Waiting for Godot: Facing Your Wrecks, Pt. 2

Last week I left off at the mulligan decision of R1G2 in a Zendikar 84 draft, having won game one despite playing a deck with a pretty terrible back end. If you missed it, check out last week’s article for draft coverage and the game-one walkthrough, or just read this recap: I had a disaster draft brewing after pack one, with a light playable count spread across four colors. In packs two and three I scraped together a red-white build that had some aggressive early threats and removal to (hopefully) make up for it’s lower-than-average card quality. This paid off in game one against a blue-green deck that was unable to race me effectively or remove any of my threats, which allowed me to set up for a near-alpha (Goblin Bushwhacker).

On the draw in game two, I find myself with these seven after Villain keeps. Are you keeping or shipping this hand?

On the plus side, it has something to do on turn two, and turn three as well with any land pull, and one of my metrics for keeping a hand is to ask myself if I have any plays in hand, and if any land draw by turn three will lead to additional plays. This hand passes both of those tests, but besides making a 2/2 flyer early, it’s not very exciting.

If the “any land” I draw is a Plains, I have a 1/4 defender against an opponent playing green-blue, the colors of flying and fat, neither of which the shieldmate is particularly good against. More damning, however, are the (Shatterskull Giant) and the (Molten Ravager). If I do manage to find a Mountain in short order, the ravager is barely better than a (Kraken Hatchling), and the giant is still one red source away from seeing play. I have 33 cards in my library, and 7 are Mountains. That’s 1 Mountain in every 4.7 cards, or 2 Mountains in every 9+ cards. On average, I shouldn't expect to play the giant until about turn nine, a turn Zendikar draft games frequently fail to reach.

Therefore, despite the dreamy 2/2 flyer on turn 2, this hand needs to go back. If you chose to keep this hand, you need to be more aggressive with your mulligan decisions — or at the very least, don’t complain at your opponent about the shuffler or your bad luck when you keep something like this and then lose after drawing a turn-five Mountain that’s too late to save you. Here are my six: Bleh, not an improvement at all. The mulligan to six was definitely the correct choice, but I don’t like going to five from here since I at least have two land. I’ll have to hope I draw out, and at least find the third land I need to hold down the ground.

I defy the 1-in-4.8 odds to rip a Mountain off the top, and I drop my turn-two (Zektar Shrine Expedition) like it was the plan all along. Villain answers with a (Stonework Puma), but I clog the ground shortly after with (Makindi Shieldmate) into (Pillarfield Ox) off of a third (Plains). My card quality is pretty low, but I’m casting my spells, so I can’t complain given that six-card starter.

Villain stalls at three land, but casts (Lotus Cobra), so I can expect an explosive un-stalling at some point in the future. I’ve drawn a (Steppe Lynx) and a Mountain. What’s your play for this turn?

R1G2 #1

Playing the Mountain puts three counters on the shrine, but I don’t want to crack it while the token is vulnerable to (Into the Roil), even unkicked. Instead, I swing with the ox, which goes unblocked as expected. Then I drop the Mountain and play out the (Grappling Hook) and the (Steppe Lynx). Villain finds a Forest and taps all but an Island to get out a (Timbermaw Larva) before passing.

I rip a (Kor Outfitter) and plot my course. What’s your play this turn?

R1G2 #2

It’s funny that I actually have a (Kor Outfitter) at a time where it makes the most expensive equip cost in the set free, but at a time where I don’t really have anything else to do with the saved mana. In this spot, since there is no instant for (mana=u) that can stop it, I like cracking the shrine and casting the outfitter to move the (Grappling Hook) onto the 7/1 trampler for 14 points of damage. In the game, I chose to “lure” the (Timbermaw Larva), but I actually like luring the cobra in retrospect. If Villain wants to attack me with the larva, great. It’s really not that much of a threat right now, and I can always (Arrow Volley Trap) it later with the +X/+X on the stack if it becomes a problem. Cobra is the card most likely to lead to a Villain recovery, so I should have taken it out.

