Waiting for Godot: M10 #1 – Part 2

Welcome back! If you missed part one, check out last week’s article and catch up.

A recap for the lazy and/or forgetful: I entered the Swiss queue for my first M10 draft, and ended up with a solid green-black build centered around the all-stars (Overrun) and (Master of the Wild Hunt). After cruising to a relatively easy round-one win that required some dodging of (Manabarbs), I’m back, and looking to ride (Overrun) and the huntmaster to a 3-0 finish.

 

R2G1

Round two kicks in, I lose the roll and assess my opener on the draw: This is a sketchy hand that underscores the problem of having two colors both looking for a lot of color-specific mana: you pull hands that need both spells and specific lands to be great, but aren’t insta-mulls, either. Any Swamp, (Rampant Growth) or (Borderland Ranger) and I have a solid (Tendrils of Corruption) and a nice five drop. If I draw a Swamp and no other early plays, though, I may have to spend my second turn on a (Sign in Blood) that forces a discard. I end up keeping this hand in the actual game, but sitting here now, I’m not sure. I have a lot of ways to draw out just fine with this hand, but there are some possible disaster draws as well.

My first draw mocks me with my second (Tendrils of Corruption), and Villain uses a Plains and an Island to reorder his library with (Sage Owl). I find the Swamp I want on my second draw, but it brings up the (Sign in Blood) dilemma. Do I play the (Sign in Blood) and discard, or play a land and pass?

R2G1 #1

The double tendrils and second Swamp have me feeling good about my ability to come back from off my heels if Villain puts on the pressure, so I see no compelling reason to blow the (Sign in Blood) now. I play out a Forest and pass. There are no three drops in my deck that need two green mana, though, so I should be piling on Swamps for maximum tendrils. It’s a small mistake that’s unlikely to matter, but that’s what makes mistakes like that so brutal when they do.

Villain casts a (Veteran Swordsmith) and I find my (Llanowar Elves) on top, rendering my land mistake moot and allowing for the elves/(Sign in Blood) play on turn three with no discard required. The draw nets me another Swamp and a (Vampire Aristocrat), and I pass. Villain untaps, (Ponder)s, keeps, and plays an Island. At this point, Villain has (Sage Owl)ed on turn two, then (Ponder)ed and kept on turn three, so I can assume I’m up against a solid draw. Sage Owl into Ponder typically sets you up to shuffle away your unwanteds, but I’m apparently up against an opponent who doesn’t have any.

I take four from the attack, but Villain passes without a further play. I draw a fourth Swamp, and can now power out a (Stampeding Rhino) or go with the (Tendrils of Corruption) on the Swordsmith. What’s the play?

R2G1 #2

(Essence Scatter) is bad for the (Stampeding Rhino) play, and (Negate), (Harm's Way), and (Safe Passage) all mess with the (Tendrils of Corruption) play. Despite there being more anti-tendrils plays, the (Essence Scatter) feels most likely, as a creature is what Villain ought to be expecting from me this turn. Is that enough of a reason to play tendrils instead though?  I decide it’s not, because I have another Swamp in hand and more-powerful tendrils coming. Villain has the (Essence Scatter) for my rhino, though, and I’m left wondering if that read was clear enough to warrant playing around it. Perhaps, but Villain may have had one of the anti-tendrils cards in hand as well.

I’m falling far behind, here, but double tendrils and heavy Swamps can make for a solid comeback. That hill becomes steeper to climb when Villain follows with a (Rhox Pikemaster) and hits me for another four. I find a fifth Swamp, which sets me up for a (Tendrils of Corruption) this turn and a second tendrils and the (Vampire Aristocrat) the following turn. If Villain is out of gas, that should be enough to stabilize.

I cast the tendrils during my main phase; there are very few spells I can respond to profitably during Villain’s turn, but there are many spells that I dodge by casting the tendrils now. Treating your instant-speed removal as a sorcery is frequently correct; don’t let your opponent untap if you don’t have a good reason. Which creature should I take out with the tendrils?

R2G1 #3

The possibility of (Harm's Way) makes taking out the (Veteran Swordsmith) at two toughness the more-correct play, since it doesn’t change the amount of damage I’ll take on the next attack, and next turn my fifth Swamp will put (Rhox Pikemaster) out of (Harm’s Way) range as well. I instinctively target the pikemaster with a “kill the most expensive threat” mentality, though, but Villain has no response and I score a free lesson (a recognized mistake that doesn’t change the outcome of a game).

