance. There’s also an undeniable fun factor (despite being a Spike, fun is why I play this game), and while the pick with the better EV is debatable, the angel definitely has superior EF.
Pack 1 pick 2: 
My Pick:
Taking the angel pick one doesn’t just suggest heavy white. To me it specifically suggests white-red, white-blue, or monowhite. White-black and white-green are not particularly synergistic combinations. Both black and white have important common 1-drops, and critical commons and uncommons in the two and three slot that have double color requirements. The result is that black-white decks either conflict heavily on early mana, or they don’t run some of the best commons and uncommons, neither of which is good.
OK, (Devout Lightcaster) is rare, but it fits so perfectly across from the (Gatekeeper of Malakir). If you made a starting hand that used two of those white cards, two of those black cards, and three basic lands, the result is going to be extremely awkward no matter what.
I don’t like green-white because green doesn’t bring strong evasion or removal to the mix, not to mention that green is the weakest color in ZZZ draft (green decks can win ZZZ drafts, mind you, it’s just an uphill battle).
So, by taking (Emeria Angel), I’m looking to go white-red, white-blue, or monowhite. If my future picks don’t support one of those directions, I’m either setting myself up for a clumsy white-black or white-green deck, or I’m acknowledging that I may be abandoning my first pick. Given that, (Geyser Glider) is an acceptable pick here, but I pass on it. The glider has been falling in my rankings. Red is frequently overdrafted, and in white-red decks, I like the red to be more of a splash anyway. If the glider were a (Bladetusk Boar), a (Plated Geopede), or strong red removal instead, I’d take it. Instead I decide to forgo an average red card for a color-intensive card that represents a huge swing against one of the format’s toughest matchups. It doesn’t hurt that it also cuts relevant white from the pack completely.
Pack 1 pick 3: 
My Pick:
Here’s the (Bladetusk Boar) that I would have taken over the (Devout Lightcaster) last pick, but I’m now that much more committed to white, and I decide to keep cutting it here for the excellent (Kor Hookmaster). (Roil Elemental) is a flashy but high-variance card. with a heavy land count or land recursion tricks it can be game-winning, but it’s very fragile, requires a heavy blue commitment, and doesn’t start pulling its weight until you’ve made your seventh land drop. I just couldn’t take a triple-blue card right on the heels of a triple-white card, especially with a fine white card in the pack.
Pack 1 pick 4: 
My Pick:
I never would have even considered (Kraken Hatchling) over (Gomazoa) in the early days of Zendikar sealed, but at this point, if I’m not drafting an aggro black, red, or black-red deck myself, I am highly conscious of taking cards that can hold those decks off, because I’m going to have to face and beat one or two on the way to most finals. The hatchling doesn’t stop (Bladetusk Boar)s or (Surrakar Marauder)s, but it does stop (Vampire Lacerator)s and (Plated Geopede)s, and it stops them quickly. (Gomazoa) doesn’t come online until T3 against lacerators and T4 against geopedes, although it does stop flyers, and will ultimately remove a creature from the board entirely.
The (Ondu Cleric) is looking pretty good to me now, and I think I should have taken it. I can stick to my white guns and set up possible ally shenanigans down the road, and a couple clerics and some other allies can do as much to combat red-black aggression as an early kraken can.
Pack 1 pick 5: 
My Pick:
Thwarting aggro while being aggro is a great plan for blue. There are a few signals in this pack. Both the (Welkin Tern) and the (Bladetusk Boar) suggest red and blue are open to my right, and the complete lack of relevant black in the last couple picks suggests that black is not. If I’d known two (Bladetusk Boars) were coming, I’d have just gone white-red, but I really like white blue also, so I’m happy to take blue’s version of the evasive, race-winning two-drop.
Pack 1 pick 6: 
My Pick:
I didn’t think much of this guy at first because he’s so terrible in combat, but again, he can certainly be part of a white-blue quasi-ally strategy in which you are gaining life to outrace your opponent while making larger and larger (Umara Raptor)s and, if you are lucky, (Kazandu Blademaster)s. Wish I had that other one.
Pack 1 pick 7: 
My Pick:
Not great, especially given my desire for a 10/7 or 10/8 mana split in my W-x decks, but it’s the pick here over the “fixed” (Healing Salve).
Pack 1 pick 8: 
My Pick:
Five mana is a lot, but so is five toughness, and I’m never unhappy to have a (Sky Ruin Drake) in my white-blue decks.
Pack 1 pick 9:
My Pick:
Map over wings in a battle between cards I hope not to play.
Pack 1 pick 10:
My Pick:
A solid spot to take (Reckless Scholar).
Remaining Pack-one picks:
Pack 2 pick 1: 
My Pick:
The (Kor Aeronaut) caught my eye first, and fetchlands are always a tempting raredraft—even the lowly (Misty Rainforest)—but I’m not passing a second (Trusty Machete).