Still, I send in a double-striking, trampling 7/1 and its trusty ox, the larva blocks as instructed, and Villain drops from 18 to 4 in one swing. Not bad! A draw-go turn has me concerned about (Into the Roil) and (Vines of Vastwood) as I untap and draw another (Steppe Lynx). Given the high likelihood of a trick, how do you play this turn?

R1G2 #3

(Into the Roil) would be quite a tempo blowout if I try to equip the ox, here, sending back the ox without the mana to recast it. Given that, I think the play is to equip the (Kor Outfitter). If the outfitter is bounced, it can at least re-equip the hook next turn for free. If it’s (Vines of the Vastwood), the Kor is also the better equip, as I’d rather he die than the 2/4 ox. In the game, I become a little overly-cautious, simply not equipping anything at all and swinging in with both. Even though I suspect a trick, I would rather just draw it out, so in retrospect I would equip the outfitter with the hook instead of the ox and swing with both.

The trick turns out to be an as-of-yet unseen (Lethargy trap), and my double-blocked ox dies while my outfitter deals –1 damage. I equip the hook onto the outfitter, play out my second lynx, and pass. An (Oran-Rief Recluse) joins the defense before I get the turn back, and I pull a (Shatterskull Giant). With only a Forest up across the table, it’s safe to swing in with the outfitter and force another block. I choose the recluse so that if I do manage to hit landfall and turn these silly lynxes from kobolds into (Kird Ape)s, there will be no good blocking options for the 2/3s.

(Shatterskull Giant) joins my team before passing the turn, and again there is a quick draw-go turn before it’s back on me, pulling (Plated Geopede) off the top. Any special plans here given the suspicious no-play?

R1G2 #4

Not really. A trick is likely, yes, but if I just keep hammering away, eventually I will hit a land for the two lynxes and the geopede to come, and that should be game. I’m happy to draw out tricks in the meantime. The trick in this case turns out to be (Vines of Vastwood) on the (Lotus Cobra) with the (Grappling Hook) ability on the stack. This clever play allows the puma to chump the outfitter and the cobra to block and kill the giant. Again, though, I’m unconcerned, and just drop the geopede and pass.

Villain still can’t muster a land, and plays a desperation unkicked (Æther Figment) before passing. I clearly don’t have enough kobolds on my team, so I draw my last (Steppe Lynx) to round out the apparently-napping lynx pride (I couldn’t find a term for “group of lynxes”  on the internet, therefore it must not exist). Nothing to do but keep crashing in, so the outfitter and the geopede hit the red zone, with the outfitter luring the cobra to its death, and the life totals moving to 20 – 2.

Villain finally finds a fifth land, but then suspiciously passes the turn again. This screams (Whiplash Trap) to me, and I’m trying to decide what to do when I draw (Blazing Torch) to make it moot. I wake up a lynx and hand it the torch, and the threat of two to the dome earns a concession.

Well, (Grappling Hook) is expensive, and not something I’m excited to be playing in a format as fast as Zendikar draft, but it pulled its weight in this game, making up for five zero-impact cards between the (Shieldmate), the three lynxes, and the (Arrow Volley Trap). The shieldmate may have prevented an attack somewhere in there, but not one of any real consequence.

Many Magic pundits have called (Grappling Hook) flat-out unplayable. It is certainly a sign of my weak deck, here, but I consider “unplayable” to mean literally, “an extra basic land is the superior play.” While too clunky to be consistently good in a format where you need to be aggro or beat aggro, it nonetheless has an upside that keeps it out of the “unplayable” pile for weak decks like this one. It would actually be solid in beefy green decks with mana ramping and a good survival plan against aggro (read: (Grazing Gladeheart)s and (Oran-Rief Recluse)s).