Villain slams me for another four before casting a (Razorfoot Griffin), and I draw more land. With the (Vampire Aristocrat) ready to come down and threaten to be a 4/4, the griffin is now the greater threat to my life total than the (Veteran Swordsmith), so I play a Swamp, the vampire, and (Tendrils of Corruption) the griffin.

I take a point from the (Sage Owl) and Villain reloads with a (Stormfront Pegasus) and a (Griffin Sentinel). I still have 13 life, but things are looking grim.

R2G1 #4

I draw another land, which is no help at all. I have three draws to deal with those flyers before I'm dead, and that’s assuming no additional threats hit the table. I take another 4, falling to 9, and Villain passes the turn with two cards in hand. I pull the miracle (Giant Spider), but naturally it meets with a (Cancel), and the writing is on the wall. I fall to the flying army, but not before Villain needlessly plays a (Serra Angel) with me at 2 life and no board, giving me a little extra info for game two. I head to sideboard, suddenly wishing I had that (Windstorm) waiting for me.

R2G2

I bring in the (Deathmark) for the (Mind Rot), opt to play, and review my seven:

A near-perfect hand given the opposition, with acceleration and the all-important (Giant Spider) for the flyers. Pay no attention to the Wall of Wood. Villain has a turn-two (Veteran Armorsmith) and a turn-three (Palace Guard). A nice start, but at least it leaves me free to stick my (Giant Spider) and Bramble Creeper. Villain (Ponder)s and keeps before playing a second Island and passing. I draw another Forest and swing in with the (Bramble Creeper) with (Giant Growth) backup. Given Villain’s unshuffled (Ponder) and pass, what are some outcomes to this combat phase that I might reasonably expect?

R2G2 #1

If Villain has nothing, I'm expecting no block. If I'm blocked, I'm expecting (Harm's Way), (Righteousness), or (Safe Passage). Villain puts the (Veteran Armorguard) on the creeper, and I pass priority, preparing for what I expect will be a (Righteousness), the only play that creates a 1:1. Instead, there’s no play, and (Veteran Armorsmith) goes to the bin as an early chump. Play the (Vampire Aristocrat)?

R2G2 #2

Villain showed solid skills in game one, with no obvious gameplay mistakes beyond unnecessarily showing me (Serra Angel), and then makes a very strange chump block at 20 life. Highly suspicious. Generally, the only time a solid player will chump a quality creature like (Veteran Armorsmith) in that spot is if they are setting up a sweeper of some kind. This is a strong telegraphing of (Planar Cleansing), but I dismiss the chump block as a play mistake, and play out the (Vampire Aristocrat).

Villain (Ponder)s and keeps again, passing the turn with four mana up. I draw (Llanowar Elves) and consider the play for the turn:

R2G2 #3

With the (Planar Cleansing) read, the play is to swing with everything and do as much damage in as I can, saving the (Llanowar Elves) in hand. I’m still in “Villain made a play mistake” thinking, though, and I play out the (Llanowar Elves) precombat to give (Vampire Aristocrat) a good activation threat. I’m concerned about (Divine Verdict) so I hold back my vital (Giant Spider), but I’m ready to trade the creeper or vampire for some damage and the removal spell. Villain puts (Palace Guard) on both (Bramble Creeper) and (Vampire Aristocrat), and again has no play. It finally sinks in, and I realize how badly I’ve misplayed the last two turns.

In a now-unsurprising play, (Planar Cleansing) wipes the board, and I'm left holding a (Giant Growth) when I should at least have a couple of creatures on which to rebuild. I draw a Forest and pass, while Villain makes a (Veteran Swordsmith) and passes with (mana=u)(mana=u)(mana=w) up. I draw (Hypnotic Specter) and try to make him stick, but really the only question was: (Cancel) or (Essence Scatter)? (Essence Scatter) takes care of the hyppie, and Villain adds an (Undead Slayer) to the table after hitting me for 3.

I rip three lands in a row, and find myself at 2 life against 4 creatures when I draw my second (Giant Spider). It’s far too late, but I cast it anyway, and natch, it meets a second (Essence Scatter) for the poetic ending.

(pic=planar cleansing) Normally it’s not very useful or accurate to put your opponents on rares you don’t know for certain they have, but when a specific rare is the only thing that explains the actions of a good player, start playing around it. Really, my failure to recognize the (Planar Cleansing) was another free lesson, as it certainly didn’t change the outcome, here. The (Undead Slayer) would have dealt with my (Vampire Aristocrat), and (Llanowar Elves) would not have cut it on defense. I’m usually very good at sniffing out those kinds of plays, though, and I’m a bit embarrassed that I missed this one, even if it didn’t change the outcome.