Pack 2 pick 2: 
My Pick:
Here’s a rare I’ve been wanting to try in draft. It’s slow to the table and seems susceptible to gang-blocks that reduce it to a six-mana 2:1 with some life gain, but it still feels like a card that can turn a game around if it comes down after the removal is all in the graveyard. (Brave the Elements), (Trusty Machete), and any bounce I can pick up to mess with gang blocks all make (Felidar Sovereign) much better.
Note that the pack-one cutting of black is working out for my neighbor, who is getting two (Hideous End)s right off the bat in pack two.
Pack 2 pick 3: 
My Pick:
More good stuff for black heads downstream while I take my only playable in the pack. (Kor Cartographer) can actually accelerate me into a turn-five (Felidar Sovereign), which is nice.
Pack 2 pick 4: 
My Pick:
This was a tough pick, something I never would have said during my early Zendikar drafts. “Fight aggro with aggro” is a very reasonable approach and I’ll take as many (Steppe Lynx)es as I can get, but the (Shepherd of the Lost) is a potent five drop, and is particularly nuts wielding a machete. So is the lynx, or anything, really…but five power of flying, first-striking vigilance is almost impossible to stop with creatures other than (Gomazoa). I’m curious where you guys fall on this one: is anyone taking the lynx over the shepherd, here? How close is it for you?
Pack 2 pick 5: 
My Pick:
It’s looking like cutting white is paying some dividends with this easy pick. I’d like a (Whiplash Trap) at some point, though.
Pack 2 pick 6: 
My Pick:
After the disaster draft I walked through my last two articles, I’m paranoid about playables, but I think I could have just hated the archer, here, which can wreak havoc on UW decks even with only a couple other allies.
Pack 2 pick 7: 
My Pick:
I’m surprised to see a (Spire Barrage) given the good red I passed in pack one, and happy to see another chance at a (Steppe Lynx). It’s certainly a candidate for my card with the highest rise in value since my initial estimations of Zendikar limited. Initially I was concerned about how bad they were in the late game, but that was before I understood that “late game” frequently means turn five in Zendikar.
Pack 2 pick 8: 
My Pick:
Nice with a machete, but unlikely to see play at this point.
Remaining pack-two picks (not including full-frame land grabs)
Pack 3 pick 1: 
My Pick:
A welcome first pick and fine as the only ally in my deck. Mana-for-mana, it wields a machete better than anything this side of (Vampire Nighthawk), and being able to race and defend at the same time is just crazy good in Zendikar. Too bad I haven’t seen any (Umara Raptor)s yet, which I will now take over all but the bombiest of spells the rest of the way.
Pack 3 pick 2: 
My Pick:
Another 2/2 for (mana=w)(mana=w), so, basically interchangeable with the blademaster, right? OK, Maybe not. Man, the white-red deck I turned down is looking pretty hot right about now…
Pack 3 pick 3: 
My Pick:
A silly, bad pick. (Ondu Cleric) is only going to see play if I pick up another couple allies, but the upside of that potentiality is quite high, whereas the (Ior Ruin Expedition) has no upside—it is mediocre card drawing with downsides. Oh look! (Inferno Trap)!
The hardest part about not being in red or black is having to pass all these cards that are likely to end up beating you.
Pack 3 pick 4: 
My Pick:
Another solid way to win the race against red, while passing another solid way for red to win the race against me.
Pack 3 pick 5: 
My Pick:
A classic, “can I just take the rest of this pack and call it good?” scenario: I want the (Welkin Tern), the (Blazing Torch), the (Whiplash Trap), and most of all, the (Kor Skyfisher), but I have to settle for my top choice, which narrowly edged out the colorless removal. Double skyfisher is great, though, and I’d rather just race than remove with this pick. T1 machete, T2 skyfisher bouncing machete, T3 recast and equip machete, swing with 4/4 flyer. Seems good!
(This just in: Zendikar, it turns out, is fast.)
Pack 3 pick 6: 
My Pick:
I don’t see running two (Brave the Elements), so I cut the potent burn spell that makes monored decks extremely tough to beat.
Pack 3 pick 7:
My Pick:
It’s (Kraken Hatchling) vs. (Gomazoa) redux, but this time with a third player. I’m pushing my top end with this pick, but I like that the (Sky Ruin Drake) can play either defense or offense, depending on need.
Pack 3 pick 8: 
My Pick:
I want that (Stonework Puma) so badly. It trades with all the key intimidate creatures and buffs the blademaster, but I couldn’t quite pull the trigger on it over the notorious eel. If I’d pulled even one (Umara Raptor) between P3P1 and here, that would push me into puma over eel, as my air force is already looking pretty good.
Pack 3 pick 9:
My Pick:
We’ll see if I run two, but given the (Emeria Angel) and the (Felidar Sovereign) to dig for, I know I’ll be running at least one.
Pack 3 pick 10:
My Pick:
Stripping red of additional racing tools.
Pack 3 pick 11:
My Pick:
I already have a (Narrow Escape), no (Journey to Nowhere)s, and a solid playable count, so I again hate on red a bit.
The rest of pack three:
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