R2G1

After some scouting between rounds, I culled together this partial decklist for my round-two opponent:

For the more link-minded:

1 (Hideous End)
2 (Torch Slinger)
1 (Crypt Ripper)
1 (Teetering Peaks)
1 (Hagra Crocodile)
1 (Disfigure)
1 (Goblin Ruinblaster)
1 (Highland Berserker)
1 (Hedron Scrabbler)
1 (Vampire Nighthawk)
1 (Ruinous Minotaur)
1 (Khalni Gem)
1 (Tuktuk Grunts)
1 (Akoum Refuge)

Sideboard
1 (Bog Tatters)

The dreaded (mana=r)(mana=b) matchup. While this pool isn’t as scary as it could be for the archetype, the Disfigure, Hideous End, Vampire Nighthawk, and double Torch Slingers are scary enough. That’s the thing: even marginal (mana=r)(mana=b) decks are better than a lot of the “good” builds of other archetypes. We’ll see if I can handle it…

I lose the toss again and check my seven for the draw:

Similar to my R1G2 opener, but imminently more playable with the Mountain in the mix. Keep.

Villain has a turn-two (Vampire Hexmage), and I answer with the 2/2 flyer after pulling (Journey to Nowhere) and a Plains. A (Hedron Scrabbler) joins enemy ranks, suggesting that maybe I’m not the only one who came up short on solid playables this draft. I take two from the hexmage and start my turn with a (Shatterskull Giant) off the top. I return the attack for 2 and make the obvious (Makindi Shieldmate) play.

A fourth land turns the scrabbler into a bear, (Hideous End) turns my shieldmate into worm food while hitting me for 2, and I drop to 12 on the attack. I need to stabilize, and I draw a (Goblin Bushwhacker), who is not much help in that department. What’s the plan?

R2G1 #1

If I can find a Mountain I can really start to turn this ship around, but in the meantime, I like just dropping the (Molten Ravager) to prevent 2 damage, and swinging in the air since I don’t want to block with the aeronaut yet anyway.

A reasonable plan, but my troubles are compounded when a (Crypt Ripper) comes down to throw off my math. At least there’s no Swamp to go with it, so the scrabbler stays a 1/1 and the ripper a 2/2, but I fall to 9 on the attack, and need some help. Unfortunately the (Zektar Shrine Expedition) I pull is about the deadest draw in my deck, so I plot my turn with the resources I already had.

R2G1 #2

The clear play is to send the (Crypt Ripper) on a (Journey to Nowhere), and hope the one Mountain left up is a deterrent for the hexmage. Less clear is whether or not I should attack with the aeronaut. Without landfall, it can hold off the scrabbler, but so does the (Molten Ravager) and a Mountain. The conservative thing to do is keep the aeronaut behind in case of removal, (Goblin Shortcutter), or the like, but I’m still at 9 life, so with that cushion, I decide the attack is worth it. Hopefully my faith in the ravager will be rewarded.

Villain opens with a (Highland Berserker), and I think I may be OK, but shortly after, the (Vampire Hexmage) hits the red zone. What's going on here, and what’s to be done about it?

R2G1 #3

This is a clearly-telegraphed (Disfigure), or possibly (Vampire's Bite) given the first strike. Unfortunately, we have nothing to do but draw it out, as I don’t like letting it through, which just takes more damage and leaves Villain with removal for later. This puts even more pressure on me to draw a Mountain and play the giant, but it has to be done. The Ravager falls to the (Disfigure) as expected, and I search for help on the top of my library.

Help arrives in the form of a Mountain, and I drop the (Shatterskull Giant) for some defense, and swing again with the aeronaut. Too aggressive? I’m still at 9 life, and like the ravager before, I’m hoping the giant can hold the ground by himself as I keep pecking away in the air. Interestingly, a second (Disfigure) takes out the aeronaut before damage. This is one of those plays that seems great for me on the surface…Villain misplays and doesn’t use the (Disfigure) to take out the giant! Sweet! Except, as I’ve said before, when a competent player makes an apparently incompetent play, 95% of the time it means you’ve already lost.

Yup.