I like Villain’s archetype a lot. Blue has some cheap counters in (Essence Scatter) and (Negate) that work particularly well with cheap, aggressive flyers and/or soldiers. Counterspells preserve the status quo; they prevent the game state from changing. In limited, they are only good, therefore, when an unchanged board is to your advantage. That inability to help turn a game from bad to neutral or neutral to advantageous is what makes countermagic generally less appealing than true removal in limited. In a (mana=w)(mana=u) weenie/flyer deck, though, you are much more likely to create an advantageous board position early, at which point countermagic becomes excellent, helping you keep that advantageous board unchanged.

R3G1

I lose the toss and check my seven on the draw:

I pull the dreaded two-lander, but I feel good about this one, especially on the draw. Any land in three draws and I have action, and any reasonable land ratio through the first six turns and and I’ll have a (Master of the Wild Hunt)—hopefully protected by the (Giant Growth—for Villain to contend with.

I find a (Giant Spider) with my first draw, Villain makes an (Elvish Visionary), and I hit a Forest on my second draw. It leaves me with no turn-two plays, but I have the turn-three action I was counting on with my keep, and I’m any land away from (Master of the Wild Hunt) mana. Villain increases the pressure with a (Birds of Paradise) and a (Runeclaw Bears) which were likely the draws from the visionary and the draw step, as both probably would have been played before the (Elvish Visionary) last turn had they been in hand.

I draw a second Swamp and now I’m loving this hand. I drop a Swamp (it doesn’t matter which land in this spot), and choose: (Vampire Aristocrat) or (Kelinore Bat)?

R3G1 #1

This is a close call. If the bat is more important to eventually winning and Villain has removal or tricks, I may want to bait it out with the vampire. He clogs up the ground a bit, either stopping the (Elvish Visionary) or drawing out tricks. If I play out the bat and it dies to removal, that will leave the vampire to come down later and potentially feed off of wolf tokens, which also seems strong. If there is an absolute correct play here, the incorrect one isn’t that incorrect. I opt to clog up the ground and draw out tricks with the (Vampire Aristocrat).

Villain untaps, plays a Mountain, and swings with (Elvish Visionary) and (Runeclaw Bear). He is either up to something or running a bluff. Block?

R3G1 #2

(Kindled Fury), (Trumpet Blast), (Giant Growth), and a postcombat (Sparkmage Apprentice) are the likely possibilities. Since part of the reason behind playing out the vamp over the bat was to draw out tricks, though, I’m happy to block and have him burn gas on my bait instead of the real threats lurking in my hand. I throw the (Vampire Aristocrat) under the bus and block the (Elvish Visionary). It turns out to be (Sparkmage Apprentice), which I’m also OK with given the one-toughness flyer in my hand.

What the plan for turn four?

R3G1 #3

There are several interesting options, here. I can play (Deadly Recluse) and (Sign in Blood) to search for a Forest to play a protected (Master of the Wild Hunt) on turn five, I can cast (Giant Spider) to really stall out the game until I can get my bomb online, I can play the (Kelinore Bat) with (Giant Growth) protection, or I can push the huntmaster into play now.

I don’t like either of the last two options. That (Giant Growth) is reserved for the (Master of the Wild Hunt), not the bat, and as in round one, there’s no reason to run out a defenseless, three-toughness, game-winning bomb against a red deck when I have (Giant Growth) in hand. It’s close between the other two options. The (Giant Spider) is the more conservative play that’s looking towards long-term (Master of the Wild Hunt) inevitability, while the blood/recluse play is more aggressive, putting out a lesser threat and taking some life to set up the master sooner.

I opt for the (Giant Spider) play, knowing I can run out the recluse/blood plan next turn if I don’t naturally draw the Forest, and in the meantime I really tie up the ground with the four-toughness spider. Villain has other ideas, dropping a maindeck (Emerald Oryx), and suddenly there's pressure on me to get the huntmaster online ASAP instead of just strolling leisurely towards my bomb while hiding behind the (Giant Spider). I pull (Overrun) on the draw, which ought to come in handy if I can get my Forest. I make the (Sign in Blood)/(Deadly Recluse) play this time, finding (Mind Rot) and (Borderland Ranger).