R2G1 #4

(Mark of Mutiny) is a very archetype-dependent card. It’s a solid finisher in aggro red-x, and gets better the more aggro you are. It isn’t great unless it’s the final spell of the game, but in a red-black deck with lots of removal, it frequently will be. It’s certainly a much better effect in speedy Zendikar than it is as (Act of Treason) in slower M10 where red is the most shallow color.

R2G2

On the play for the first time this draft, I open with these seven:

A little land-light, and I hate seeing multiples from the bottom end of my deck in my opener, but the (Steppe Lynx) and (Blazing Torch) are good enough to make it a keeper. I drop the lynx, and brace for the (Disfigure) with the landfall ability on the stack turn two. It doesn’t come, so I hit for two and equip the torch. Villain has the turn-two (Vampire Hexmage) again, and it looks like the blocking clause on the torch could be relevant this game after I pull a Mountain off the top.

I draw (Explorer's Scope) and have to decide between the scope play, or getting the (Molten Ravager) online. Which do you choose?

R2G2 #1

If there’s a land on top of my library, the scope play will be phenomenal, with the cat swinging unblocked for 4, and a fourth land dropping into play. I decide that’s well worth the risk of swinging and missing, so I play the Mountain, cast the scope, equip the lynx, and attack. Yahtzee! A Plains off the top completes a beautiful turn that sees Villain down to 14 on turn three.

The lynx meets with a (Hideous End) shortly after, but dealing 6 damage and drawing out top-shelf removal is a fine contribution from a 1cc creature. I draw a Mountain and cast the (Pillarfield Ox), equipping it with the torch before passing back the turn. Villain finds a fourth land, and out comes the dreaded (Vampire Nighthawk), conveniently out of torch range. It looks like (Arrow Volley Trap) will have a use this game. I pull (Adventuring Gear) off the top and plot the next few turns. What’s your plan?

R2G2 #2

I could hold back for the (Arrow Volley Trap), but it would be a telegraphed play given my decision not to equip the scope or play out anything from my hand. I’d rather take one attack from the nighthawk and dump some of my hand this turn to be less obvious about it. The question then, is what combination of (Molten Ravager), (Adventuring Gear), and equipping do I do? The temptation to get the scope/gear combo going proves overwhelming, so I make the most prepared ox of all time. Playing out the ravager and (Adventuring Gear) and then only equipping one is also an option, but then if I don’t draw a land next turn, I telegraph the trap again by not equipping. I send in Indiana Ox but miss the land, instead seeing ahead to the (Makindi Shieldmate) on top of my library.

Villain drops a Swamp and a (Crypt Ripper), and now I’m troubled, as the (Arrow Volley Trap) play is only going to do so much against that board. I untap and draw the shieldmate, and decide how best to handle the situation.

R2G2 #3

This is a tricky spot. I want to maximize my (Arrow Volley Trap), but if I leave the ox back, it is likely that I may only have the (Vampire Nighthawk) attacking. The (Crypt Ripper) may also swing, though, if Villain doesn’t play around anything, or if he draws a (Disfigure) and doesn’t see the ox as a threat. ((Disfigure) is only a possibility if he just drew it or is about to, because it would have been used over the (Hideous End) on my lynx, and a land was clearly the card drawn the turn after that).

What I need to figure out here is if there’s a way to take out both the nighthawk and the ripper if the Swamp count stays the same and both of them attack me. Assuming Villain won’t want to fully pump the ripper because I will just torch it next turn, but will pump to 4/4, review the board above and see if you can find a way.

The narrow window for taking out both is to let loose the arrows and torch while the second ripper pump is on the stack. At that point, the ripper will be at 3/3 with a +1/+1 on the stack, and one Swamp left. If at that point I throw the torch and volley some arrows to aim 4 damage at the ripper and 3 damage at the nighthawk, activating the final pump in response won’t save the ripper, and they will both die.