The oryx forestwalks me down to 13, but Villain has no other play and doesn’t drop a land. I draw into a Forest naturally, and review my options:

 R3G1 #4

Yeah right, options. I have the option to play my bomb with (Giant Growth) backup, working towards a game-winning (Overrun). Seems good! (Master of the Wild hunt) hits the table and I pass. Oryx hits me a for a couple more, followed by more inaction from Villain. I draw Wall of Wood, and seek to optimize my turn. What’s the play?

R3G1 #5

I want to drop as many creatures as a I can, but not at the risk of tying up my (Giant Growth) mana. The play is to cast (Borderland Ranger) seeking a Forest. The Forest is the right land to fetch because it sets up an (Overrun) and a (Giant Growth) on the same turn. Having secured (Overrun) mana, though, I go on land-balance autopilot and fetch a Swamp. I have my required three green, so I should fetch the third Swamp and then I can cast my whole deck, right? Autopilot helps players make sound decisions under the pressure of a clock, but those instincts can be tough to override when it’s correct to do so, and it can cost games.

I drop the Swamp and I could cast the (Kelinore Bat), but I can’t see losing this game if I don’t lose the (Master of the Wild Hunt), so I hold off on tapping out, and pass the turn.

Villain dumps (Elvish Visionary) and (Centaur Courser) onto the table, swings again with the forestwalker, and hands the turn back to me as I sit at 9 life. My land-fetch mistake is nullified by a Forest off the top, and now the question is: do I (Overrun) here, or not?

 R3G1 #6

If Villain had (Lightning Bolt), I would have seen it by now, and I have (Giant Growth) anyway. I count up his toughness, count up my post-(Overrun) power, and with the (Giant Growth) thrown in, that's lethal no matter what the block. Good game.

Overrun is kinda dumb.

R3G2

I bring in (Deathmark) against the green deck, and pull my seven for the draw:

A trivial mulligan. Next!

Ugly, but I decide not to risk a random five over this when I have a turn-three play with any land draw. Villain opens with an (Elvish Visionary) and a (Great Sable Stag), but I find a Forest in my first three draws, so I’m thinking (Giant Spider) will hold off the stag soon enough. I drop the (Vampire Aristocrat) on turn three and wish for more Forests on top, especially having drawn (Master of the Wild Hunt).

My situation is complicated when the (Great Sable Stag) tries on (Oakenform) for size, putting me immediately up against it. I need to draw a Forest, play the (Master of the Wild Hunt), and hope he survives long enough to hunt down the biggest deer he’s ever seen.

R3G2 #1

I pull a (Vampire Aristocrat) and a (Deathmark) in my next two turns, and that is pretty much all she wrote for game two.

Last week in the comments I responded to surprise that I had passed up on an (Oakenform) at one point in the draft, and that I’d started the (Oakenform) I did have in the board. This is the kind of game that a maindeck (Oakenform) supporter might point to as evidence of its awesome might. There’s no question that (Oakenform) can do some serious damage, but Villain got quite lucky for it to be as good as it was, here. With (Oakenform) on anything but (Great Sable Stag), I’m either going to get a 2:1 with a (Giant Growth) play, or with the (Deathmark) I drew. I also had outs if I pulled some land to set up my green guys, or even a simple (Deadly Recluse).

I can appreciate (Oakenform)’s home-run potential, I’m just not generally willing to risk the brutal strikeouts unless the matchup is favorable.

R3G3

On the play this time, I draw a fresh seven:

Yuck, more punishment for running (Overrun) in a deck with (Vampire Nocturnus) and (Tendrils of Corruption). A random six, please.

There's some flood potential here, but it's better than a random five. Let's make it work! Villain has a turn-two (Rampant Growth), and my first play is the (Borderland Ranger). What’s the correct land to fetch?

R3G3 #1

With my double tendrils and the (Vampire Nocturnus) there are more spells that want a Swamp, but the best color-hungry spell wants another Forest. I'm way more likely to draw another Forest before I draw (Overrun), though, so I fetch a Swamp. Even if I do draw the (Overrun) right away, I probably wouldn’t want to play it for several more turns anyway, whereas a tendrils off the top could be useful immediately.

Villain casts (Emerald Oryx) for the ten-turn clock, but I have a (Deathmark) in hand so I’m unconcerned. I pull a Forest to render the ranger decision moot, and plot my fourth turn. What's the plan?

R3G3 #2

I figure I'll be (Deathmark)ing the oryx this turn, but should I telegraph the (Giant growth) and attack, giving him a chance to trade his forestwalker for my pump spell instead? I think so, because I would bluff the (Giant Growth) in this spot most of the time anyway. I mean, who is going to put their unblockable 2/3 in front of an attacking 2/2 while tapped out?