With that figured out, the play here is to stay back on defense and hope Villain attacks with both. If not, I will have to accept the 1:1 by taking out the nighthawk with the (Arrow Volley Trap). Unfortunately, this is not what I do, and this could be the play error I was looking for when I decided to go back and look at these games. In the moment, I didn’t figure out the “do it with two pumps on the stack” play, and felt my best chance was to encourage an attack with everything so that I could at least take out the hexmage and the nighthawk with the arrows. Accordingly, I swing in with the ox. For what it’s worth, I hit a Plains with the scope, dealt 4 damage, and passed the turn.

Villain draws and plays a Swamp, effectively closing the narrow window I had found with hindsight for an optimal (Arrow Volley Trap) anyway. It doesn’t change that the correct decision for my turn was to stay back on defense, but it looks like it wouldn’t have affected the outcome. The (Crypt Ripper), (Vampire Hexmage), and (Vampire Nighthawk) all come crashing into the red zone, the ripper inflates to 5/5, and I take out the hexmage and the nighthawk with the (Arrow Volley Trap).

I expected the one untapped Swamp after combat. Unexpected, however, is Villain then tapping out to bring a (Ruinous Minotaur) into play. I’m surprised the ripper is being left vulnerable to the torch in exchange for a single point of damage, but the play does put me one minotaur hit away from death, and will force me to tap the ox to throw the torch, then play a creature or additional removal to survive.

I draw (Kor Duelist). How do I set up for the next wave of attacks?

R2G2 #4

I have to take out the (Crypt Ripper) while I can, so I throw the torch at it, then play the (Kor Duelist) and the (Makindi Shieldmate), then equip the duelist with the (Explorer's Scope) to give it minotaur-trading double strike. I’m thinking I may finally have this one under control, when a kicked (Torch Slinger) hits the battlefield and takes out the duelist, and I have to chump the minotaur with the (Makindi Shieldmate) just to stay alive.

A Mountain off the top isn’t the best card I could have hoped for, but it allows me to play the (Molten Ravager) with enough power on board to trade with the minotaur and hold off the (Torch Slinger), which is the important thing. Villain drops (Teetering Peaks) and makes the fire-chucking goblin a 4/2, though, changing the complexion of the board dramatically when he swings in with both. Obviously, the minotaur must be blocked, but what about the slinger? Go to one, or trade with it, too?

R2G2 #5

I think I have to go to 1, here. An empty board and a two-cards-to-none hand disparity just doesn’t seem like my best shot at winning, especially since, given the missed land drop early, both of Villain’s cards are spells. My best chance to win is to keep the ravager around to fight another day, and risk going to 1. I decide against that plan in the game, though, and make the trades. Villain follows with a (Bladetusk Boar), and I am seriously up against it, and seriously regretting the trade. I pull (Kor Outfitter), who equips himself up for a battle in which he cannot block. I still have another turn, though.

That is, until Villain drops a (Khalni Gem), returns the (Teetering Peaks), and replays it for the win off five points of intimidate damage. He also plays out a (Goblin Ruinblaster), which I block with the (Kor Outfitter) for pride. The crucial game mistake, then, was not being willing to go to 1, when it was obvious Villain had no burn, as it would have been used to clear away my blockers.

I didn’t look at the top of my library, but who knows? Maybe I pull miracles off the top and come back. Maybe we go to game three, and I manage a win despite having the clearly inferior deck. Maybe I get lucky again in the finals and take down 8 packs. It’s easy to lose a match, throw up your hands and call it bad luck, bad deck, and dismiss it as having been inevitable. It’s hard to go back and look for mistakes, but if you have one of those drafts where you end with the nagging suspicion that you missed something, go back and look for it — you probably did.

Next week I’ll walk through another 84 that began with this pack one, pick one:

  Pack 1 pick 1:
 

((Zendikar Farguide), (Expedition Map), (Vampire's Bite), (Trusty Machete), (Steppe Lynx), (Tajuru Archer), (Relic Crush), (Demolish), (Zektar Shrine Expedition), (Quest for Ancient Secrets), (Tuktuk Grunts), (Emeria Angel), (Harrow), (Nimbus Wings))

Hint: my pick was not blue! What’s your choice? Let me know in the comments, and we’ll compare notes next week…

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