R3G3 #3

OK, this guy, I guess! I'm happy to hold on to the (Deathmark) and use up the (Giant Growth) instead, I just wish I had something else to do this turn.

I hope for a nice, juicy (Deathmark) target, but all Villain can muster is a (Birds of Paradise). I draw (Giant Spider), swing with the ranger, and cast the obvious (Stampeding Rhino). Villain only manages another (Rampant Growth), and I’m left wondering whether it’s legitimate flood, or if I’m being set up for an (Earthquake). I draw more land, attack, and have to decide whether or not I’m playing around the rare, or running out the (Giant Spider).

R3G3 #4

Despite having just been burned by overcommitting against (Planar Cleansing), this feels like a less-sophisticated opponent given the oryx block, and I don’t fear the sweeper (more cowbell!) here the way I should have in round two. The spider comes down. Villain can only manage a (Sparkmage Apprentice) to chump alongside the (Birds of Paradise), and after I play my freshly-drawn (Kelinore Bat) with (Deathmark) at the ready, Villain untaps, draws, and concedes.

I end up pulling the same number of packs in this Swiss as I would have in a 43 with that round-two loss, but that extra match means something to me. Not only am I trying to learn a new format, but I only have so many three-hour chunks to set aside for drafts in my life. I’m not in a place where, after a round-one loss in an 84 or 43, it’s a given that I can just jump back into a queue. Frequently, that was my one window of opportunity for the night, and I find it very frustrating and unfulfilling to set aside that time and end up playing fewer than three matches.

Which brings me to…

Bonus Exercise

Last week I asked what your P1P2 would be from the following pack after first-picking (Ant Queen) and passing (Doom Blade), (Giant Spider), (Black Knight), (Pyroclasm), (Snapping Drake), (Wall of Bone), (Centaur Courser), (Warpath Ghoul), and (Deadly Recluse).

  Pack 1 pick 2:

General consensus in the comments was to take the (Doom Blade), and that is certainly a justified choice. We did just pass a lot of good black, though, including another (Doom Blade). While it’s more important to read the signals from the right than to send signals to the left (you get two packs from the right, and only one from the left), it would certainly send a strong signal to pass a second (Doom Blade). To that end, we passed no good white in the first pack, and we could take the (Pacifism) and reap the rewards of cutting white ((Safe Passage) is good, but I wouldn’t call it a signal). I normally don’t like (mana=g)(mana=w) in limited that much, but white has such good removal in M10 that I think it’s a better combo than it has been in other sets.

The card I ended up taking though—and I wasn’t completely alone in this—was the (Air Elemental). I feel like (Air Elemental) is underappreciated, particularly in comparison to its white uncommmon counterpart, (Serra Angel). I grant that (Serra Angel) is in a stronger color, and that vigilance isn’t meaningless, but it feels like many players who jump on Serra like a bomb will pass on the “blue angel” without much thought, when an unanswered (Air Elemental) will win a game just as fast as an unanswered Serra.

And that’s really the heart of it for me: (Air Elemental) is a win condition. In the “Bombs, Removal, Evasion” progression for drafting, (Air Elemental) may not be a full-on bomb, but it is certainly better than mere “evasion,” too, and I put it right on par with the best removal in the set. Between sending a strong signal downstream and picking up a second creature in as many picks with the ability to win a game on its own, I went with the blue flyer, despite some hesitancy about playing a color combination that has trouble with opposing bombs when they hit the table.

So how did I do?

I ended up with a solid blue-green build, splashing black for a (Doom Blade) and a (Gravedigger) with good fixing. I had (Sleep), (Merfolk Looter), (Snapping Drake)s, some countermagic, green beef, etc. I got blown out in the first game by (Siege-Gang Commander), and in the second game by a (Mind Control) on my (Air Elemental) (et tu, blue angel?) after (Pyroclasm) had wiped the rest of my board.

And I felt cheated. Not by my opponent, of course, but by the 84 format. Two games and done with a deck and archetype I really wanted to take for a spin in this new format. For better of for worse, though, I was annihilated so quickly, I was able to jump into another 84 right after. As if seeking a second chance to prove itself, pack one contained an (Air Elemental), with no real contest from any other card:

  Pack 1 pick 1:

  My Pick:
 

  Pack 1 pick 2:
 

What’s your P1P2 from this pack with an (Air Elemental) in your pile? Join me next week, when I’ll take you through the rest of this draft and my round-one showdown!

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